Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors 31°C as Singapore's highest temperature on May 6, 2026, with 100% implied probability, reflecting National Environment Agency (NEA) observational data from automated climate stations across the island. Despite NEA's April 30 fortnightly outlook forecasting daily maximums of 33–35°C amid inter-monsoon conditions, frequent afternoon thundery showers—totaling above-average rainfall—suppressed peak heating, capping the observed high at 31°C, consistent with May climatology where averages hover around 31°C but showers often limit extremes. Historical patterns show such convective activity routinely moderates tropical heat; official records, updated by the 10th, could confirm this, though revisions are rare absent measurement errors. A challenge would require overlooked station data exceeding 31°C before midnight, unlikely given evening cooling trends.