Adama Barrow, the incumbent National People’s Party leader seeking a third term in the December 5, 2026, first-past-the-post contest, holds the strongest position among declared candidates. Recent opinion surveys show him ahead on both vote intention and perceived electability, though no candidate commands a majority and a large undecided share persists. Opposition figures including Ousainou Darboe of the United Democratic Party and Talib Ahmed Bensouda trail, with limited evidence of unified coalition arrangements to date. Ongoing electricity shortages have sparked protests in Banjul and the West Coast Region, prompting Barrow to declare a national emergency and announce new generation capacity by late October. Discussions of possible alliances, such as with Essa Faal, remain fluid. Market pricing aligns with these structural and polling dynamics three months before polling day.