José Maria Neves, the incumbent PAICV president since 2021, holds a dominant position in the November 15, 2026, presidential election market. His party’s May 2026 parliamentary victory, which delivered a National Assembly majority and replaced the MpD government, has reinforced trader expectations of his re-election bid. In Cape Verde’s semi-presidential system, Neves benefits from name recognition, foreign-policy visibility, and the absence of term-limit barriers for a second consecutive term. Declared MpD challengers such as Joana Rosa and Janine Lélis trail significantly, reflecting limited momentum for the opposition following its legislative defeat. No major late-breaking developments have altered the consensus in recent weeks, though the campaign period through October could still introduce volatility ahead of the first-round vote.