SpaceX's Falcon 9 cadence, fueled by rapid Starlink satellite deployments across multiple orbital planes, anchors trader expectations around 13 launches for August 2026. With several missions already completed early in the month and a manifest listing additional Starlink flights plus payloads like Globalstar and a Dragon cargo resupply, the wide distribution across 12–15 outcomes reflects uncertainty over weather scrubs, booster turnaround times, and any last-minute shifts to Falcon Heavy or Starship test flights. High launch frequency supports the 32.5% probability on exactly 13, while risks of delays from regulatory holds or pad conflicts keep lower and higher counts competitive.