Recent leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash in Google's iOS app, AI Studio, and LM Arena leaderboards—surfacing as early as May 5 with pricing at $0.25 per million tokens—have propelled trader consensus toward a May 19 release at 39.5% implied probability, aligning with Google I/O's keynote on that date. These sightings follow Gemini 3's November 2025 debut and iterative 3.1 updates, signaling Google's accelerated large language model cadence amid competition from OpenAI's GPT series and Anthropic's Claude. The 22.5% on "No release by May 31" reflects caution over unconfirmed leaks and typical post-I/O rollout delays, while earlier dates like May 13 carry lower odds absent official previews. Watch I/O May 19-20 for capability demos or benchmarks that could shift sentiment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMay 19 40%
No release by May 31 26%
May 13 14%
May 14 12%
MỚI
$32,500 KL.
MỚI
$32,500 KL.
May 31, 2026
On or prior to May 6
<1%
May 7
4%
May 8
1%
May 9
1%
May 10
1%
May 11
3%
May 12
8%
May 13
14%
May 14
12%
May 15
3%
May 16
1%
May 17
1%
May 18
4%
May 19
40%
May 20
7%
May 21
7%
May 22
2%
May 23
<1%
May 24
1%
May 25
3%
May 26
1%
May 27
4%
May 28
1%
May 29
3%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
26%
May 19 40%
No release by May 31 26%
May 13 14%
May 14 12%
MỚI
$32,500 KL.
MỚI
$32,500 KL.
May 31, 2026
On or prior to May 6
$1,423 KL.
<1%
May 7
$524 KL.
4%
May 8
$459 KL.
1%
May 9
$2,732 KL.
1%
May 10
$2,812 KL.
1%
May 11
$525 KL.
3%
May 12
$518 KL.
8%
May 13
$543 KL.
14%
May 14
$485 KL.
12%
May 15
$485 KL.
3%
May 16
$2,561 KL.
1%
May 17
$2,572 KL.
1%
May 18
$505 KL.
4%
May 19
$723 KL.
40%
May 20
$611 KL.
7%
May 21
$545 KL.
7%
May 22
$525 KL.
2%
May 23
$2,541 KL.
<1%
May 24
$2,586 KL.
1%
May 25
$555 KL.
3%
May 26
$560 KL.
1%
May 27
$545 KL.
4%
May 28
$545 KL.
1%
May 29
$571 KL.
3%
May 30
$2,861 KL.
<1%
May 31
$2,581 KL.
<1%
No release by May 31
$612 KL.
26%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash in Google's iOS app, AI Studio, and LM Arena leaderboards—surfacing as early as May 5 with pricing at $0.25 per million tokens—have propelled trader consensus toward a May 19 release at 39.5% implied probability, aligning with Google I/O's keynote on that date. These sightings follow Gemini 3's November 2025 debut and iterative 3.1 updates, signaling Google's accelerated large language model cadence amid competition from OpenAI's GPT series and Anthropic's Claude. The 22.5% on "No release by May 31" reflects caution over unconfirmed leaks and typical post-I/O rollout delays, while earlier dates like May 13 carry lower odds absent official previews. Watch I/O May 19-20 for capability demos or benchmarks that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$32,500Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash in Google's iOS app, AI Studio, and LM Arena leaderboards—surfacing as early as May 5 with pricing at $0.25 per million tokens—have propelled trader consensus toward a May 19 release at 39.5% implied probability, aligning with Google I/O's keynote on that date. These sightings follow Gemini 3's November 2025 debut and iterative 3.1 updates, signaling Google's accelerated large language model cadence amid competition from OpenAI's GPT series and Anthropic's Claude. The 22.5% on "No release by May 31" reflects caution over unconfirmed leaks and typical post-I/O rollout delays, while earlier dates like May 13 carry lower odds absent official previews. Watch I/O May 19-20 for capability demos or benchmarks that could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$32,500Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent leaks of Gemini 3.2 Flash in Google's iOS app, AI Studio, and LM Arena leaderboards—surfacing as early as May 5 with pricing at $0.25 per million tokens—have propelled trader consensus toward a May 19 release at 39.5% implied probability, aligning with Google I/O's keynote on that date. These sightings follow Gemini 3's November 2025 debut and iterative 3.1 updates, signaling Google's accelerated large language model cadence amid competition from OpenAI's GPT series and Anthropic's Claude. The 22.5% on "No release by May 31" reflects caution over unconfirmed leaks and typical post-I/O rollout delays, while earlier dates like May 13 carry lower odds absent official previews. Watch I/O May 19-20 for capability demos or benchmarks that could shift sentiment.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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