Recent polling shows the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains closely contested at roughly 51-49, spurring intensive mobilization by both camps that typically elevates participation in Icelandic votes. Historical patterns from recent Althingi and presidential elections near 80% turnout, combined with early voting underway since late July and public debate over fisheries, currency stability, and sovereignty, anchor trader expectations in the 70-85% range. The narrow margin and single-question format keep adjacent turnout bins tightly bunched, as modest shifts in undecided voters or regional differences could alter overall engagement without changing the outcome. Late-campaign intensity, weather on referendum day, or final turnout projections could widen separation among the leading intervals.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật60–65% 27%
55–60% 26%
65–70% 26%
70–75% 26%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 29, 2026
<45%
24%
45–50%
25%
50–55%
24%
55–60%
26%
60–65%
27%
65–70%
26%
70–75%
26%
75–80%
26%
80–85%
24%
85%+
11%
60–65% 27%
55–60% 26%
65–70% 26%
70–75% 26%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 29, 2026
<45%
$0 KL.
24%
45–50%
$0 KL.
25%
50–55%
$0 KL.
24%
55–60%
$0 KL.
26%
60–65%
$0 KL.
27%
65–70%
$0 KL.
26%
70–75%
$0 KL.
26%
75–80%
$0 KL.
26%
80–85%
$0 KL.
24%
85%+
$0 KL.
11%
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polling shows the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains closely contested at roughly 51-49, spurring intensive mobilization by both camps that typically elevates participation in Icelandic votes. Historical patterns from recent Althingi and presidential elections near 80% turnout, combined with early voting underway since late July and public debate over fisheries, currency stability, and sovereignty, anchor trader expectations in the 70-85% range. The narrow margin and single-question format keep adjacent turnout bins tightly bunched, as modest shifts in undecided voters or regional differences could alter overall engagement without changing the outcome. Late-campaign intensity, weather on referendum day, or final turnout projections could widen separation among the leading intervals.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Thị trường mở: Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Aug 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.Recent polling shows the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains closely contested at roughly 51-49, spurring intensive mobilization by both camps that typically elevates participation in Icelandic votes. Historical patterns from recent Althingi and presidential elections near 80% turnout, combined with early voting underway since late July and public debate over fisheries, currency stability, and sovereignty, anchor trader expectations in the 70-85% range. The narrow margin and single-question format keep adjacent turnout bins tightly bunched, as modest shifts in undecided voters or regional differences could alter overall engagement without changing the outcome. Late-campaign intensity, weather on referendum day, or final turnout projections could widen separation among the leading intervals.
A referendum on Icelandic European Union membership negotiations is expected to be held on August 29, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the official voter turnout rate for this referendum, defined as the total number of votes cast, including blank and null votes reported, divided by the total number of eligible voters.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the referendum aren't known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the vote as published by the Government of Iceland, including the National Electoral Commission of Iceland (https://island.is/en/o/landskjorstjorn) and Statistics Iceland (https://www.statice.is/statistics/population/elections/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Aug 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 27, 2026, 9:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows the August 29 referendum on resuming EU accession negotiations remains closely contested at roughly 51-49, spurring intensive mobilization by both camps that typically elevates participation in Icelandic votes. Historical patterns from recent Althingi and presidential elections near 80% turnout, combined with early voting underway since late July and public debate over fisheries, currency stability, and sovereignty, anchor trader expectations in the 70-85% range. The narrow margin and single-question format keep adjacent turnout bins tightly bunched, as modest shifts in undecided voters or regional differences could alter overall engagement without changing the outcome. Late-campaign intensity, weather on referendum day, or final turnout projections could widen separation among the leading intervals.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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