Jerry Carl leads the AL-01 Republican primary market at 76% implied probability, driven by his 40.3% to 31.1% finish over Rhett Marques in the May 19 primary among seven candidates. Neither reached a majority, triggering a June 16 runoff under Alabama rules. Carl's stronger geographic support and prior congressional experience in the district underpin trader positioning, while Marques closed ground in earlier polling but trailed in the actual vote count. Minor candidates including James Dees, Austin Sidwell, and Joshua McKee remain below 3% each, reflecting limited momentum ahead of the two-candidate contest. Ongoing redistricting litigation has created procedural uncertainty around map validity and election timing, yet the May results have anchored current market expectations for the runoff outcome.