President Trump's threats to invoke the Insurrection Act amid protests over aggressive ICE enforcement actions, particularly following the January 2026 fatal shooting of a Minneapolis woman by federal agents, have not materialized into formal deployment of active-duty troops or National Guard federalization, keeping trader-implied probabilities low for near-term resolutions like April 30 at around 1%. Ongoing mass deportation efforts advised by Stephen Miller raise escalation risks if civil unrest intensifies, but congressional bills such as S.2070 seek to impose limits on the 1807 law's broad presidential authority, an exception to Posse Comitatus restrictions. No invocation has occurred despite rhetoric, with sentiment reflecting legal hurdles, political backlash, and historical rarity; watch for DHS operations or midterm-related tensions through December 2026.