Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a Trump resignation by December 31, 2026, stems from the structural incentives of the executive branch, where incumbents typically complete terms absent extraordinary pressure. Historical precedent shows only one modern resignation, and no public statements, cabinet signals, or legislative actions point to an early exit during the current term. Political calculations around legacy, policy priorities, and party dynamics further reduce the odds. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a sudden health event requiring medical intervention, major legal developments triggering impeachment proceedings, or unforeseen personal circumstances prompting a voluntary departure before the end of the year.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó
4% khả năng
$538,890 KL.
$538,890 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
4% khả năng
$538,890 KL.
$538,890 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a Trump resignation by December 31, 2026, stems from the structural incentives of the executive branch, where incumbents typically complete terms absent extraordinary pressure. Historical precedent shows only one modern resignation, and no public statements, cabinet signals, or legislative actions point to an early exit during the current term. Political calculations around legacy, policy priorities, and party dynamics further reduce the odds. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a sudden health event requiring medical intervention, major legal developments triggering impeachment proceedings, or unforeseen personal circumstances prompting a voluntary departure before the end of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$538,890Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a Trump resignation by December 31, 2026, stems from the structural incentives of the executive branch, where incumbents typically complete terms absent extraordinary pressure. Historical precedent shows only one modern resignation, and no public statements, cabinet signals, or legislative actions point to an early exit during the current term. Political calculations around legacy, policy priorities, and party dynamics further reduce the odds. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a sudden health event requiring medical intervention, major legal developments triggering impeachment proceedings, or unforeseen personal circumstances prompting a voluntary departure before the end of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$538,890Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus on the low likelihood of a Trump resignation by December 31, 2026, stems from the structural incentives of the executive branch, where incumbents typically complete terms absent extraordinary pressure. Historical precedent shows only one modern resignation, and no public statements, cabinet signals, or legislative actions point to an early exit during the current term. Political calculations around legacy, policy priorities, and party dynamics further reduce the odds. Realistic scenarios that could still shift probabilities include a sudden health event requiring medical intervention, major legal developments triggering impeachment proceedings, or unforeseen personal circumstances prompting a voluntary departure before the end of the year.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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