No leads the market at 73% implied probability because no known near-Earth objects are projected to produce a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, consistent with NASA and JPL assessments of current orbital data. Historical frequency supports this outlook: meter-scale objects capable of 5 kt TNT-equivalent explosions occur only a few times per decade on average, while the recent uptick in reported fireballs reflects smaller, pebble- to few-meter bodies that fall well below the energy threshold. Elevated Q1 2026 AMS detections remain statistically notable yet confined to non-hazardous sizes, with no model runs or observational updates indicating an imminent larger impactor. Traders are weighting these base rates and the absence of new threats over short-term sighting noise ahead of year-end resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
$306,607 Обс.
$306,607 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
$306,607 Обс.
$306,607 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No leads the market at 73% implied probability because no known near-Earth objects are projected to produce a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, consistent with NASA and JPL assessments of current orbital data. Historical frequency supports this outlook: meter-scale objects capable of 5 kt TNT-equivalent explosions occur only a few times per decade on average, while the recent uptick in reported fireballs reflects smaller, pebble- to few-meter bodies that fall well below the energy threshold. Elevated Q1 2026 AMS detections remain statistically notable yet confined to non-hazardous sizes, with no model runs or observational updates indicating an imminent larger impactor. Traders are weighting these base rates and the absence of new threats over short-term sighting noise ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Обсяг
$306,607Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No leads the market at 73% implied probability because no known near-Earth objects are projected to produce a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, consistent with NASA and JPL assessments of current orbital data. Historical frequency supports this outlook: meter-scale objects capable of 5 kt TNT-equivalent explosions occur only a few times per decade on average, while the recent uptick in reported fireballs reflects smaller, pebble- to few-meter bodies that fall well below the energy threshold. Elevated Q1 2026 AMS detections remain statistically notable yet confined to non-hazardous sizes, with no model runs or observational updates indicating an imminent larger impactor. Traders are weighting these base rates and the absence of new threats over short-term sighting noise ahead of year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Обсяг
$306,607Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No leads the market at 73% implied probability because no known near-Earth objects are projected to produce a 5-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026, consistent with NASA and JPL assessments of current orbital data. Historical frequency supports this outlook: meter-scale objects capable of 5 kt TNT-equivalent explosions occur only a few times per decade on average, while the recent uptick in reported fireballs reflects smaller, pebble- to few-meter bodies that fall well below the energy threshold. Elevated Q1 2026 AMS detections remain statistically notable yet confined to non-hazardous sizes, with no model runs or observational updates indicating an imminent larger impactor. Traders are weighting these base rates and the absence of new threats over short-term sighting noise ahead of year-end resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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