**António Guterres is expected to complete his second five-year term as UN Secretary-General, which ends on December 31, 2026, with no confirmed early departure.** The selection process for his successor formally opened in November 2025, featuring interactive dialogues, a July 2026 town hall, and Security Council straw polls in July and August 2026 among eight candidates, primarily from Latin America, the Caribbean, and Africa. Recent developments include Guterres’s September 2026 public remarks advising his successor to act independently and ongoing General Assembly discussions on the handover, with the new Secretary-General anticipated to assume office in January 2027. The United States has signaled opposition to any temporary extension of Guterres’s tenure beyond the term’s end, while P5 members continue negotiations without evidence of efforts to accelerate his removal. Trader consensus reflected in the 57.5% “No” probability aligns with the absence of resignation announcements, removal proceedings, or acute political crises forcing an early exit, though the market accounts for the inherent uncertainties of multilateral diplomacy and potential late-stage developments before year-end.