State Rep. Rhett Marques leads trader consensus at 55.5% implied probability in the AL-01 Republican primary for the open seat vacated by Barry Moore's Senate bid, ahead of former Rep. Jerry Carl at 34.5%, as recent Q1 fundraising revealed Marques' superior $826,000 cash on hand despite Carl's slight raise edge, enabling aggressive final advertising before the May 19 vote or potential June 16 runoff. A March 31-April 2 PI Polling survey of 505 likely voters showed Carl narrowly ahead 23%-19% amid 50% undecideds, but Marques' endorsements from Sen. Katie Britt and House Speaker Nathaniel Ledbetter signal momentum in this tightening contest, diverging from polls while other candidates like Austin Sidwell and Joshua McKee trail with fragmented support. The April 15 candidate forum highlighted attack lines, including an ALFA endorsement spat favoring Carl.