The closely matched Polymarket odds centered on 4.1% and 4.2% for the August unemployment rate reflect the mixed July employment report, where the rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% due to a 264,000 drop in the labor force even as nonfarm payrolls declined 23,000. This follows a cooling trend with participation at 61.4%, its lowest since early 2021, and a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium amid modest job gains concentrated in select sectors. Traders' skin-in-the-game consensus incorporates forward-looking factors such as potential monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, while acknowledging downside risks from softening demand. The August data release on September 4 serves as the primary near-term catalyst that could shift implied probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật4.1% 35%
4.2% 27%
4.0% 19%
4.3% 14%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 4, 2026
≤3.8%
2%
3.9%
2%
4.0%
19%
4.1%
35%
4.2%
27%
4.3%
14%
4.4%
6%
4.5%
4%
≥4.6%
2%
4.1% 35%
4.2% 27%
4.0% 19%
4.3% 14%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 4, 2026
≤3.8%
$90 KL.
2%
3.9%
$92 KL.
2%
4.0%
$429 KL.
19%
4.1%
$2,189 KL.
35%
4.2%
$808 KL.
27%
4.3%
$348 KL.
14%
4.4%
$113 KL.
6%
4.5%
$112 KL.
4%
≥4.6%
$92 KL.
2%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The closely matched Polymarket odds centered on 4.1% and 4.2% for the August unemployment rate reflect the mixed July employment report, where the rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% due to a 264,000 drop in the labor force even as nonfarm payrolls declined 23,000. This follows a cooling trend with participation at 61.4%, its lowest since early 2021, and a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium amid modest job gains concentrated in select sectors. Traders' skin-in-the-game consensus incorporates forward-looking factors such as potential monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, while acknowledging downside risks from softening demand. The August data release on September 4 serves as the primary near-term catalyst that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Thị trường mở: Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ET
Khối lượng
$4,273Ngày kết thúc
Sep 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The closely matched Polymarket odds centered on 4.1% and 4.2% for the August unemployment rate reflect the mixed July employment report, where the rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% due to a 264,000 drop in the labor force even as nonfarm payrolls declined 23,000. This follows a cooling trend with participation at 61.4%, its lowest since early 2021, and a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium amid modest job gains concentrated in select sectors. Traders' skin-in-the-game consensus incorporates forward-looking factors such as potential monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, while acknowledging downside risks from softening demand. The August data release on September 4 serves as the primary near-term catalyst that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for August 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for September 4, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Khối lượng
$4,273Ngày kết thúc
Sep 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 7, 2026, 1:07 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htmResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched Polymarket odds centered on 4.1% and 4.2% for the August unemployment rate reflect the mixed July employment report, where the rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% due to a 264,000 drop in the labor force even as nonfarm payrolls declined 23,000. This follows a cooling trend with participation at 61.4%, its lowest since early 2021, and a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium amid modest job gains concentrated in select sectors. Traders' skin-in-the-game consensus incorporates forward-looking factors such as potential monetary easing and fiscal stimulus, while acknowledging downside risks from softening demand. The August data release on September 4 serves as the primary near-term catalyst that could shift implied probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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