Recent major explosive activity at Anak Krakatau in early September 2026, producing sustained ash plumes reaching 15 km and generating volcanic lightning, has shifted trader focus toward exactly one VEI ≥4 event for the year. On the Volcanic Explosivity Index, such plume heights and ejecta volumes near or above 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent meet the threshold for VEI 4 classification, consistent with Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program criteria used for market resolution. Through mid-2026, official records showed no confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions amid 47 total events, most limited to VEI ≤3 or effusive styles at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru. Historical annual rates average roughly 0.5–1 such events, with quiet periods common absent caldera unrest or major stratospheric signals, keeping the probability of zero or multiple outcomes secondary unless new monitoring data revise the Krakatau assessment or additional intensifications occur before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоСкільки великих вивержень вулканів (VEI ≥4) у 2026 році?
Скільки великих вивержень вулканів (VEI ≥4) у 2026 році?
1 56%
0 43%
3 7.4%
2 6.8%
$1,164,346 Обс.
$1,164,346 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0
38%
1
54%
2
7%
3
7%
4
1%
5+
1%
1 56%
0 43%
3 7.4%
2 6.8%
$1,164,346 Обс.
$1,164,346 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$499,872 Обс.
38%
1
$274,845 Обс.
54%
2
$46,002 Обс.
7%
3
$32,113 Обс.
7%
4
$35,623 Обс.
1%
5+
$275,891 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Recent major explosive activity at Anak Krakatau in early September 2026, producing sustained ash plumes reaching 15 km and generating volcanic lightning, has shifted trader focus toward exactly one VEI ≥4 event for the year. On the Volcanic Explosivity Index, such plume heights and ejecta volumes near or above 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent meet the threshold for VEI 4 classification, consistent with Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program criteria used for market resolution. Through mid-2026, official records showed no confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions amid 47 total events, most limited to VEI ≤3 or effusive styles at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru. Historical annual rates average roughly 0.5–1 such events, with quiet periods common absent caldera unrest or major stratospheric signals, keeping the probability of zero or multiple outcomes secondary unless new monitoring data revise the Krakatau assessment or additional intensifications occur before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,164,346Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Recent major explosive activity at Anak Krakatau in early September 2026, producing sustained ash plumes reaching 15 km and generating volcanic lightning, has shifted trader focus toward exactly one VEI ≥4 event for the year. On the Volcanic Explosivity Index, such plume heights and ejecta volumes near or above 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent meet the threshold for VEI 4 classification, consistent with Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program criteria used for market resolution. Through mid-2026, official records showed no confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions amid 47 total events, most limited to VEI ≤3 or effusive styles at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru. Historical annual rates average roughly 0.5–1 such events, with quiet periods common absent caldera unrest or major stratospheric signals, keeping the probability of zero or multiple outcomes secondary unless new monitoring data revise the Krakatau assessment or additional intensifications occur before year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,164,346Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Recent major explosive activity at Anak Krakatau in early September 2026, producing sustained ash plumes reaching 15 km and generating volcanic lightning, has shifted trader focus toward exactly one VEI ≥4 event for the year. On the Volcanic Explosivity Index, such plume heights and ejecta volumes near or above 0.1 km³ dense-rock equivalent meet the threshold for VEI 4 classification, consistent with Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program criteria used for market resolution. Through mid-2026, official records showed no confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions amid 47 total events, most limited to VEI ≤3 or effusive styles at sites like Kīlauea and Semeru. Historical annual rates average roughly 0.5–1 such events, with quiet periods common absent caldera unrest or major stratospheric signals, keeping the probability of zero or multiple outcomes secondary unless new monitoring data revise the Krakatau assessment or additional intensifications occur before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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