Incumbent Ed Case holds a modest edge in the HI-01 Democratic primary, set for August 8, 2026, reflecting trader assessments of his established name recognition, seniority on the Appropriations Committee, and prior primary performance against challengers. State Senator Jarrett Keohokalole has consolidated much of the opposition as the leading alternative, backed by progressive groups critical of Case’s voting record, while lesser-known candidates including Jennifer Booker, Ben Fatula, and Nicholas Kiswanto remain on the ballot but trail significantly. A late-2025 survey showed Case ahead yet short of majority support amid high undecided shares, and national attention has highlighted the contest as one of few vulnerable Democratic primaries. With the vote days away, turnout among core factions and any final endorsements could still shift the narrow margin.