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icon for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Chính Trị·Russia

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

icon for Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Chính Trị·Russia

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

$7,688,062 KL.

Oct 31, 2026
Polymarket

$7,688,062 KL.

Polymarket

October 31

$1,666,583 KL.

8%

November 30

$4,694 KL.

13%

December 31

$2,633,167 KL.

23%

January 31, 2027

$21,954 KL.

33%

February 28, 2027

$3,717 KL.

37%

March 31, 2027

$70,942 KL.

40%

April 30, 2027

$827 KL.

44%

May 31, 2027

$1,787 KL.

52%

June 30, 2027

$150,446 KL.

56%

July 31, 2027

$1,202 KL.

57%

August 31, 2027

$242 KL.

61%

September 30, 2027

$851 KL.

62%

October 31, 2027

$3,138 KL.

64%

November 30, 2027

$831 KL.

66%

December 31, 2027

$4,172 KL.

70%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US diplomatic efforts have shaped trader assessments of a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire timeline. In early September 2026, envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held talks with Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv, producing signals that trilateral negotiations could resume in October, possibly focusing first on limiting strikes against energy infrastructure and ensuring Black Sea navigation rather than a comprehensive territorial settlement. Both sides have expressed openness to renewed US-mediated discussions while maintaining core positions: Russia continues to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas, and Ukraine rejects unilateral concessions without security guarantees. Intensifying mutual aerial strikes on critical infrastructure persist alongside these diplomatic moves, with expectations of further winter escalation. Scheduled high-level contacts, including Zelenskyy’s planned meeting with US President Donald Trump at the UN General Assembly, represent near-term catalysts that could influence the pace of any de-escalation steps.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.

Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.

If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$7,688,062
Ngày kết thúc
Jul 1, 2027
Thị trường mở
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET

Người giải quyết

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent US diplomatic efforts have shaped trader assessments of a potential Russia-Ukraine ceasefire timeline. In early September 2026, envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner held talks with Vladimir Putin in Moscow and Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Kyiv, producing signals that trilateral negotiations could resume in October, possibly focusing first on limiting strikes against energy infrastructure and ensuring Black Sea navigation rather than a comprehensive territorial settlement. Both sides have expressed openness to renewed US-mediated discussions while maintaining core positions: Russia continues to demand Ukrainian withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas, and Ukraine rejects unilateral concessions without security guarantees. Intensifying mutual aerial strikes on critical infrastructure persist alongside these diplomatic moves, with expectations of further winter escalation. Scheduled high-level contacts, including Zelenskyy’s planned meeting with US President Donald Trump at the UN General Assembly, represent near-term catalysts that could influence the pace of any de-escalation steps.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.

A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.

Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.

Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.

If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date.

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of Russia and Ukraine and a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$7,688,062
Ngày kết thúc
Jul 1, 2027
Thị trường mở
May 12, 2026, 11:28 PM ET

Người giải quyết

0x65070BE91...

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"Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?" là thị trường dự đoán trên Polymarket với 18 kết quả có thể nơi các nhà giao dịch mua và bán cổ phần dựa trên điều họ tin sẽ xảy ra. Kết quả dẫn đầu hiện tại là "December 31, 2027" ở mức 70%, tiếp theo là "November 30, 2027" ở mức 66%. Giá phản ánh xác suất cộng đồng theo thời gian thực. Ví dụ, cổ phần ở giá 70¢ ngụ ý thị trường tập thể cho rằng có 70% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Tỷ lệ này thay đổi liên tục khi trader phản ứng với diễn biến và thông tin mới. Cổ phần đúng kết quả có thể đổi lấy $1 mỗi cổ phần khi thị trường được giải quyết.

Tính đến hôm nay, "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?" đã tạo $7.7 million tổng khối lượng giao dịch kể từ khi thị trường mở vào May 12, 2026. Mức hoạt động giao dịch này phản ánh sự tham gia mạnh mẽ từ cộng đồng Polymarket và giúp đảm bảo tỷ lệ hiện tại được thông tin bởi nhóm người tham gia thị trường sâu rộng. Bạn có thể theo dõi biến động giá trực tiếp và giao dịch trên bất kỳ kết quả nào ngay trên trang này.

Để giao dịch trên "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?," duyệt 18 kết quả có sẵn trên trang này. Mỗi kết quả hiển thị giá hiện tại đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Để mở vị thế, chọn kết quả bạn tin là có khả năng nhất, chọn "Có" để giao dịch ủng hộ hoặc "Không" để giao dịch chống, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu kết quả bạn chọn đúng khi thị trường giải quyết, cổ phần "Có" của bạn trả $1 mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, chúng trả $0. Bạn cũng có thể bán cổ phần bất cứ lúc nào trước khi giải quyết nếu muốn chốt lời hoặc cắt lỗ.

Ứng viên dẫn đầu hiện tại cho "Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?" là "December 31, 2027" ở mức 70%, nghĩa là thị trường cho 70% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Kết quả gần nhất tiếp theo là "November 30, 2027" ở mức 66%. Tỷ lệ cập nhật theo thời gian thực khi trader mua và bán cổ phần, phản ánh cái nhìn tập thể mới nhất về điều có khả năng xảy ra nhất. Kiểm tra thường xuyên hoặc đánh dấu trang này để theo dõi tỷ lệ thay đổi khi thông tin mới xuất hiện.

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