Recent trilateral diplomacy involving the United States, Russia, and Ukraine—including rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026—produced limited progress on core issues such as territorial control in Donbas and security guarantees. Ukrainian President Zelensky proposed an immediate frontline ceasefire and direct bilateral talks in a June 2026 open letter to Russian President Putin, but Moscow maintained demands for recognition of annexed regions and rejected European mediation. Ongoing Russian airstrikes, Ukrainian drone operations, and ground offensives have continued without de-escalation. US pressure for a settlement has not overcome maximalist positions from both sides or produced verifiable monitoring mechanisms. Traders assign low probability to an official, mutually agreed ceasefire by year-end because these entrenched disputes and active hostilities show no sign of rapid resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
$5,782,349 KL.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
15%
August 31
6%
December 31
34%
$5,782,349 KL.
October 31
$825,845 KL.
15%
August 31
$334,801 KL.
6%
December 31
$2,084,372 KL.
34%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent trilateral diplomacy involving the United States, Russia, and Ukraine—including rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026—produced limited progress on core issues such as territorial control in Donbas and security guarantees. Ukrainian President Zelensky proposed an immediate frontline ceasefire and direct bilateral talks in a June 2026 open letter to Russian President Putin, but Moscow maintained demands for recognition of annexed regions and rejected European mediation. Ongoing Russian airstrikes, Ukrainian drone operations, and ground offensives have continued without de-escalation. US pressure for a settlement has not overcome maximalist positions from both sides or produced verifiable monitoring mechanisms. Traders assign low probability to an official, mutually agreed ceasefire by year-end because these entrenched disputes and active hostilities show no sign of rapid resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET
Khối lượng
$5,782,349Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent trilateral diplomacy involving the United States, Russia, and Ukraine—including rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026—produced limited progress on core issues such as territorial control in Donbas and security guarantees. Ukrainian President Zelensky proposed an immediate frontline ceasefire and direct bilateral talks in a June 2026 open letter to Russian President Putin, but Moscow maintained demands for recognition of annexed regions and rejected European mediation. Ongoing Russian airstrikes, Ukrainian drone operations, and ground offensives have continued without de-escalation. US pressure for a settlement has not overcome maximalist positions from both sides or produced verifiable monitoring mechanisms. Traders assign low probability to an official, mutually agreed ceasefire by year-end because these entrenched disputes and active hostilities show no sign of rapid resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$5,782,349Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent trilateral diplomacy involving the United States, Russia, and Ukraine—including rounds in Abu Dhabi and Geneva earlier in 2026—produced limited progress on core issues such as territorial control in Donbas and security guarantees. Ukrainian President Zelensky proposed an immediate frontline ceasefire and direct bilateral talks in a June 2026 open letter to Russian President Putin, but Moscow maintained demands for recognition of annexed regions and rejected European mediation. Ongoing Russian airstrikes, Ukrainian drone operations, and ground offensives have continued without de-escalation. US pressure for a settlement has not overcome maximalist positions from both sides or produced verifiable monitoring mechanisms. Traders assign low probability to an official, mutually agreed ceasefire by year-end because these entrenched disputes and active hostilities show no sign of rapid resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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