Recent polls from Datafolha, Quaest, and CNT/MDA released over the past week show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied or virtually even in simulated second-round runoffs for Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election, with margins under 2 points and Lula's approval dipping to 44% amid economic headwinds and government disapproval at 51%. This trader consensus—Flávio Bolsonaro at 41% implied probability edging Lula's 40%—reflects the challenger's momentum consolidating the right-wing base ineligible for ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, while the incumbent struggles to expand beyond core support. The race remains tight due to fragmented fields and undecided voters; separation could come from upcoming party conventions, economic data releases, or scandals before potential runoff.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFlávio Bolsonaro 40.8%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 40%
Renan Santos 6.3%
Fernando Haddad 4.5%
$53,555,791 KL.
$53,555,791 KL.
Flávio Bolsonaro
41%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
40%
Renan Santos
6%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Romeu Zema
2%
Camilo Santana
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Flávio Bolsonaro 40.8%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 40%
Renan Santos 6.3%
Fernando Haddad 4.5%
$53,555,791 KL.
$53,555,791 KL.
Flávio Bolsonaro
41%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
40%
Renan Santos
6%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Romeu Zema
2%
Camilo Santana
2%
Ronaldo Caiado
2%
Michelle Bolsonaro
1%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Thị trường mở: Sep 18, 2025, 4:02 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls from Datafolha, Quaest, and CNT/MDA released over the past week show President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro statistically tied or virtually even in simulated second-round runoffs for Brazil's October 4 first-round presidential election, with margins under 2 points and Lula's approval dipping to 44% amid economic headwinds and government disapproval at 51%. This trader consensus—Flávio Bolsonaro at 41% implied probability edging Lula's 40%—reflects the challenger's momentum consolidating the right-wing base ineligible for ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, while the incumbent struggles to expand beyond core support. The race remains tight due to fragmented fields and undecided voters; separation could come from upcoming party conventions, economic data releases, or scandals before potential runoff.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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