Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and global networks shows no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) on collision trajectories for 2026, underpinning traders’ 95.7% implied probability of no 100kt-scale event. Objects releasing roughly 100kt TNT equivalent, similar in energy to the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide, follow statistical recurrence intervals of decades to centuries, with most small impactors burning up harmlessly or striking oceans. Continuous Sentry and Scout systems track orbits and close approaches, ruling out catalogued threats through at least the coming century. A realistic shift could occur only if a previously undetected small asteroid or long-period comet evades early surveys and impacts, though current observational coverage makes this highly improbable before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
5% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 30, 2026
5% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and global networks shows no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) on collision trajectories for 2026, underpinning traders’ 95.7% implied probability of no 100kt-scale event. Objects releasing roughly 100kt TNT equivalent, similar in energy to the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide, follow statistical recurrence intervals of decades to centuries, with most small impactors burning up harmlessly or striking oceans. Continuous Sentry and Scout systems track orbits and close approaches, ruling out catalogued threats through at least the coming century. A realistic shift could occur only if a previously undetected small asteroid or long-period comet evades early surveys and impacts, though current observational coverage makes this highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Обсяг
$8,902Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and global networks shows no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) on collision trajectories for 2026, underpinning traders’ 95.7% implied probability of no 100kt-scale event. Objects releasing roughly 100kt TNT equivalent, similar in energy to the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide, follow statistical recurrence intervals of decades to centuries, with most small impactors burning up harmlessly or striking oceans. Continuous Sentry and Scout systems track orbits and close approaches, ruling out catalogued threats through at least the coming century. A realistic shift could occur only if a previously undetected small asteroid or long-period comet evades early surveys and impacts, though current observational coverage makes this highly improbable before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Обсяг
$8,902Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive monitoring by NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and global networks shows no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) on collision trajectories for 2026, underpinning traders’ 95.7% implied probability of no 100kt-scale event. Objects releasing roughly 100kt TNT equivalent, similar in energy to the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide, follow statistical recurrence intervals of decades to centuries, with most small impactors burning up harmlessly or striking oceans. Continuous Sentry and Scout systems track orbits and close approaches, ruling out catalogued threats through at least the coming century. A realistic shift could occur only if a previously undetected small asteroid or long-period comet evades early surveys and impacts, though current observational coverage makes this highly improbable before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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