Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Likud projected at 20–27 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36), with multiple late-July and August surveys placing the party at 22–24 amid gains by Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and other opposition groups. Recent Likud primaries with low turnout and internal disputes have coincided with these results, reflecting sustained voter shifts tied to security conditions, coalition dynamics, and competition for centrist and right-leaning support. The opposition bloc has held a narrow lead in seat projections in several surveys, though neither side consistently reaches a majority. These trends underpin trader consensus on a high likelihood of seat losses, with late-campaign shifts in turnout or alliances remaining the primary variables that could alter the outcome.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật92% khả năng
$11,920 KL.
$11,920 KL.
Oct 26, 2026
92% khả năng
$11,920 KL.
$11,920 KL.
Oct 26, 2026
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Likud projected at 20–27 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36), with multiple late-July and August surveys placing the party at 22–24 amid gains by Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and other opposition groups. Recent Likud primaries with low turnout and internal disputes have coincided with these results, reflecting sustained voter shifts tied to security conditions, coalition dynamics, and competition for centrist and right-leaning support. The opposition bloc has held a narrow lead in seat projections in several surveys, though neither side consistently reaches a majority. These trends underpin trader consensus on a high likelihood of seat losses, with late-campaign shifts in turnout or alliances remaining the primary variables that could alter the outcome.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ET
Khối lượng
$11,920Ngày kết thúc
Oct 27, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Likud projected at 20–27 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36), with multiple late-July and August surveys placing the party at 22–24 amid gains by Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and other opposition groups. Recent Likud primaries with low turnout and internal disputes have coincided with these results, reflecting sustained voter shifts tied to security conditions, coalition dynamics, and competition for centrist and right-leaning support. The opposition bloc has held a narrow lead in seat projections in several surveys, though neither side consistently reaches a majority. These trends underpin trader consensus on a high likelihood of seat losses, with late-campaign shifts in turnout or alliances remaining the primary variables that could alter the outcome.
Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Likud party wins less than 32 seats in the Israeli Knesset in this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the Likud party contests this election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the Likud party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list on which it contests the election, will be counted.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Israel’s Central Election Committee (Va'adet HaBehirot HaMerkazit) (https://www.gov.il/en/departments/central-elections-committee/govil-landing-page).
Khối lượng
$11,920Ngày kết thúc
Oct 27, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent polling ahead of Israel's October 27, 2026 Knesset election shows Likud projected at 20–27 seats, well below its current 32 (or merged 36), with multiple late-July and August surveys placing the party at 22–24 amid gains by Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party and other opposition groups. Recent Likud primaries with low turnout and internal disputes have coincided with these results, reflecting sustained voter shifts tied to security conditions, coalition dynamics, and competition for centrist and right-leaning support. The opposition bloc has held a narrow lead in seat projections in several surveys, though neither side consistently reaches a majority. These trends underpin trader consensus on a high likelihood of seat losses, with late-campaign shifts in turnout or alliances remaining the primary variables that could alter the outcome.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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