NASA's ongoing asteroid detection and tracking programs, including optical telescopes and radar systems, have identified no near-Earth objects capable of delivering a 1-megaton impact this year. Small fireballs like the March 2026 Cleveland event released energies in the tens of tons of TNT, far below threshold, while all cataloged close approaches through August remain non-impacting. This continuous monitoring by established observatories underpins the 98.5% market-implied odds on "No," reflecting traders' assessment of verified orbital data. Late-year discoveries of small, previously undetected objects could theoretically alter trajectories, though historical patterns show such finds rarely exceed airburst scales without prior warning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2% шанс
$116,337 Обс.
$116,337 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
2% шанс
$116,337 Обс.
$116,337 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's ongoing asteroid detection and tracking programs, including optical telescopes and radar systems, have identified no near-Earth objects capable of delivering a 1-megaton impact this year. Small fireballs like the March 2026 Cleveland event released energies in the tens of tons of TNT, far below threshold, while all cataloged close approaches through August remain non-impacting. This continuous monitoring by established observatories underpins the 98.5% market-implied odds on "No," reflecting traders' assessment of verified orbital data. Late-year discoveries of small, previously undetected objects could theoretically alter trajectories, though historical patterns show such finds rarely exceed airburst scales without prior warning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$116,337Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's ongoing asteroid detection and tracking programs, including optical telescopes and radar systems, have identified no near-Earth objects capable of delivering a 1-megaton impact this year. Small fireballs like the March 2026 Cleveland event released energies in the tens of tons of TNT, far below threshold, while all cataloged close approaches through August remain non-impacting. This continuous monitoring by established observatories underpins the 98.5% market-implied odds on "No," reflecting traders' assessment of verified orbital data. Late-year discoveries of small, previously undetected objects could theoretically alter trajectories, though historical patterns show such finds rarely exceed airburst scales without prior warning.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Обсяг
$116,337Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's ongoing asteroid detection and tracking programs, including optical telescopes and radar systems, have identified no near-Earth objects capable of delivering a 1-megaton impact this year. Small fireballs like the March 2026 Cleveland event released energies in the tens of tons of TNT, far below threshold, while all cataloged close approaches through August remain non-impacting. This continuous monitoring by established observatories underpins the 98.5% market-implied odds on "No," reflecting traders' assessment of verified orbital data. Late-year discoveries of small, previously undetected objects could theoretically alter trajectories, though historical patterns show such finds rarely exceed airburst scales without prior warning.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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