Traders assign a 97.2% implied probability that former President Barack Obama will not face arrest before 2027 due to the absence of any indictments, arrest warrants, or active criminal proceedings against him personally. Ongoing Department of Justice reviews and grand jury examinations have focused on Obama-era officials tied to 2016 Russia-related intelligence matters, yet these efforts have produced no charges against Obama and have encountered hurdles including statutes of limitations and considerations of official-act immunity. With only months remaining in the resolution window, the market consensus aligns with the lack of verifiable legal developments that would enable an arrest in that timeframe, though late-stage referrals or unanticipated court actions remain theoretical variables that could theoretically alter the trajectory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật3% khả năng
$21,908 KL.
$21,908 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
3% khả năng
$21,908 KL.
$21,908 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 97.2% implied probability that former President Barack Obama will not face arrest before 2027 due to the absence of any indictments, arrest warrants, or active criminal proceedings against him personally. Ongoing Department of Justice reviews and grand jury examinations have focused on Obama-era officials tied to 2016 Russia-related intelligence matters, yet these efforts have produced no charges against Obama and have encountered hurdles including statutes of limitations and considerations of official-act immunity. With only months remaining in the resolution window, the market consensus aligns with the lack of verifiable legal developments that would enable an arrest in that timeframe, though late-stage referrals or unanticipated court actions remain theoretical variables that could theoretically alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ET
Khối lượng
$21,908Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 97.2% implied probability that former President Barack Obama will not face arrest before 2027 due to the absence of any indictments, arrest warrants, or active criminal proceedings against him personally. Ongoing Department of Justice reviews and grand jury examinations have focused on Obama-era officials tied to 2016 Russia-related intelligence matters, yet these efforts have produced no charges against Obama and have encountered hurdles including statutes of limitations and considerations of official-act immunity. With only months remaining in the resolution window, the market consensus aligns with the lack of verifiable legal developments that would enable an arrest in that timeframe, though late-stage referrals or unanticipated court actions remain theoretical variables that could theoretically alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$21,908Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 1:40 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.2% implied probability that former President Barack Obama will not face arrest before 2027 due to the absence of any indictments, arrest warrants, or active criminal proceedings against him personally. Ongoing Department of Justice reviews and grand jury examinations have focused on Obama-era officials tied to 2016 Russia-related intelligence matters, yet these efforts have produced no charges against Obama and have encountered hurdles including statutes of limitations and considerations of official-act immunity. With only months remaining in the resolution window, the market consensus aligns with the lack of verifiable legal developments that would enable an arrest in that timeframe, though late-stage referrals or unanticipated court actions remain theoretical variables that could theoretically alter the trajectory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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