Trader sentiment on arrest probabilities before 2027 centers on figures facing active investigations or charges, including Mahmoud Khalil amid campus-related cases, Benjamin Netanyahu with ongoing Israeli proceedings, and U.S. officials such as Susan Rice, James Comey, and John Brennan under potential DOJ scrutiny. The current administration's emphasis on immigration enforcement and federal prosecutions has accelerated actions against certain noncitizens and critics, while Senate dynamics and confirmation processes shape timelines for any new charges. Scheduled court dates, extradition developments, and agency reports on enforcement operations through late 2026 represent near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities across outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWho will be arrested before 2027?
Who will be arrested before 2027?
$126,127 KL.
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
31%
James Clapper
17%
Tom Homan
20%
Brandon Johnson
26%
James Comey
17%
Letitia James
26%
Loretta Lynch
11%
Adam Schiff
8%
Gavin Newsom
8%
Candace Owens
7%
Anthony Fauci
7%
Benjamin Netanyahu
12%
Hillary Clinton
6%
John Kerry
6%
Kash Patel
6%
Lisa Cook
5%
Pam Bondi
5%
Lee Jun-seok
19%
Joe Biden
4%
Bill Clinton
4%
Barack Obama
4%
John Brennan
63%
Mahmoud Khalil
46%
Susan Rice
49%
$126,127 KL.
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$7,985 KL.
31%
James Clapper
$2,665 KL.
17%
Tom Homan
$29,895 KL.
20%
Brandon Johnson
$1,887 KL.
26%
James Comey
$9,244 KL.
17%
Letitia James
$1,340 KL.
26%
Loretta Lynch
$472 KL.
11%
Adam Schiff
$6,790 KL.
8%
Gavin Newsom
$24,879 KL.
8%
Candace Owens
$257 KL.
7%
Anthony Fauci
$8,335 KL.
7%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$275 KL.
12%
Hillary Clinton
$15,653 KL.
6%
John Kerry
$127 KL.
6%
Kash Patel
$213 KL.
6%
Lisa Cook
$639 KL.
5%
Pam Bondi
$1,546 KL.
5%
Lee Jun-seok
$555 KL.
19%
Joe Biden
$2,047 KL.
4%
Bill Clinton
$434 KL.
4%
Barack Obama
$2,857 KL.
4%
John Brennan
$6,677 KL.
63%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,191 KL.
46%
Susan Rice
$262 KL.
49%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on arrest probabilities before 2027 centers on figures facing active investigations or charges, including Mahmoud Khalil amid campus-related cases, Benjamin Netanyahu with ongoing Israeli proceedings, and U.S. officials such as Susan Rice, James Comey, and John Brennan under potential DOJ scrutiny. The current administration's emphasis on immigration enforcement and federal prosecutions has accelerated actions against certain noncitizens and critics, while Senate dynamics and confirmation processes shape timelines for any new charges. Scheduled court dates, extradition developments, and agency reports on enforcement operations through late 2026 represent near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities across outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Khối lượng
$126,127Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment on arrest probabilities before 2027 centers on figures facing active investigations or charges, including Mahmoud Khalil amid campus-related cases, Benjamin Netanyahu with ongoing Israeli proceedings, and U.S. officials such as Susan Rice, James Comey, and John Brennan under potential DOJ scrutiny. The current administration's emphasis on immigration enforcement and federal prosecutions has accelerated actions against certain noncitizens and critics, while Senate dynamics and confirmation processes shape timelines for any new charges. Scheduled court dates, extradition developments, and agency reports on enforcement operations through late 2026 represent near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities across outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$126,127Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment on arrest probabilities before 2027 centers on figures facing active investigations or charges, including Mahmoud Khalil amid campus-related cases, Benjamin Netanyahu with ongoing Israeli proceedings, and U.S. officials such as Susan Rice, James Comey, and John Brennan under potential DOJ scrutiny. The current administration's emphasis on immigration enforcement and federal prosecutions has accelerated actions against certain noncitizens and critics, while Senate dynamics and confirmation processes shape timelines for any new charges. Scheduled court dates, extradition developments, and agency reports on enforcement operations through late 2026 represent near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities across outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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