Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a market-implied 58.5% probability for no meteor airburst reaching 5 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball data showing such events occur roughly once every 1–2 years globally, corresponding to undetected 4–7 meter sporadic meteoroids. Q1 2026 featured a record surge in reported fireballs per American Meteor Society analysis—2,322 events with elevated large-end activity and sonic booms—but none exceeded 0.25 kt, as in the Ohio and Houston bolides. No tracked near-Earth objects pose impact risks at this scale, underscoring inherent uncertainty in unobservable small meteoroid flux; ongoing Lyrid shower monitoring and CNEOS updates could shift odds as the year progresses.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$292,028 Обс.
$292,028 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$292,028 Обс.
$292,028 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a market-implied 58.5% probability for no meteor airburst reaching 5 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball data showing such events occur roughly once every 1–2 years globally, corresponding to undetected 4–7 meter sporadic meteoroids. Q1 2026 featured a record surge in reported fireballs per American Meteor Society analysis—2,322 events with elevated large-end activity and sonic booms—but none exceeded 0.25 kt, as in the Ohio and Houston bolides. No tracked near-Earth objects pose impact risks at this scale, underscoring inherent uncertainty in unobservable small meteoroid flux; ongoing Lyrid shower monitoring and CNEOS updates could shift odds as the year progresses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Обсяг
$292,028Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a market-implied 58.5% probability for no meteor airburst reaching 5 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball data showing such events occur roughly once every 1–2 years globally, corresponding to undetected 4–7 meter sporadic meteoroids. Q1 2026 featured a record surge in reported fireballs per American Meteor Society analysis—2,322 events with elevated large-end activity and sonic booms—but none exceeded 0.25 kt, as in the Ohio and Houston bolides. No tracked near-Earth objects pose impact risks at this scale, underscoring inherent uncertainty in unobservable small meteoroid flux; ongoing Lyrid shower monitoring and CNEOS updates could shift odds as the year progresses.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Обсяг
$292,028Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a market-implied 58.5% probability for no meteor airburst reaching 5 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball data showing such events occur roughly once every 1–2 years globally, corresponding to undetected 4–7 meter sporadic meteoroids. Q1 2026 featured a record surge in reported fireballs per American Meteor Society analysis—2,322 events with elevated large-end activity and sonic booms—but none exceeded 0.25 kt, as in the Ohio and Houston bolides. No tracked near-Earth objects pose impact risks at this scale, underscoring inherent uncertainty in unobservable small meteoroid flux; ongoing Lyrid shower monitoring and CNEOS updates could shift odds as the year progresses.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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