**Fernando Dias da Costa leads the fragmented field for Guinea-Bissau’s December 6, 2026 presidential election at 22.9% implied probability, ahead of former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló at 9.5%.** The wide spread reflects the transitional military government installed after the November 2025 coup, which annulled that year’s vote before official results and suspended the process amid competing victory claims by Dias (backed by the PAIGC-led PAI–Terra Ranka coalition and Balanta ethnic networks) and Embaló. Dias benefits from opposition consolidation after the PAIGC’s earlier exclusion and his positioning as the main challenger; Embaló faces headwinds from the coup’s fallout and regime associations. A September 2026 constitutional referendum expanding presidential powers and imposing a five-year residency rule further shapes the landscape, though the crowded 12-candidate slate and unresolved institutional dynamics keep support diffuse pending clearer alliances or campaign momentum.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGuinea-Bissau Presidential Election
Guinea-Bissau Presidential Election
Fernando Dias da Costa 33.7%
José Mário Vaz 2.8%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló 1.7%
João Bernardo Vieira 1.7%
$339,755 KL.
$339,755 KL.
Fernando Dias da Costa
22%
José Mário Vaz
3%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló
9%
João Bernardo Vieira
2%
Baciro Djá
2%
Honório Augusto Lopes
2%
João de Deus Mendes
2%
Gabriel Fernando Indi
2%
Mamadu Iaia Djaló
2%
Mário da Silva Júnior
2%
Siga Batista
2%
Herculano Armando Bequinsa
1%
Fernando Dias da Costa 33.7%
José Mário Vaz 2.8%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló 1.7%
João Bernardo Vieira 1.7%
$339,755 KL.
$339,755 KL.
Fernando Dias da Costa
22%
José Mário Vaz
3%
Umaro Sissoco Embaló
9%
João Bernardo Vieira
2%
Baciro Djá
2%
Honório Augusto Lopes
2%
João de Deus Mendes
2%
Gabriel Fernando Indi
2%
Mamadu Iaia Djaló
2%
Mário da Silva Júnior
2%
Siga Batista
2%
Herculano Armando Bequinsa
1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Thị trường mở: Nov 6, 2025, 6:18 PM ET
Người giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election.
This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the government of Guinea-Bissau, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (http://www.cne.gw/).
Người giải quyết
0x2F5e3684c...**Fernando Dias da Costa leads the fragmented field for Guinea-Bissau’s December 6, 2026 presidential election at 22.9% implied probability, ahead of former president Umaro Sissoco Embaló at 9.5%.** The wide spread reflects the transitional military government installed after the November 2025 coup, which annulled that year’s vote before official results and suspended the process amid competing victory claims by Dias (backed by the PAIGC-led PAI–Terra Ranka coalition and Balanta ethnic networks) and Embaló. Dias benefits from opposition consolidation after the PAIGC’s earlier exclusion and his positioning as the main challenger; Embaló faces headwinds from the coup’s fallout and regime associations. A September 2026 constitutional referendum expanding presidential powers and imposing a five-year residency rule further shapes the landscape, though the crowded 12-candidate slate and unresolved institutional dynamics keep support diffuse pending clearer alliances or campaign momentum.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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