Polymarket traders assign a leading 35.4% implied probability to "No Prison Time" for Harvey Weinstein, reflecting uncertainty from his age (73), over six years served since 2020, frail health, and appeals chipping away at #MeToo-era convictions—despite a confirmed 16-year California rape sentence that remains consecutive pending review. Close behind, 10-20 years (24.9%) and 20-30 years (23.8%) capture scenarios blending the California term with potential New York outcomes, including a 2025 criminal sexual act conviction (up to 25 years) still awaiting sentencing. Jury selection in his third New York rape trial began April 14, heightening volatility, while his March Rikers Island interview detailed harsh conditions, amplifying compassionate release narratives ahead of verdicts and rulings.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtThời gian ngồi tù của Harvey Weinstein?
Thời gian ngồi tù của Harvey Weinstein?
Không bị tù 35.4%
10-20 years 24.9%
20-30 years 23.8%
5-10 years 5.9%
$834,196 KL.
$834,196 KL.
Dec 31, 2025
Không bị tù
35%
<5 years
3%
5-10 years
6%
10-20 years
25%
20-30 years
24%
30+ years
4%
Không bị tù 35.4%
10-20 years 24.9%
20-30 years 23.8%
5-10 years 5.9%
$834,196 KL.
$834,196 KL.
Dec 31, 2025
Không bị tù
$317,992 KL.
35%
<5 years
$93,119 KL.
3%
5-10 years
$52,054 KL.
6%
10-20 years
$138,235 KL.
25%
20-30 years
$177,797 KL.
24%
30+ years
$55,000 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders assign a leading 35.4% implied probability to "No Prison Time" for Harvey Weinstein, reflecting uncertainty from his age (73), over six years served since 2020, frail health, and appeals chipping away at #MeToo-era convictions—despite a confirmed 16-year California rape sentence that remains consecutive pending review. Close behind, 10-20 years (24.9%) and 20-30 years (23.8%) capture scenarios blending the California term with potential New York outcomes, including a 2025 criminal sexual act conviction (up to 25 years) still awaiting sentencing. Jury selection in his third New York rape trial began April 14, heightening volatility, while his March Rikers Island interview detailed harsh conditions, amplifying compassionate release narratives ahead of verdicts and rulings.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$834,196Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2025Thị trường mở
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Polymarket traders assign a leading 35.4% implied probability to "No Prison Time" for Harvey Weinstein, reflecting uncertainty from his age (73), over six years served since 2020, frail health, and appeals chipping away at #MeToo-era convictions—despite a confirmed 16-year California rape sentence that remains consecutive pending review. Close behind, 10-20 years (24.9%) and 20-30 years (23.8%) capture scenarios blending the California term with potential New York outcomes, including a 2025 criminal sexual act conviction (up to 25 years) still awaiting sentencing. Jury selection in his third New York rape trial began April 14, heightening volatility, while his March Rikers Island interview detailed harsh conditions, amplifying compassionate release narratives ahead of verdicts and rulings.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$834,196Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2025Thị trường mở
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign a leading 35.4% implied probability to "No Prison Time" for Harvey Weinstein, reflecting uncertainty from his age (73), over six years served since 2020, frail health, and appeals chipping away at #MeToo-era convictions—despite a confirmed 16-year California rape sentence that remains consecutive pending review. Close behind, 10-20 years (24.9%) and 20-30 years (23.8%) capture scenarios blending the California term with potential New York outcomes, including a 2025 criminal sexual act conviction (up to 25 years) still awaiting sentencing. Jury selection in his third New York rape trial began April 14, heightening volatility, while his March Rikers Island interview detailed harsh conditions, amplifying compassionate release narratives ahead of verdicts and rulings.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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