Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude experiencing downtime on 12+ days in May (67.5% implied probability), driven by Anthropic's recent surge in service disruptions that have eroded the large language model's reliability. In the past month, Claude.ai, its API, and Claude Code suffered major outages on April 15 (40-minute full downtime plus 73 minutes partial), April 13 (intermittent 500 errors), April 6-7, and scattered issues on April 16, following a pattern of five-plus incidents in March that dropped Q1 uptime below 99%. Frequent elevated error rates, as logged on status.claude.com and Downdetector, signal ongoing infrastructure strain amid rapid AI scaling and model updates like Opus 4.6. Lower odds for fewer days (e.g., 9-11 at 22.5%) reflect skepticism on quick fixes, though potential backend optimizations could shift sentiment ahead of May.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Claude go down on __ days in May?
Will Claude go down on __ days in May?
12+ 67%
9-11 27%
6-8 25%
3-5 24%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 31, 2026
0-2
10%
3-5
16%
6-8
16%
9-11
22%
12+
67%
12+ 67%
9-11 27%
6-8 25%
3-5 24%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
May 31, 2026
0-2
$219 Обс.
10%
3-5
$633 Обс.
16%
6-8
$37 Обс.
16%
9-11
$50 Обс.
22%
12+
$341 Обс.
67%
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude experiencing downtime on 12+ days in May (67.5% implied probability), driven by Anthropic's recent surge in service disruptions that have eroded the large language model's reliability. In the past month, Claude.ai, its API, and Claude Code suffered major outages on April 15 (40-minute full downtime plus 73 minutes partial), April 13 (intermittent 500 errors), April 6-7, and scattered issues on April 16, following a pattern of five-plus incidents in March that dropped Q1 uptime below 99%. Frequent elevated error rates, as logged on status.claude.com and Downdetector, signal ongoing infrastructure strain amid rapid AI scaling and model updates like Opus 4.6. Lower odds for fewer days (e.g., 9-11 at 22.5%) reflect skepticism on quick fixes, though potential backend optimizations could shift sentiment ahead of May.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Ринок відкрито: Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,281Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude experiencing downtime on 12+ days in May (67.5% implied probability), driven by Anthropic's recent surge in service disruptions that have eroded the large language model's reliability. In the past month, Claude.ai, its API, and Claude Code suffered major outages on April 15 (40-minute full downtime plus 73 minutes partial), April 13 (intermittent 500 errors), April 6-7, and scattered issues on April 16, following a pattern of five-plus incidents in March that dropped Q1 uptime below 99%. Frequent elevated error rates, as logged on status.claude.com and Downdetector, signal ongoing infrastructure strain amid rapid AI scaling and model updates like Opus 4.6. Lower odds for fewer days (e.g., 9-11 at 22.5%) reflect skepticism on quick fixes, though potential backend optimizations could shift sentiment ahead of May.
This market will resolve according to the number of days in the month of May during which Claude (claude.ai) experiences any downtime.
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Claude will be considered to have experienced downtime on a given day if the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/) displays that day’s status box as any color other than green once the day’s status box is finalized. Daily status boxes for Claude components other than claude.ai will not impact this market’s resolution.
A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box has a display color other than the grey color used for days which have not yet begun.
This market will resolve once the final day in May 2026 is finalized. If the final day in May 2026 has not been finalized by June 7, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the days in May which have been finalized up to that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the Claude Status historical uptime page for the claude.ai component (https://status.claude.com/uptime/).
Обсяг
$1,281Дата завершення
May 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 30, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Claude experiencing downtime on 12+ days in May (67.5% implied probability), driven by Anthropic's recent surge in service disruptions that have eroded the large language model's reliability. In the past month, Claude.ai, its API, and Claude Code suffered major outages on April 15 (40-minute full downtime plus 73 minutes partial), April 13 (intermittent 500 errors), April 6-7, and scattered issues on April 16, following a pattern of five-plus incidents in March that dropped Q1 uptime below 99%. Frequent elevated error rates, as logged on status.claude.com and Downdetector, signal ongoing infrastructure strain amid rapid AI scaling and model updates like Opus 4.6. Lower odds for fewer days (e.g., 9-11 at 22.5%) reflect skepticism on quick fixes, though potential backend optimizations could shift sentiment ahead of May.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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