Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026 at 77% implied probability, driven by NASA's Sentry system showing zero potential impactors for the year amid advanced near-Earth object (NEO) detection networks like ATLAS and Pan-STARRS identifying record numbers of asteroids. Recent safe close approaches in March-April 2026—such as house-sized 2026 GD at 156,000 miles and bus-sized 2026 EG1—underscore effective planetary defense monitoring, with no airbursts or ground strikes matching the threshold (equivalent to a 10-15 meter bolide). The residual 23% "Yes" reflects uncertainty over undetected smaller NEOs, as historical events like Chelyabinsk evaded pre-entry tracking; ongoing CNEOS updates and DART mission insights continue bolstering confidence through year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
$144,910 Обс.
$144,910 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$144,910 Обс.
$144,910 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026 at 77% implied probability, driven by NASA's Sentry system showing zero potential impactors for the year amid advanced near-Earth object (NEO) detection networks like ATLAS and Pan-STARRS identifying record numbers of asteroids. Recent safe close approaches in March-April 2026—such as house-sized 2026 GD at 156,000 miles and bus-sized 2026 EG1—underscore effective planetary defense monitoring, with no airbursts or ground strikes matching the threshold (equivalent to a 10-15 meter bolide). The residual 23% "Yes" reflects uncertainty over undetected smaller NEOs, as historical events like Chelyabinsk evaded pre-entry tracking; ongoing CNEOS updates and DART mission insights continue bolstering confidence through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Обсяг
$144,910Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026 at 77% implied probability, driven by NASA's Sentry system showing zero potential impactors for the year amid advanced near-Earth object (NEO) detection networks like ATLAS and Pan-STARRS identifying record numbers of asteroids. Recent safe close approaches in March-April 2026—such as house-sized 2026 GD at 156,000 miles and bus-sized 2026 EG1—underscore effective planetary defense monitoring, with no airbursts or ground strikes matching the threshold (equivalent to a 10-15 meter bolide). The residual 23% "Yes" reflects uncertainty over undetected smaller NEOs, as historical events like Chelyabinsk evaded pre-entry tracking; ongoing CNEOS updates and DART mission insights continue bolstering confidence through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Обсяг
$144,910Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026 at 77% implied probability, driven by NASA's Sentry system showing zero potential impactors for the year amid advanced near-Earth object (NEO) detection networks like ATLAS and Pan-STARRS identifying record numbers of asteroids. Recent safe close approaches in March-April 2026—such as house-sized 2026 GD at 156,000 miles and bus-sized 2026 EG1—underscore effective planetary defense monitoring, with no airbursts or ground strikes matching the threshold (equivalent to a 10-15 meter bolide). The residual 23% "Yes" reflects uncertainty over undetected smaller NEOs, as historical events like Chelyabinsk evaded pre-entry tracking; ongoing CNEOS updates and DART mission insights continue bolstering confidence through year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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