Recent explosive activity at Krakatau (Anak Krakatau) in early September 2026, with sustained ash plumes reaching approximately 15 km and estimated ejecta volumes near the 0.1 km³ threshold, has emerged as the key driver shifting trader consensus toward one VEI ≥4 event for the year. This sub-Plinian eruption meets core VEI 4 criteria on the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program scale—plume height above 10 km and sufficient tephra volume—while most other 2026 activity, including ongoing Kīlauea effusive episodes and Semeru/Manam strombolian phases, remains below that intensity. Historical rates average roughly 0.5–1 such eruptions annually, supporting the narrow edge for exactly one outcome amid lagging official confirmations and limited additional unrest signals, such as elevated alerts at Tokachi without confirmed escalation. New GVP data releases and model updates through year-end remain the primary variables that could alter the current market-implied odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоСкільки великих вивержень вулканів (VEI ≥4) у 2026 році?
Скільки великих вивержень вулканів (VEI ≥4) у 2026 році?
1 56%
0 43%
2 6.9%
3 5.3%
$1,164,346 Обс.
$1,164,346 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0
36%
1
55%
2
7%
3
5%
4
1%
5+
1%
1 56%
0 43%
2 6.9%
3 5.3%
$1,164,346 Обс.
$1,164,346 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$499,872 Обс.
36%
1
$274,845 Обс.
55%
2
$46,002 Обс.
7%
3
$32,113 Обс.
5%
4
$35,623 Обс.
1%
5+
$275,891 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Recent explosive activity at Krakatau (Anak Krakatau) in early September 2026, with sustained ash plumes reaching approximately 15 km and estimated ejecta volumes near the 0.1 km³ threshold, has emerged as the key driver shifting trader consensus toward one VEI ≥4 event for the year. This sub-Plinian eruption meets core VEI 4 criteria on the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program scale—plume height above 10 km and sufficient tephra volume—while most other 2026 activity, including ongoing Kīlauea effusive episodes and Semeru/Manam strombolian phases, remains below that intensity. Historical rates average roughly 0.5–1 such eruptions annually, supporting the narrow edge for exactly one outcome amid lagging official confirmations and limited additional unrest signals, such as elevated alerts at Tokachi without confirmed escalation. New GVP data releases and model updates through year-end remain the primary variables that could alter the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,164,346Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Recent explosive activity at Krakatau (Anak Krakatau) in early September 2026, with sustained ash plumes reaching approximately 15 km and estimated ejecta volumes near the 0.1 km³ threshold, has emerged as the key driver shifting trader consensus toward one VEI ≥4 event for the year. This sub-Plinian eruption meets core VEI 4 criteria on the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program scale—plume height above 10 km and sufficient tephra volume—while most other 2026 activity, including ongoing Kīlauea effusive episodes and Semeru/Manam strombolian phases, remains below that intensity. Historical rates average roughly 0.5–1 such eruptions annually, supporting the narrow edge for exactly one outcome amid lagging official confirmations and limited additional unrest signals, such as elevated alerts at Tokachi without confirmed escalation. New GVP data releases and model updates through year-end remain the primary variables that could alter the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,164,346Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Recent explosive activity at Krakatau (Anak Krakatau) in early September 2026, with sustained ash plumes reaching approximately 15 km and estimated ejecta volumes near the 0.1 km³ threshold, has emerged as the key driver shifting trader consensus toward one VEI ≥4 event for the year. This sub-Plinian eruption meets core VEI 4 criteria on the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program scale—plume height above 10 km and sufficient tephra volume—while most other 2026 activity, including ongoing Kīlauea effusive episodes and Semeru/Manam strombolian phases, remains below that intensity. Historical rates average roughly 0.5–1 such eruptions annually, supporting the narrow edge for exactly one outcome amid lagging official confirmations and limited additional unrest signals, such as elevated alerts at Tokachi without confirmed escalation. New GVP data releases and model updates through year-end remain the primary variables that could alter the current market-implied odds.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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