Traders assign a 97% implied probability against President Trump’s removal via the 25th Amendment before 2027 because the constitutional process imposes steep procedural hurdles: the vice president and a majority of cabinet secretaries must initiate action, followed by a two-thirds vote in both chambers of Congress. Republican majorities in the House and Senate, combined with the absence of any verified reports of incapacity or cabinet-level dissent since inauguration, reinforce the current trader consensus. Historical precedent shows the provision has never been used to remove an elected president. Late-breaking developments such as a documented medical crisis, coordinated cabinet resignations, or an unforeseen congressional shift could still alter probabilities within the resolution window.