Netanyahu faces an outstanding ICC arrest warrant issued in November 2024 for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity tied to Gaza operations, though Israel rejects the court's jurisdiction and no state party has enforced it. Trader probabilities for arrest by late 2026 remain low, reflecting U.S. sanctions on ICC personnel under the Trump administration, explicit federal assurances against detention during his planned September 2026 UN General Assembly visit to New York, and the absence of enforcement mechanisms. Recent developments include New York City Mayor Mamdani's retracted call for local action, Turkey's separate domestic indictment and Interpol red notice request, and the July 2026 removal of ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan over misconduct claims without affecting the warrants. Netanyahu's ongoing Israeli corruption trial continues without imminent custody risks, while his security arrangements and diplomatic travel patterns underscore limited practical avenues for arrest in the near term.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$25,454 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
<1%
December 31
7%
$25,454 KL.
September 30
$19,084 KL.
<1%
December 31
$6,370 KL.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Netanyahu faces an outstanding ICC arrest warrant issued in November 2024 for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity tied to Gaza operations, though Israel rejects the court's jurisdiction and no state party has enforced it. Trader probabilities for arrest by late 2026 remain low, reflecting U.S. sanctions on ICC personnel under the Trump administration, explicit federal assurances against detention during his planned September 2026 UN General Assembly visit to New York, and the absence of enforcement mechanisms. Recent developments include New York City Mayor Mamdani's retracted call for local action, Turkey's separate domestic indictment and Interpol red notice request, and the July 2026 removal of ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan over misconduct claims without affecting the warrants. Netanyahu's ongoing Israeli corruption trial continues without imminent custody risks, while his security arrangements and diplomatic travel patterns underscore limited practical avenues for arrest in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ET
Khối lượng
$25,454Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Netanyahu faces an outstanding ICC arrest warrant issued in November 2024 for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity tied to Gaza operations, though Israel rejects the court's jurisdiction and no state party has enforced it. Trader probabilities for arrest by late 2026 remain low, reflecting U.S. sanctions on ICC personnel under the Trump administration, explicit federal assurances against detention during his planned September 2026 UN General Assembly visit to New York, and the absence of enforcement mechanisms. Recent developments include New York City Mayor Mamdani's retracted call for local action, Turkey's separate domestic indictment and Interpol red notice request, and the July 2026 removal of ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan over misconduct claims without affecting the warrants. Netanyahu's ongoing Israeli corruption trial continues without imminent custody risks, while his security arrangements and diplomatic travel patterns underscore limited practical avenues for arrest in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest occurs when Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities in any jurisdiction, voluntarily or involuntarily, and at least one of the following is true:
(i) Benjamin Netanyahu is criminally booked or processed;
(ii) Benjamin Netanyahu is taken into custody in response to a criminal arrest warrant, criminal charge, indictment, or equivalent criminal charging instrument;
(iii) Benjamin Netanyahu is held for arraignment, bail, extradition, or other criminal court proceedings other than as a witness; or
(iv) Benjamin Netanyahu is transported to a police station, immigration detention center, or equivalent criminal law enforcement center.
The issuance of an arrest warrant, being named in an indictment, or being charged without Benjamin Netanyahu being taken into physical custody will not qualify. The following will not qualify on their own: brief detention, being interviewed or questioned, being searched, house arrest, electronic monitoring, protective custody, witness protection, or medical holds.
Release on bail, recognizance, bond, dismissal of charges, withdrawal of charges, acquittal, pardon, or any other post-arrest development will not affect resolution once a qualifying arrest has occurred.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$25,454Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 20, 2026, 4:33 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Netanyahu faces an outstanding ICC arrest warrant issued in November 2024 for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity tied to Gaza operations, though Israel rejects the court's jurisdiction and no state party has enforced it. Trader probabilities for arrest by late 2026 remain low, reflecting U.S. sanctions on ICC personnel under the Trump administration, explicit federal assurances against detention during his planned September 2026 UN General Assembly visit to New York, and the absence of enforcement mechanisms. Recent developments include New York City Mayor Mamdani's retracted call for local action, Turkey's separate domestic indictment and Interpol red notice request, and the July 2026 removal of ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan over misconduct claims without affecting the warrants. Netanyahu's ongoing Israeli corruption trial continues without imminent custody risks, while his security arrangements and diplomatic travel patterns underscore limited practical avenues for arrest in the near term.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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