Recent polls show the August 29 Icelandic referendum on resuming EU accession talks locked in a narrow contest, with Maskína’s final survey giving Yes a 2.6-point edge and Gallup recording virtual ties. This razor-thin split sustains elevated probabilities on sub-3% or 3–6% margins for either side, as voters weigh fisheries sovereignty—accounting for nearly 40% of exports—against potential gains in currency stability and living costs amid external tariff pressures. The two-step process, requiring a later membership vote if talks succeed, further compresses expected separation while keeping “Other” outcomes prominent due to possible late swings or turnout effects in the small electorate. No single development has yet produced decisive movement in either direction.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo 9–12% 46%
Yes 3–6% 36%
Yes 15%+ 23%
No 12–15% 21%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
23%
Yes 12–15%
9%
Yes 9–12%
1%
Yes 6–9%
24%
Yes 3–6%
26%
Yes <3%
25%
No <3%
42%
No 3–6%
24%
No 6–9%
24%
No 9–12%
46%
No 12–15%
21%
No 15%+
19%
No 9–12% 46%
Yes 3–6% 36%
Yes 15%+ 23%
No 12–15% 21%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 29, 2026
Yes 15%+
$94 KL.
23%
Yes 12–15%
$87 KL.
9%
Yes 9–12%
$21 KL.
1%
Yes 6–9%
$11 KL.
24%
Yes 3–6%
$44 KL.
26%
Yes <3%
$24 KL.
25%
No <3%
$43 KL.
42%
No 3–6%
$24 KL.
24%
No 6–9%
$24 KL.
24%
No 9–12%
$22 KL.
46%
No 12–15%
$86 KL.
21%
No 15%+
$16 KL.
19%
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polls show the August 29 Icelandic referendum on resuming EU accession talks locked in a narrow contest, with Maskína’s final survey giving Yes a 2.6-point edge and Gallup recording virtual ties. This razor-thin split sustains elevated probabilities on sub-3% or 3–6% margins for either side, as voters weigh fisheries sovereignty—accounting for nearly 40% of exports—against potential gains in currency stability and living costs amid external tariff pressures. The two-step process, requiring a later membership vote if talks succeed, further compresses expected separation while keeping “Other” outcomes prominent due to possible late swings or turnout effects in the small electorate. No single development has yet produced decisive movement in either direction.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Thị trường mở: Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ET
Khối lượng
$497Ngày kết thúc
Aug 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polls show the August 29 Icelandic referendum on resuming EU accession talks locked in a narrow contest, with Maskína’s final survey giving Yes a 2.6-point edge and Gallup recording virtual ties. This razor-thin split sustains elevated probabilities on sub-3% or 3–6% margins for either side, as voters weigh fisheries sovereignty—accounting for nearly 40% of exports—against potential gains in currency stability and living costs amid external tariff pressures. The two-step process, requiring a later membership vote if talks succeed, further compresses expected separation while keeping “Other” outcomes prominent due to possible late swings or turnout effects in the small electorate. No single development has yet produced decisive movement in either direction.
The Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum is scheduled to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between "Yes" and "No" in the referendum.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by "Yes" and "No". Percentages will be determined by dividing the number of valid votes each option receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the referendum.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If "Yes" and "No" receive the exact same number of valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest "No" margin bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of the vote once the count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the referendum is officially rescheduled to a date prior to December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the same rule applies to the new ballot and its corresponding deadlines. If the results of the referendum are not known definitively, or no qualifying referendum vote occurs, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Khối lượng
$497Ngày kết thúc
Aug 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 27, 2026, 12:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show the August 29 Icelandic referendum on resuming EU accession talks locked in a narrow contest, with Maskína’s final survey giving Yes a 2.6-point edge and Gallup recording virtual ties. This razor-thin split sustains elevated probabilities on sub-3% or 3–6% margins for either side, as voters weigh fisheries sovereignty—accounting for nearly 40% of exports—against potential gains in currency stability and living costs amid external tariff pressures. The two-step process, requiring a later membership vote if talks succeed, further compresses expected separation while keeping “Other” outcomes prominent due to possible late swings or turnout effects in the small electorate. No single development has yet produced decisive movement in either direction.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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