Trader consensus reflects a 90.5% implied probability against former President Barack Obama's arrest before 2027, anchored by the absence of any formal Department of Justice charges, indictments, or active special counsel proceedings targeting him directly. Despite renewed rhetoric from President Trump and allies like Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard—citing declassified documents on alleged 2016 Russia interference involvement—past probes, including Special Counsel John Durham's, yielded no prosecutable evidence against Obama. Recent developments, such as a Florida grand jury reviewing Obama-era officials like CIA Director John Brennan and the abrupt removal of a key Miami prosecutor on April 18, underscore procedural hurdles and stalled momentum. Statutes of limitations for many claims have expired, with historical precedent showing no former presidents prosecuted for policy-era actions absent extraordinary evidence. Late-breaking indictments or scandals remain possible but face high legal bars.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 90.5% implied probability against former President Barack Obama's arrest before 2027, anchored by the absence of any formal Department of Justice charges, indictments, or active special counsel proceedings targeting him directly. Despite renewed rhetoric from President Trump and allies like Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard—citing declassified documents on alleged 2016 Russia interference involvement—past probes, including Special Counsel John Durham's, yielded no prosecutable evidence against Obama. Recent developments, such as a Florida grand jury reviewing Obama-era officials like CIA Director John Brennan and the abrupt removal of a key Miami prosecutor on April 18, underscore procedural hurdles and stalled momentum. Statutes of limitations for many claims have expired, with historical precedent showing no former presidents prosecuted for policy-era actions absent extraordinary evidence. Late-breaking indictments or scandals remain possible but face high legal bars.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Khối lượng
$4,096Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus reflects a 90.5% implied probability against former President Barack Obama's arrest before 2027, anchored by the absence of any formal Department of Justice charges, indictments, or active special counsel proceedings targeting him directly. Despite renewed rhetoric from President Trump and allies like Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard—citing declassified documents on alleged 2016 Russia interference involvement—past probes, including Special Counsel John Durham's, yielded no prosecutable evidence against Obama. Recent developments, such as a Florida grand jury reviewing Obama-era officials like CIA Director John Brennan and the abrupt removal of a key Miami prosecutor on April 18, underscore procedural hurdles and stalled momentum. Statutes of limitations for many claims have expired, with historical precedent showing no former presidents prosecuted for policy-era actions absent extraordinary evidence. Late-breaking indictments or scandals remain possible but face high legal bars.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$4,096Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects a 90.5% implied probability against former President Barack Obama's arrest before 2027, anchored by the absence of any formal Department of Justice charges, indictments, or active special counsel proceedings targeting him directly. Despite renewed rhetoric from President Trump and allies like Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard—citing declassified documents on alleged 2016 Russia interference involvement—past probes, including Special Counsel John Durham's, yielded no prosecutable evidence against Obama. Recent developments, such as a Florida grand jury reviewing Obama-era officials like CIA Director John Brennan and the abrupt removal of a key Miami prosecutor on April 18, underscore procedural hurdles and stalled momentum. Statutes of limitations for many claims have expired, with historical precedent showing no former presidents prosecuted for policy-era actions absent extraordinary evidence. Late-breaking indictments or scandals remain possible but face high legal bars.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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