Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell leads Polymarket trader consensus at 69% to win the Missouri 1st District Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, buoyed by his 2024 upset victory over challenger Cori Bush and strong incumbency advantages in a safely Democratic seat. Despite a Bush campaign poll released April 16 showing them statistically tied at 44%-40% among likely primary voters (with Bush holding higher favorability), traders appear skeptical, prioritizing Bell's prior momentum, expected super PAC support from pro-Israel groups like AIPAC that fueled his last win, and historical base rates favoring House incumbents in primaries. Bush's recent endorsements from progressive groups like National Nurses United add competitiveness, but no independent polls confirm a shift.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
MO-01 Democratic Primary Winner
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 4, 2026
Wesley Bell
69%
Cori Bush
32%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 4, 2026
Wesley Bell
$2,925 KL.
69%
Cori Bush
$2,474 KL.
32%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell leads Polymarket trader consensus at 69% to win the Missouri 1st District Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, buoyed by his 2024 upset victory over challenger Cori Bush and strong incumbency advantages in a safely Democratic seat. Despite a Bush campaign poll released April 16 showing them statistically tied at 44%-40% among likely primary voters (with Bush holding higher favorability), traders appear skeptical, prioritizing Bell's prior momentum, expected super PAC support from pro-Israel groups like AIPAC that fueled his last win, and historical base rates favoring House incumbents in primaries. Bush's recent endorsements from progressive groups like National Nurses United add competitiveness, but no independent polls confirm a shift.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Thị trường mở: Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$5,399Ngày kết thúc
Aug 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell leads Polymarket trader consensus at 69% to win the Missouri 1st District Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, buoyed by his 2024 upset victory over challenger Cori Bush and strong incumbency advantages in a safely Democratic seat. Despite a Bush campaign poll released April 16 showing them statistically tied at 44%-40% among likely primary voters (with Bush holding higher favorability), traders appear skeptical, prioritizing Bell's prior momentum, expected super PAC support from pro-Israel groups like AIPAC that fueled his last win, and historical base rates favoring House incumbents in primaries. Bush's recent endorsements from progressive groups like National Nurses United add competitiveness, but no independent polls confirm a shift.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Khối lượng
$5,399Ngày kết thúc
Aug 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 25, 2025, 4:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Wesley Bell leads Polymarket trader consensus at 69% to win the Missouri 1st District Democratic primary on August 4, 2026, buoyed by his 2024 upset victory over challenger Cori Bush and strong incumbency advantages in a safely Democratic seat. Despite a Bush campaign poll released April 16 showing them statistically tied at 44%-40% among likely primary voters (with Bush holding higher favorability), traders appear skeptical, prioritizing Bell's prior momentum, expected super PAC support from pro-Israel groups like AIPAC that fueled his last win, and historical base rates favoring House incumbents in primaries. Bush's recent endorsements from progressive groups like National Nurses United add competitiveness, but no independent polls confirm a shift.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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