Vladimir Putin’s position as Russia’s president rests on firm constitutional footing after 2020 amendments reset term limits, enabling him to serve until 2036, with his current mandate extending through 2030. No presidential election or formal succession process is scheduled before late 2026, and recent public statements indicate he views extended tenure as an open question rather than an imminent concern. Elite consolidation, high reported approval ratings, and control over security structures have limited observable challenges despite the Ukraine conflict’s strains and domestic economic pressures. State Duma elections set for September 2026 are expected to reinforce the existing power balance rather than alter leadership. Traders’ strong “No” consensus aligns with the absence of credible near-term exit mechanisms such as resignation, incapacity, or elite-driven transition within the resolution window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnti-war politician Boris Nadezhdin convicted and detained
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Boris Nadezhdin, an opposition figure who attempted to challenge Putin in the 2024 election, was convicted of displaying extremist symbols and detained, effectively barring him from political participation. This event underscored the Kremlin's tightening grip and contributed to market doubts about imminent leadership change.
Pro-Kremlin blogger turned Putin critic Ilya Remeslo detained
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Ilya Remeslo, a former loyalist blogger who publicly denounced Putin and called for his resignation, was detained on charges of spreading false information about the armed forces. This crackdown on dissent signaled increasing internal pressure on Putin's regime, influencing market perceptions of his political vulnerability.
Pro-Kremlin blogger Ilya Remeslo arrested for criticizing Putin and the war
On July 17, Ilya Remeslo, a former pro-Kremlin blogger turned critic, was detained on charges of spreading false information about the Russian armed forces. This arrest, alongside the conviction of opposition politician Boris Nadezhdin, signaled intensified repression of dissent but did not materially increase market odds for Putin's removal.
Wall Street Journal reports China preparing for regime change in Russia
The report that China is preparing for a possible departure of Putin and building ties with potential future Russian leadership increased market speculation about Putin's political future, contributing to modest price fluctuations.
Russian opposition politician Boris Nadezhdin briefly detained by police
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
The brief detention of opposition figure Boris Nadezhdin, known for opposing Moscow’s military actions in Ukraine, highlighted ongoing repression of dissent but did not signal any immediate threat to Putin’s presidency, maintaining low market odds for his removal.
Putin vows overwhelming response to Ukrainian attacks
Amid intensified Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, Putin promised a strong response, demonstrating his continued active leadership and control over military and political affairs, reducing near-term expectations of his removal.
Russian opposition politician Boris Nadezhdin briefly detained by police
Boris Nadezhdin, a known opponent of Moscow’s military actions, was briefly detained, highlighting ongoing political repression. However, this event did not signal any immediate threat to Putin's presidency or cause significant market movement.
Russian State Poll Confirms Continued Decline in Putin's Approval Ratings
June 30, 2027 dips to 18%1%
A subsequent poll published on July 10 showed a further decline in Putin's approval and trust ratings. The acknowledgment of growing societal discontent by a state-owned polling center was linked to intensifying gasoline shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes.
Putin’s approval and trust ratings continue to decline
June 30, 2027 dips to 17%2%
Polling data from July 10 showed Putin’s trust and approval ratings fell for a second consecutive week, indicating sustained domestic dissatisfaction amid ongoing challenges, which influenced further market price declines for Putin’s continued presidency.
Putin's approval and trust ratings fall for second consecutive week
Polling data showed a continued decline in Putin's approval and trust ratings amid ongoing military and economic challenges. This decline reflected growing public dissatisfaction but did not translate into immediate political change within the market timeframe.
Poll shows slight decline in Putin’s approval amid fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%4%
A Russian state-owned poll published on July 10 indicated a small drop in Putin’s approval and trust ratings, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction linked to worsening fuel shortages. Despite this, no political moves toward resignation or removal were reported, maintaining market skepticism about his exit.
Putin's approval ratings continue to fall amid ongoing military and political pressures
Polling data released on July 10 showed a continued decline in Putin's approval and trust ratings in early July 2026, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction amid military setbacks and political challenges. This contributed to sustained low market confidence in his long-term presidency.
Putin rejects peace talks despite intensified Ukraine strikes
On July 9, sources close to the Kremlin reported Putin's rejection of peace negotiations with Kyiv despite recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian infrastructure. This stance indicated his commitment to remain in power and continue the conflict, keeping market exit odds low.
Ukraine delivers final peace proposal warning of regime collapse if rejected
Ukraine presented a final peace proposal to the Kremlin, warning that rejection could lead to regime collapse. This heightened pressure on Putin's government amid military and economic challenges, influencing market perceptions of his political stability and exit probability.
Putin attends Kremlin meeting amid ongoing Ukraine war and NATO tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
On July 7, Putin chaired a Security Council meeting in Moscow as Russia faced military and political challenges. His continued active leadership and public presence maintained market confidence in his presidency, suppressing exit probabilities for all near-term dates.
Putin faces mounting economic and military pressures amid Ukraine conflict
Reports on July 6 highlighted Putin's precarious position due to economic decline, military stagnation, and declining public support, increasing market speculation about his political future but no immediate removal signs.
Putin faces critical decisions amid NATO meeting and ongoing Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%3%
As NATO convened, Putin weighed options in Ukraine and beyond, with Russia facing military pressure and domestic unrest due to fuel shortages. This period saw increased speculation in prediction markets about his potential exit, though no official moves occurred.
Ukraine intensifies strikes on Russian oil refineries worsening fuel crisis
On July 6, Ukrainian forces struck major Russian oil refineries, including the Slavneft-Yanos refinery, causing significant damage and exacerbating Russia's fuel shortages. This deepening crisis increased domestic pressure on Putin but did not lead to any immediate political change, reflected in continued low market odds for his exit.
Putin faces mounting internal and external pressures amid Ukraine conflict
June 30, 2027 drops to 17%6%
Putin gave an interview addressing military and economic challenges, including fuel shortages and ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian infrastructure. These pressures intensified speculation about his political stability, contributing to further declines in market prices for his continued presidency.
Putin chairs Security Council meeting amid ongoing war and NATO tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Putin chaired a Security Council meeting in Moscow on July 1, signaling continued active leadership despite pressures from the war in Ukraine and NATO concerns. This event reinforced perceptions of Putin’s firm grip on power, limiting market expectations of his imminent departure.
Putin chairs Security Council meeting amid ongoing Ukraine conflict
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
Putin chaired a Security Council meeting in Moscow as the war in Ukraine continued with slow Russian advances and Ukrainian resistance. This demonstrated Putin's continued active leadership and control, reducing market expectations of his imminent departure.
Putin holds 90-minute call with Donald Trump discussing Ukraine war
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
On July 5, Putin engaged in a lengthy call with former US President Donald Trump, who offered assistance to end the Ukraine conflict. This diplomatic engagement suggested Putin's continued active role in international affairs, reinforcing market confidence in his ongoing presidency.
Trump holds separate calls with Putin and Zelenskyy amid war tensions
U.S. President Donald Trump held separate calls with Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, offering to help find a solution to the war, which briefly influenced market sentiment about potential political changes in Russia.
Putin holds 90-minute call with Donald Trump discussing Ukraine war
On July 4, Putin spoke with former US President Donald Trump for nearly 90 minutes, with Trump offering to help end the Ukraine war. This diplomatic engagement was noted but did not signal any change in Putin's presidency, thus having limited impact on market odds for his exit.
Putin holds lengthy call with Donald Trump discussing Ukraine war
On July 5, Putin and former US President Donald Trump held a nearly 90-minute phone call focusing on the Ukraine conflict and potential diplomatic solutions. This high-profile diplomatic engagement briefly influenced market sentiment but did not indicate any imminent change in Putin’s presidency.
Putin and Zelenskyy hold separate calls with former US President Trump
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Separate calls between Putin and Zelenskyy with Donald Trump underscored ongoing diplomatic efforts and the complex geopolitical environment, maintaining market uncertainty about Putin's political stability.
Putin holds 90-minute phone call with US President Trump discussing Ukraine conflict
June 30, 2027 plunges to 18%18%
On July 5, 2026, Putin and US President Donald Trump held a lengthy phone conversation focusing on the Ukraine war and potential diplomatic resolutions. This diplomatic engagement was seen as a sign of ongoing efforts to manage the conflict without leadership change, contributing to a decline in market odds for Putin's exit by mid-2027.
Putin holds 90-minute call with Donald Trump discussing Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
On July 4, Putin spoke with former US President Donald Trump, who offered to help end the Ukraine conflict. This diplomatic engagement was seen as an attempt to manage the war situation but did not indicate any leadership change, thus having limited market impact.
Putin and Trump hold 90-minute phone call discussing Ukraine war
June 30, 2027 dips to 23%2%
Russian President Vladimir Putin and former US President Donald Trump spoke for nearly 90 minutes, with Trump offering to help end the Ukraine war. This diplomatic engagement was seen as a significant development but did not indicate any immediate change in Putin’s presidency, thus having limited impact on the market.
Putin makes staged frontline visit, claims military advances in Ukraine
June 30, 2027 plunges to 19%17%
Putin’s July 4 visit to a military installation and his public claims of progress in Ukraine were aimed at bolstering his image as a strong leader despite battlefield setbacks. This helped maintain market confidence in his presidency continuing through 2026.
Putin and Trump hold 90-minute call with Trump offering to help end Ukraine war
The call between Putin and former US President Trump, where Trump offered assistance to end the Ukraine war, was seen as a diplomatic engagement but did not signal any immediate change in Putin's presidency, thus having limited impact on market prices.
Putin exaggerates Russian military gains in staged meeting to bolster image
On July 3 and 4, Putin and Russian military commanders made exaggerated claims of territorial gains in Ukraine, attempting to create a narrative of success despite battlefield realities. This effort aimed to maintain domestic support but highlighted the disconnect between official statements and facts, influencing market perceptions of Putin's political strength.
Forbes reports on $400,000 bet predicting Putin's ouster by end of 2026
Media coverage of the large prediction market bet brought attention to the possibility of Putin's removal, potentially influencing public and market perceptions. However, no official developments occurred to confirm this outcome.
Putin shrugs off fuel shortages as he ramps up attacks on Ukraine
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Despite domestic fuel shortages and economic difficulties, Putin dismissed the crisis and intensified military actions in Ukraine, signaling no intention to step down or change leadership. This stance contributed to market confidence in his continued presidency.
Putin’s approval rating falls sharply amid ongoing Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%3%
On July 3, 2026, polls showed a notable decline in Putin’s approval and trust ratings, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction amid the protracted Ukraine war. This contributed to a slight increase in market speculation about his potential exit by the end of 2026, causing minor price fluctuations.
Anonymous Polymarket trader places nearly $500,000 bet on Putin's exit by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
A large wager on the prediction market indicated significant speculative interest in Putin's removal by December 31, 2026, reflecting market participants' perception of increased risk despite no official signals. This bet influenced market prices, especially for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin holds military meeting amid worsening fuel shortages and war challenges
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
On July 3, Putin staged a meeting with military commanders amid reports of fuel shortages and stalled advances in Ukraine. This public display of control and ongoing leadership helped reassure markets about his grip on power, contributing to a decline in removal probabilities for later dates.
Retired General Leonid Ivashov renews public call for Putin's resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%3%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, publicly criticized Putin's Ukraine war policy and called for his resignation, marking a rare and significant dissent from a high-ranking military figure. This event increased market speculation about Putin's political vulnerability, causing a temporary rise in the probability of his exit by December 31, 2026.
State Poll Shows Steepest Decline in Putin's Trust and Approval Ratings Since 2022
June 30, 2027 plunges to 18%18%
A poll published by the state-owned VTsIOM showed Putin's approval rating falling by 3.5 percent and trust falling by 3.4 percent. This marked the steepest decline in his trust rating in over four years, reflecting growing societal discontent amid domestic fuel shortages.
Anonymous trader bets nearly $500K Putin will exit presidency by end of 2026
A large bet by an anonymous Polymarket trader on Putin leaving office by December 31, 2026, drew media attention and reflected significant speculative interest in a potential leadership change. Despite the bet, market prices remained low, indicating skepticism about the likelihood of Putin's early exit within the year.
Putin approval rating drops sharply after Ukrainian drone campaign
July 31, 2026 drops to 0%9%
Putin's approval rating fell by 3.5 percent to 66.9 percent in late June 2026 after weeks of steady decline, marking the steepest decline since at least February 2022, which significantly impacted market confidence in his leadership.
Putin and Trump hold 90-minute call discussing Ukraine war
On July 3, Putin spoke with former US President Donald Trump for nearly 90 minutes, with Trump offering to help end the Ukraine war, reflecting ongoing diplomatic engagement but no indication of Putin's removal, affecting market sentiment.
Putin's approval rating drops sharply amid war fatigue and economic strain
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%4%
State pollster VTsIOM reported Putin's approval rating fell by 3.5 percentage points to 66.9%, the steepest weekly decline since the war began, reflecting growing public dissatisfaction amid economic hardship and ongoing conflict. This decline contributed to market uncertainty about Putin's tenure.
Putin’s approval rating sharply falls amid fuel crisis and war setbacks
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Russian polling data released on July 3 showed a significant drop in Putin’s approval and trust ratings, the steepest since early 2022, amid worsening fuel shortages and military setbacks. This decline reflected growing public dissatisfaction but did not translate into immediate political change.
Putin’s approval rating falls sharply amid military setbacks
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
A poll published on July 3 showed Putin’s approval rating dropped by 3.5% to 66.9% and trust fell by 3.4% to 73.3% between June 22 and 28, reflecting increased public discontent and contributing to a decline in market odds for Putin remaining president.
Putin claims Russian forces seized Kostyantynivka despite evidence to contrary
Putin announced a military victory in Kostyantynivka, which was contradicted by independent reports. This attempt to project strength came amid falling approval ratings and ongoing military setbacks, reflecting the Kremlin's struggle to maintain public confidence.
Poll Shows Steepest Drop in Putin's Approval Rating Since Start of War
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
State pollster VTsIOM published results showing Putin's approval and trust ratings suffered their sharpest weekly decline since February 2022, reflecting public frustration over fuel shortages.
Putin dismisses fuel shortages amid intensified Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
On July 3, Putin publicly downplayed fuel shortages in Russia despite ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes on oil refineries, signaling his intent to continue the conflict. This reinforced perceptions of his political resilience, contributing to low market odds for his exit in the near term.
Putin claims Russian forces seized Kostyantynivka amid ongoing war challenges
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
Putin publicly claimed a military victory in Kostyantynivka despite evidence to the contrary, attempting to project strength amid declining approval ratings and fuel shortages. This effort aimed to maintain his image and political stability, dampening market expectations of his removal.
Russia Launches Massive Retaliatory Missile and Drone Attack on Kyiv
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Russia launched an exceptionally deadly 11-hour bombardment on Kyiv, killing at least 22 people, in what Moscow declared was direct retaliation for Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil facilities.
Ukrainian President Zelensky links Russian attacks to upcoming State Duma elections
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities are partly aimed at rallying support for the United Russia party ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections. This highlighted Putin's political strategy to consolidate power, reinforcing market expectations of his continued presidency through 2026.
Anonymous $400,000 bet placed on Putin leaving office by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
A large anonymous wager on Polymarket predicted Putin would cease to be president by December 31, 2026, reflecting growing market speculation and possibly insider knowledge about Putin's political future amid ongoing pressures.
Fuel shortages worsen in Russia as officials ration supplies amid Ukrainian strikes
By early July 2026, fuel shortages in Russia deepened due to ongoing Ukrainian attacks on refineries, leading to rationing and public frustration. This crisis increased domestic pressure on Putin's administration but did not translate into credible threats to his presidency within the market's timeframe.
Anonymous Polymarket user places $400,000 bet on Putin leaving office by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
An anonymous user on the Polymarket prediction market placed a large wager predicting that Vladimir Putin would no longer be President of Russia by December 31, 2026. This high-stakes bet increased market attention and speculation about Putin's potential exit, influencing price movements in the market.
Large Polymarket Bets Placed on Vladimir Putin's Downfall by End of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
A newly created prediction market account placed massive wagers on Polymarket predicting Putin would be out of office by December 31, 2026, driving up the implied probability of his exit.
Large anonymous bet placed on Polymarket predicting Putin's exit by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
A newcomer to the Polymarket prediction market placed a large wager that Putin would no longer be President by the end of 2026, increasing market attention and speculation about his potential exit, influencing price movements.
Putin chairs Security Council meeting amid military and economic pressures
On July 1, Putin chaired a Security Council meeting in Moscow, demonstrating continued exercise of presidential authority amid ongoing military and economic challenges. This event showed Putin's active leadership, reducing fears of immediate political instability and contributing to a decline in market prices for his exit by the end of 2026.
Putin and Trump hold 90-minute call ahead of NATO summit amid Ukraine conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%3%
Putin's call with Trump, where the US leader offered help to end the Ukraine war, underscored ongoing geopolitical tensions but did not indicate any imminent change in Putin's presidency, keeping market odds stable.
Putin chairs Security Council meeting amid ongoing war and domestic challenges
August 31, 2026 dips to 2%4%
On July 1, Putin chaired a Security Council meeting in Moscow, demonstrating continued exercise of presidential authority amid military and economic pressures. This reinforced perceptions of his ongoing control and reduced market speculation about imminent departure.
Putin chairs emergency Security Council meeting amid worsening war situation
July 31, 2026 drops to 0%9%
Putin chaired an emergency meeting at the weekend to address the deteriorating military situation, signaling potential instability in his leadership amid ongoing battlefield challenges.
Anonymous bettor places $400,000 wager on Putin's removal by end of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
A mysterious large bet on Polymarket predicted Putin would be out of office by December 31, 2026, signaling increased market interest and speculation about his political future. This bet influenced market prices, especially for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin ties himself publicly to United Russia party ahead of State Duma elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Putin's speech at the United Russia party congress on June 29 aimed to project strength and popular support ahead of the September 2026 elections, reinforcing his political control and reducing market speculation about his imminent removal.
Russian veteran Alexander Lunin detained after warning of military mutiny
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
Alexander Lunin, a former volunteer fighter, publicly warned of possible military mutiny if Putin did not meet with him to address soldier abuses. His detention underscored rare public dissent within military ranks, increasing speculation about Putin's political stability and causing a rise in market prices for his exit by year-end.
Putin acknowledges fuel shortages after Ukrainian drone strikes
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
Following a series of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, President Putin publicly acknowledged fuel shortages and convened emergency meetings to address the crisis. This highlighted vulnerabilities in Putin's administration and contributed to increased market speculation about his political stability.
Putin ties himself to United Russia party ahead of September elections
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
Putin formally associated himself with the United Russia party, which campaigned explicitly as "the party of the president" for the first time since 2007. This move reinforced his political control and reduced market speculation about his imminent departure, stabilizing prices for later exit dates.
Putin addresses United Russia party convention ahead of September elections
Putin spoke at the United Russia party convention, framing the upcoming legislative elections as a test of the political system's strength, reinforcing his position but also highlighting the political context ahead of the September 2026 elections.
Putin and military commanders exaggerate territorial gains in Ukraine
June 30, 2027 plunges to 17%19%
On June 29, Putin and Russian military officials made inflated claims of territorial advances in Ukraine, attempting to bolster domestic support despite battlefield setbacks, influencing market perceptions of his political stability.
Anonymous Polymarket Trader Wagers Nearly $500,000 on Putin's Exit by End of 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%2%
An anonymous trader under the username ZnotluvuiSamez purchased over 3.6 million 'Yes' shares, betting that Putin would be out of office by December 31, 2026. This massive high-stakes wager drew widespread media coverage and temporarily drove up the volume and odds for the 2026 contract.
Zelensky states Putin demands capture of Donbas by December 31, 2026
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Ukrainian President Zelensky's statement that Putin set a deadline for capturing Donbas intensified geopolitical tensions and contributed to market speculation about Putin's political survival.
Putin publicly supports ruling party ahead of September elections
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
On June 29, 2026, Putin spoke at a party convention in Moscow, endorsing the electoral process as a test of strength for the political system. This reinforced expectations that the September 2026 State Duma elections would maintain the current power balance, reducing near-term chances of leadership change.
Ukrainian drones strike Russian oil refinery amid fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries, including Moscow's main refinery, intensified fuel shortages in Russia, creating a political crisis that put additional pressure on Putin's government and influenced market perceptions of his stability.
Putin admits fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
On June 28, 2026, Vladimir Putin publicly acknowledged that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries had caused domestic fuel shortages and rationing. This admission highlighted the domestic strain of the ongoing war and increased public frustration, which slightly raised speculation about Putin's political stability, impacting the December 31, 2026 market outcome.
Putin addresses fuel shortages, downplays crisis in Moscow interview
September 30, 2026 dips to 4%3%
Following Ukrainian drone strikes on Moscow oil infrastructure, Putin publicly acknowledged fuel shortages but described the situation as not critical and promised swift resolution. This reassured some market participants about his control over domestic issues, tempering expectations of his removal.
Putin delivers speech reinforcing military resolve amid declining battlefield performance
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
In a speech to the United Russia Party Congress, Putin projected strength and military resolve despite Russia's declining battlefield performance in Ukraine. The speech aimed to bolster domestic support but underscored ongoing challenges, contributing to cautious market sentiment about his tenure.
Ukrainian drone strikes cause fuel shortages, creating political crisis for Putin
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Ukrainian drone and missile strikes knocked out up to 28% of Russia's refining capacity, including Moscow's main refinery, leading to fuel shortages and a serious political crisis for Putin. This heightened doubts about his political stability and contributed to market price declines for his continued presidency.
Putin acknowledges fuel supply problems amid ongoing Ukrainian attacks
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
Putin publicly admitted that Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil refineries were causing problems, though he denied the situation was critical. This acknowledgment reflected growing domestic challenges and contributed to a decline in his approval ratings, influencing market sentiment.
Putin publicly acknowledges severe fuel shortages amid Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
On June 28, 2026, Vladimir Putin admitted to fuel shortages in Russia caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refineries, which intensified public frustration and economic difficulties. This admission highlighted growing domestic challenges but did not signal any political instability or leadership change, resulting in only minor market impact on the probability of Putin leaving office by year-end.
Putin addresses United Russia party congress, asserts strength amid challenges
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
On June 28, 2026, Vladimir Putin spoke at the United Russia party congress, emphasizing Russia's resilience and portraying victory as inevitable despite military setbacks. This reinforced perceptions of his political stability and contributed to market confidence in his continued presidency through 2026.
Putin publicly acknowledges fuel shortages amid Ukrainian drone strikes
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
On June 28, Putin admitted that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian oil refineries caused domestic fuel shortages and rationing, highlighting economic strain. This acknowledgment underscored vulnerabilities in Putin's administration but did not immediately shift market odds significantly.
Putin delivers speech at United Russia party congress projecting strength
Putin's June 28 speech to the United Russia party congress emphasized Russia's military resolve and framed victory in Ukraine as inevitable, aiming to bolster domestic support and quell doubts about his leadership. This reassured markets about his political stability, limiting upward price movement for his exit.
Putin ties himself publicly to United Russia ahead of elections
Putin's speech at the United Russia Party Congress reinforced his political dominance and commitment to the war in Ukraine, aiming to project strength and secure electoral support. This bolstered market confidence in his continued presidency through 2026.
Putin admits fuel shortages amid intensified Ukrainian drone strikes
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Putin acknowledged fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, signaling domestic challenges but downplaying their criticality, which contributed to market uncertainty about his political strength.
Putin admits Ukrainian drone attacks caused Russian fuel shortages
July 31, 2026 drops to 0%9%
Putin publicly acknowledged that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries had caused domestic fuel shortages and rationing, intensifying public frustration and economic difficulties, which contributed to market price movement.
Putin addresses United Russia party congress amid energy crisis
June 30, 2027 plunges to 18%18%
Putin publicly tied himself to the United Russia party ahead of the September elections, with the party campaigning as 'the party of the president.' This move reinforced his political control despite fuel shortages caused by Ukrainian drone strikes, signaling no immediate threat to his presidency.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping delivers stern ultimatum to Putin amid war pressures
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Xi Jinping's personal call to Putin marked a shift from neutrality to direct pressure, signaling Beijing's demand for change in Moscow's approach and increasing market bearishness on Putin's longevity as president.
Putin ties himself to United Russia party ahead of September elections
On June 28, Putin publicly associated himself with the United Russia party, reinforcing his political control ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections. This move was intended to project strength and popular support, reducing market speculation about his imminent departure and stabilizing prices for later exit dates.
Putin admits Ukrainian drone strikes causing Russian fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Putin publicly acknowledged that Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries were creating fuel shortages and rationing in Russia, signaling domestic strain but reaffirming his commitment to continue the war effort. This admission highlighted growing internal challenges but did not indicate any imminent political change, causing some market uncertainty.
Putin's speech at United Russia Congress projects strength amid war challenges
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
On June 28, Putin delivered a speech to the United Russia Party Congress emphasizing Russia's military resolve and framing victory in Ukraine as inevitable. He publicly tied himself to the party, reinforcing political control ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections. This reassured markets about his political stability, limiting upward price movement for his exit.
Chinese Leader Xi Jinping Reportedly Delivers Ultimatum to Putin in Personal Call
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
Chinese leader Xi Jinping reportedly pressured Vladimir Putin during a personal phone call, signaling a shift from neutrality to direct pressure. This development, combined with domestic political challenges, influenced traders' expectations regarding Putin's long-term political survival.
Putin Admits Ukraine Drone Strikes Are Creating Fuel Shortages and Problems in Russia
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
In a rare public admission of wartime setbacks, Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged that Ukrainian drone strikes on energy infrastructure have caused fuel shortages and queues at petrol stations.
Putin delivers speech reinforcing war resolve ahead of State Duma elections
December 31, 2026 drops to 9%5%
Putin's June 28 speech at the United Russia Congress projected strength and military resolve, aiming to consolidate support ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections, which were expected to reinforce his power, thereby reducing market expectations of his early exit.
Putin ties himself publicly to United Russia ahead of September elections
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
On June 26, 2026, Putin formally associated himself with the United Russia party, reinforcing his political control ahead of the September 2026 State Duma elections. This move signaled continuity of leadership and reduced speculation about his imminent departure, contributing to stable or declining odds for his exit by year-end.
Putin’s approval rating begins sharp decline after Ukraine’s major strike
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Following Ukraine’s largest strike on Moscow Oblast, Putin’s approval rating fell from 74% to 69% between June 12 and June 21, signaling growing domestic dissatisfaction and impacting market confidence in his continued presidency through 2026.
Ukrainian drone and missile strikes cause fuel shortages in Russia, creating political pressure on Putin
December 31, 2026 jumps to 17%8%
Ukraine intensified strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, knocking out up to 28% of refining capacity and causing fuel shortages in at least 17 regions. This created a political crisis for Putin, reflected in market uncertainty about his hold on power.
Putin's approval rating dips amid military setbacks and fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
In late June 2026, Russian polls showed a decline in Putin's approval and trust ratings, influenced by military challenges in Ukraine and domestic fuel shortages. This contributed to a temporary increase in market speculation about his potential exit by the end of 2026, reflected in a price rise for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin's approval rating sharply falls amid ongoing war and political pressures
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Polls released in late June showed a significant decline in Putin's approval and trust ratings, reflecting growing domestic dissatisfaction. This contributed to a temporary increase in market odds for his exit by December 31, 2026, as political fragility was perceived to rise.
Putin ties himself to United Russia ahead of September elections amid fuel crisis
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
Putin formally associated with United Russia party, which campaigned as "the party of the president," reinforcing his political control ahead of the 2026 State Duma elections. Concurrently, Ukraine's intensified strikes caused fuel shortages in Russia, creating political pressure but no immediate threat to Putin's presidency.
Russian veteran Aleksandr Lunin threatens military mutiny unless allowed to meet Putin live
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Lunin's viral video warning of a potential military mutiny and demand for a live meeting with Putin highlighted internal dissent and military dissatisfaction, increasing market speculation about regime instability.
France Seizes Russian Shadow Fleet Tanker 'Deliver' in Mediterranean
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%3%
The French Navy intercepted and boarded the shadow fleet tanker 'Deliver' near Sicily, escalating European enforcement of sanctions on Russian energy exports and squeezing Moscow's war funding.
Putin and Trump hold 90-minute phone call discussing Ukraine
The lengthy phone conversation between Putin and US President Trump may have signaled diplomatic shifts, contributing to market speculation about Putin's political future amid ongoing Ukraine conflict.
Putin's expression at memorial sparks renewed health speculation
At Russia's Day of Memory and Sorrow ceremony, Putin's unusually rigid and expressionless face reignited global speculation about his health, fueling doubts about his physical condition and political stability, which influenced market sentiment.
Putin reportedly suffered a stroke, fueling health rumors
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
Following the frail appearances, reports emerged on June 19 suggesting Putin may have suffered a stroke, intensifying concerns about his health and potential incapacity. This speculation contributed to a brief rise in market odds for his removal, reflecting increased uncertainty about his presidency's continuity.
Putin's frail appearance sparks health concerns amid psychological blow theory
Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared increasingly frail in public appearances, fueling speculation about his health and causing some market participants to reassess the likelihood of his continued presidency through 2026. This contributed to a drop in market prices for his continued tenure by late 2026.
Russian central bank chief's absence sparks succession speculation
Elvira Nabiullina, the Russian central bank chief, was absent from several high-profile events, stirring rumors about potential leadership changes. However, this did not translate into any immediate impact on Putin's presidency or market prices for his removal by year-end.
Speculation rises over Putin's health after frail public appearances
Putin appeared increasingly frail during public appearances, including slurred speech and physical symptoms, sparking widespread speculation about his health and ability to continue in office. This fueled some market reassessment of his political future but did not lead to immediate price spikes for his exit.
Ukrainian drone strike hits Moscow oil refinery causing fuel shortages
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Ukraine launched a drone attack on Moscow's largest oil refinery, leading to significant fuel shortages and long queues at petrol stations across Russia. This event heightened public frustration and put pressure on Putin's government, impacting market perceptions of his stability.
Putin appears frail with slurred speech at ASEAN summit, raising health concerns
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Putin's visible frailty and speech difficulties at the ASEAN summit sparked speculation about his health and ability to continue as president, causing a temporary increase in market probabilities for his removal by year-end.
Putin appears frail at ASEAN Summit amid health concerns
Russian President Vladimir Putin's increasingly frail appearance at the ASEAN Summit sparked health concerns and speculation about his ability to continue in office, causing some market uncertainty about his tenure.
Suspect in killing of Putin critic arrested in Poland
December 31, 2026 jumps to 14%5%
The arrest of a suspect in Poland for the killing of a Russian artist critical of Putin heightened concerns about political stability and dissent within Russia, briefly increasing speculation about Putin's political future and impacting the December 31, 2026 market outcome.
Reports highlight Vladimir Putin's frail appearance and health concerns
Multiple reports on June 18 noted Putin's frail appearance and slurred speech during public events, sparking health concerns and speculation about his ability to continue in office. This contributed to some market uncertainty about his tenure but did not cause a significant price move.
Putin hosts ASEAN summit, projecting political stability amid challenges
On June 18, Putin made public statements following the Russia-ASEAN Summit, emphasizing ongoing diplomatic and economic cooperation, which helped maintain market confidence in his presidency continuing through 2026.
Putin's health concerns rise after frail appearances at ASEAN summit
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%4%
On June 18, 2026, multiple reports highlighted Vladimir Putin's frail appearance, including slurred speech and physical difficulties during public events such as the ASEAN summit and a meeting with Xi Jinping. These health concerns raised speculation about his ability to continue as president, causing a temporary increase in market probabilities for his removal by year-end.
Putin signs decree scheduling September 20 legislative elections
On June 16, 2026, Putin signed a decree setting the date for the 2026 Russian legislative elections, signaling continuity in the political calendar and reinforcing expectations of his continued presidency through the election period.
Ukrainian President Zelenskiy offers to meet Putin at G7 summit for peace talks
Zelenskiy publicly proposed talks with Putin at the G7 summit or in the US to end the ongoing war, signaling potential diplomatic engagement but no immediate impact on Putin's presidency. This offer did not lead to any resignation or removal, so market impact was limited.
Ukrainian President Zelensky offers to meet Putin at G7 summit for peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 10%1%
Zelensky's offer to meet Putin at the G7 summit or in the US aimed to initiate peace talks to end the war, highlighting ongoing diplomatic efforts amid the conflict. This maintained market focus on Putin's political stability but did not significantly alter removal odds.
Mood in Russia turns against Putin amid economic woes and war fatigue
By late May, reports highlighted profound disappointment in Putin among elites and the public, slipping approval ratings, and economic decline. Despite this, Putin remained determined to continue the war and showed no signs of stepping down, maintaining the market's low probability of his removal by the end of 2026.
Former top Russian official says country is 'over Putin' and imagines future without him
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
A former senior Kremlin official publicly acknowledged growing elite disillusionment with Putin and the possibility of a future Russia without him. This signaled increasing internal cracks but did not indicate an immediate removal, reflecting cautious market sentiment lowering the probability of Putin's exit by end 2026.
Putin attends scaled-back Victory Day parade amid drone attack fears
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
Putin's public appearance at the May 9 Victory Day parade, which was scaled back due to fears of Ukrainian drone attacks, was a carefully managed display to counter rumors of his retreat or incapacity. This event reinforced his continued grip on power despite internal and external pressures, tempering market expectations of his imminent removal.
Russians turn to cash amid internet blackouts
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
Frequent mobile internet outages, attributed to security measures against Ukrainian drone attacks, led to a surge in cash usage in Russia. This highlighted growing domestic instability and economic disruption, contributing to market uncertainty about Putin's political stability but not directly signaling his removal.
Putin replaces Dagestan leader amid political reshuffle
On May 4, Putin dismissed the head of Dagestan and appointed a new acting leader, signaling internal political adjustments but no indication of Putin stepping down. This event reflected ongoing regime management rather than a threat to Putin's presidency, thus having limited impact on the market's outlook for his removal by end 2026.
Putin Announces 32-Hour Orthodox Easter Ceasefire with Ukraine
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Russian President Vladimir Putin declared a temporary ceasefire for Orthodox Easter, which Ukraine agreed to observe, temporarily easing frontline hostilities.
Putin Demands Oligarchs Donate to Russia's Dwindling Defense Budget
Putin met with Russia's business elites to demand financial contributions for the war effort, signaling both fiscal strain and his absolute authority over the country's oligarchs.
Kremlin propagandist Ilya Remeslo publicly calls for Putin's resignation and trial
Ilya Remeslo, a former Kremlin propagandist, published a manifesto denouncing Putin as an illegitimate president and calling for his resignation and prosecution as a war criminal. This rare public dissent highlighted cracks in Putin's support but did not lead to any immediate political change or removal.
Former Loyalist Lawyer Ilya Remeslo Publishes Manifesto Calling for Putin's Resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
St. Petersburg lawyer Ilya Remeslo publicly turned on Putin, calling him an illegitimate president over the dead-end war in Ukraine, before being placed in a psychiatric ward within 48 hours.
Putin Warns Russia May Halt Gas Supplies to Europe Amid Middle East Energy Spike
President Vladimir Putin suggested Russia could preemptively stop gas exports to Europe to capitalize on rising energy prices and secure new markets, demonstrating his leverage and political stability.
Putin maintains firm stance amid ongoing war and no resignation signs
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%1%
Throughout early 2026, Putin continued to project strength and resolve regarding the Ukraine conflict, with no credible reports of resignation or removal. This sustained the market's low probability for his exit by the end of 2026.
Russian general shot and wounded in Moscow, investigation ongoing
An attack on a high-ranking military official in Moscow raised concerns about internal security and stability within Russia’s leadership. Kremlin spokesman confirmed investigation and reporting to Putin, but no direct indication of threat to Putin’s presidency emerged.
Putin Faces Mounting Military and Economic Challenges Amid Ukraine War
By early February 2026, reports indicated Russia's military was suffering heavy losses and failing to make significant gains in Ukraine, while economic pressures persisted. These challenges increased speculation about Putin's political future but did not produce immediate changes, keeping market probabilities low.
Putin chairs Kremlin meeting amid ongoing war and domestic pressures
On February 2, 2026, Putin was publicly active, chairing meetings on industrial development, demonstrating continued exercise of presidential duties and no signs of incapacitation or removal, supporting market confidence in his ongoing presidency.
Analysis highlights mounting pressures on Putin’s regime amid Ukraine war challenges
December 31, 2026 rises to 12%2%
A February 2, 2026 report detailed Russia’s military setbacks and internal challenges but concluded the Putin regime was far from collapse. This tempered market expectations for a near-term leadership change, keeping probabilities for Putin’s departure low.
Putin's credibility crumbles amid ongoing Ukraine war and diplomatic isolation
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
Analysts reported that Putin's credibility was eroding domestically and internationally due to the prolonged war and lack of progress in peace talks, increasing uncertainty about his long-term hold on power. However, no direct indication of imminent removal was observed, keeping market prices low.
Putin’s credibility questioned amid ongoing Ukraine war and mounting challenges
By mid-January 2026, analysts noted growing challenges for Putin on the battlefield and at home, with no breakthroughs in Ukraine and increasing pressure, but no indication of his removal or resignation, maintaining market skepticism about a leadership change.
Dozens of municipal deputies petition for Putin’s resignation
Municipal deputies from Moscow and St. Petersburg publicly called for Putin to resign, signaling some political opposition. However, this did not translate into immediate political change or affect Putin’s hold on power, resulting in minimal market impact.
Dozens of Moscow and St. Petersburg deputies call for Putin’s resignation
An open letter signed by municipal deputies demanded Putin’s resignation, reflecting some internal political dissent. However, this did not translate into significant market movement, indicating limited impact on Putin’s hold on power.
Moscow and St. Petersburg deputies publicly call for Putin’s resignation
Dozens of municipal deputies from major Russian cities issued an open letter demanding Putin’s resignation, signaling political dissent but failing to shift market expectations significantly.
Dozens of municipal deputies call for Putin’s resignation in open letter
On January 13, 2026, municipal deputies from Moscow and St. Petersburg publicly demanded Vladimir Putin’s resignation. Despite this opposition, the call did not lead to any immediate political change or signals of Putin stepping down, thus having limited impact on the market probability of his exit by end 2026.
Dozens of Russian Municipal Deputies Petition for Putin Resignation
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Municipal deputies from Moscow and St. Petersburg signed an open letter demanding Vladimir Putin's resignation, citing his actions as detrimental to Russia's future.
European Commission open to direct talks with Putin but conditions remain
The European Commission expressed willingness for direct dialogue with Putin to end the Ukraine war, but ongoing hostilities and sanctions keep the situation unresolved, maintaining Putin’s position for now.
European Commission opens door to future direct talks with Putin but conditions remain
The European Commission publicly stated openness to direct talks with Putin to end the Ukraine war but emphasized that ongoing Russian attacks prevent such dialogue now. This indicated Putin’s continued role as Russia’s leader with no signs of stepping down.
Rumors swirl about health of Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov
Reports emerged about the poor health of Putin ally Ramzan Kadyrov, fueling speculation about internal stability within Putin's circle. While not directly about Putin, such rumors contributed to market uncertainty regarding the Kremlin's future leadership dynamics.
Putin begins 2026 in challenging position, rejects compromise peace
Analysis indicated Putin's reluctance to accept any peace deal that preserves Ukrainian statehood, signaling his intent to maintain power and continue the conflict. This contributed to the market's low probability of his removal by end of 2026.
Peace deal talks 90% complete but Kremlin stalls progress
Despite claims by European, U.S., and Ukrainian officials that a peace agreement with Russia was 90% complete, Putin’s Kremlin stalled negotiations, maintaining a hardline stance. This diminished market expectations for a quick resolution or leadership change, keeping 'Yes' probabilities low.
Peace deal with Russia 90% complete but Kremlin stalls negotiations
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%1%
In early January 2026, European, U.S., and Ukrainian officials stated that a peace agreement with Russia was 90% complete, but the Kremlin, led by Putin, stalled progress by distancing itself from draft terms. This prolonged conflict and Putin's control over the process reduced market expectations of his removal by the end of 2026.
Peace talks in Paris show 90% deal completion but Kremlin stalls
Diplomatic efforts to end the war reached 90% completion, but Putin's Kremlin stalled progress, indicating Putin's continued control and no sign of stepping down, which maintained low market prices for his removal.
Peace talks between Russia, Ukraine, and US stall amid Kremlin resistance
December 31, 2026 rises to 11%1%
Despite claims by European, US, and Ukrainian officials that a peace deal was 90% complete, Kremlin's position remained distant from draft terms in January 2026 talks, with Putin justifying delays citing security concerns. This stalemate indicated Putin's unwillingness to compromise or relinquish power soon, maintaining low market odds for his exit.
Putin ends 2025 with high approval ratings amid ongoing war
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Polling data released in early January 2026 showed Putin's approval rating at 85%, near all-time highs, reflecting strong domestic support despite economic slowdown and war pressures. This high approval likely contributed to the market's reduced probability of Putin leaving office by end 2026.
Polls show Putin maintains high approval ratings amid war
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
Independent polling from the Levada Centre indicated that Putin continued to enjoy strong public support despite the ongoing war, reducing market expectations of his removal within the near term.
Zelensky announces peace deal is 90% ready in New Year speech
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%1%
Ukrainian President Zelensky stated the peace deal with Russia is 90% ready, adding diplomatic pressure on Putin to engage, though Russian resistance remains strong.
Putin Signs Decree Mandating Year-Round Military Conscription
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%2%
Putin signed a decree to transition Russian conscription offices to year-round operations starting in 2026, signaling long-term preparation for sustained conflict and reinforcing his hold on power.
Putin delivers muted New Year address, vows victory in Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 11%3%
In his New Year address, Putin emphasized confidence in victory and unity among Russians, avoiding mention of peace talks or resignation. This reinforced perceptions of his continued hold on power, contributing to a slight market decline in the probability of his removal.
Putin Delivers Traditional New Year's Address Projecting Unity and Vowing Victory
December 31, 2026 dips to 9%3%
Putin used his annual address to rally the nation and project an image of stability and strength, dampening expectations of an imminent exit from the presidency.
Putin delivers defiant New Year's address vowing victory in Ukraine war
On December 31, 2025, Vladimir Putin used his New Year's Eve address to rally Russians around the war effort, expressing confidence in victory and reaffirming his leadership. This speech underscored his determination to remain in power and continue the conflict, dampening market expectations of his early departure.
Putin vows victory in Ukraine war in defiant New Year address
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
On December 31, 2025, Putin publicly vowed victory in the Ukraine war, praising Russian soldiers and framing the conflict as vital to national survival. This defiant stance underscored his firm grip on power and diminished speculation about his resignation or removal.
Putin uses New Year’s Address to rally Russians around ongoing war effort
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
On December 31, 2025, Putin delivered a New Year’s address marking his 26th year in power, focusing on national unity and the war effort. This public reaffirmation of leadership further diminished expectations of his resignation within 2026.
Putin delivers New Year’s address vowing victory in Ukraine war
In his December 31 New Year’s Eve speech, Putin rallied Russians around the war effort, expressing confidence in victory and showing no signs of resignation or political retreat. This bolstered market sentiment that Putin would remain in power through 2026.
Putin delivers New Year address reaffirming leadership and war resolve
In his New Year speech, Putin emphasized victory in Ukraine and national unity, signaling no intention to step down or compromise, which likely reduced market expectations of his early departure.
Putin delivers muted New Year address emphasizing unity and war victory
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Putin's New Year address on December 30, 2025, was brief and focused on rallying Russians around the war effort and national unity, with no indication of stepping down. This reinforced market confidence in his continued presidency through 2026.
Putin delivers defiant New Year address vowing victory in Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 10%3%
In his December 30, 2025 New Year address, Putin vowed victory in the Ukraine conflict and framed the war as vital to Russia's survival, reinforcing his leadership role and commitment to ongoing conflict, which likely suppressed market expectations of his departure.
Zelensky Denies Alleged Ukrainian Drone Attack on Putin's Residence
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Ukraine denied Russian allegations of a drone strike targeting one of Putin's residences, an incident that threatened to derail peace talks and escalate tensions but did not result in physical harm to the Russian leader.
Russia alleges Ukrainian drone assassination attempt on Putin's residence
December 31, 2026 rises to 13%1%
Russian officials claimed Ukraine launched 91 drones in an assassination attempt on Putin's residence, escalating tensions and impacting peace negotiations. This event caused a temporary market reaction, increasing perceived risks to Putin's position but did not indicate imminent removal.
Putin and Trump agree to continue peace talks after Mar-a-Lago meeting
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
Following a December 28, 2025, phone call, Putin and US President Donald Trump agreed to further discussions on peace, but no breakthrough occurred. This maintained uncertainty but did not signal Putin's removal, keeping market prices steady.
Putin holds strategic meeting with military leadership ahead of US-Ukraine talks
Putin met with Russian General Staff and commanders to discuss military operations just before the US President’s meeting with Ukraine’s Zelensky, signaling no political change or resignation plans. This meeting aimed to project strength and continuity in leadership.
Trump and Zelenskyy Meet at Mar-a-Lago to Discuss Peace Plan After Productive Call with Putin
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
High-stakes negotiations in Florida brought the sides closer to a potential peace deal, reinforcing the likelihood of a negotiated settlement rather than an abrupt, unmanaged regime change in Russia.
Putin and Trump discuss Ukrainian conflict, agree on working groups
A telephone conversation between Putin and U.S. President Trump resulted in agreement to continue diplomatic efforts via working groups on security and economic issues. Despite this, no indication emerged that Putin would step down, maintaining market skepticism about his removal.
Putin agrees with Trump to continue diplomatic efforts on Ukraine conflict
On December 28, 2025, Putin held a telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump, agreeing to continue efforts to resolve the Ukraine conflict through working groups on security and economic issues. This diplomatic engagement suggested Putin's ongoing active role as president, reducing market expectations of his imminent exit.
Putin indicates openness to territory swap in Ukraine but insists on Donbas
Putin's meeting with top businessmen and his statement about territorial concessions in Ukraine showed his active engagement in political strategy and control, suggesting stability in his presidency and no signs of imminent resignation or removal.
Putin signals openness to partial territory swap in Ukraine peace talks
Putin indicated willingness to consider a partial territorial exchange in Ukraine while insisting on retaining Donbas, reflecting a pragmatic approach to peace talks. This suggested political stability and continuity in Putin’s leadership, which likely contributed to the market’s reduced probability of his early exit.
Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev speaks at Miami peace talks
Dmitriev participated in December 2025 Miami peace talks with U.S. negotiators, signaling Russia's diplomatic engagement despite Putin's resistance to the 90% complete peace deal.
Speculation Swirls That Putin Could Step Down Following a Post-War Peace Deal
Reports emerged suggesting that if a peace deal is finalized at the upcoming Mar-a-Lago meeting, Putin might step down in favor of a more moderate successor like Dmitri Kozak, having secured his legacy.
Russia Reports Slow but Steady Progress in Peace Talks with United States
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova stated that talks with the U.S. regarding Ukraine were progressing constructively, signaling potential diplomatic stabilization rather than sudden regime disruption.
Putin offers no compromise on Ukraine war in year-end press conference
In his December 19, 2025, annual press conference, Putin reiterated his uncompromising stance on the Ukraine conflict, signaling no intention to step down or seek peace concessions. This reinforced market confidence in his continued presidency, contributing to stable prices.
Putin holds end-of-year press conference, offers no compromise on Ukraine war
Putin's firm stance on the Ukraine conflict during his annual press conference signaled his continued control and unwillingness to step down or negotiate terms that might imply weakening his position. This reinforced market confidence in his presidency lasting beyond 2026.
Putin holds annual end-of-year press conference reaffirming war aims
At his December 19 press conference, Putin emphasized Russia's military advances and reiterated his commitment to achieving war goals in Ukraine, signaling no intention to step down or compromise. This reinforced market confidence in his continued presidency, contributing to stable low prices for 'Yes' outcomes.
Putin Vows No More Invasions if West Treats Russia with Respect During Direct Line Marathon
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
During his annual televised 'Direct Line' press conference, Vladimir Putin projected confidence, addressed economic concerns, and outlined conditions for ending the war in Ukraine, signaling his intention to remain firmly in control.
Putin asserts Kremlin's military goals in Ukraine will be met at annual press conference
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
At his annual year-end press conference, Vladimir Putin expressed confidence that Russian forces were advancing and that Russia would achieve its military objectives in Ukraine, signaling his continued control and leadership. This public display of strength likely contributed to the market's decreased probability of Putin leaving office by the end of 2026.
Putin holds annual news conference affirming military goals in Ukraine
Putin expressed confidence in achieving military objectives in Ukraine, reinforcing his leadership and control. This public show of strength likely reduced market expectations of his early departure.
Putin Delivers Year-End Address Emphasizing War Effort and Stability
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%1%
On December 19, 2025, Vladimir Putin gave a year-end address reinforcing his commitment to Russia's war efforts and national stability, signaling no intention to step down. This reassured supporters but did not alleviate concerns about his long-term hold on power, contributing to a slight market price decline.
Putin delivers 2025 Year-End Address reaffirming leadership and policy direction
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
In his December 19, 2025, address and press conference, Putin emphasized continuity in governance and Russia's strategic posture, signaling no intention to resign or step down. This reinforced market confidence in his continued presidency through 2026, contributing to stable or slightly declining probabilities for his departure.
Putin holds year-end press conference with no indication of stepping down
Putin's year-end Q&A reiterated his stance on the Ukraine war and showed no signs of resignation or removal, reinforcing market confidence in his continued presidency.
Retired Russian General Calls for Putin Resignation Over Ukraine War
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, publicly urged Putin to resign or be removed by constitutional procedures, signaling growing military dissent about the Ukraine conflict's viability.
ICC confirms Putin arrest warrant remains despite peace talks
The International Criminal Court stated that arrest warrants for Putin will remain active even if peace talks lead to amnesty, underscoring ongoing legal pressures but no immediate effect on his presidency.
Putin vows to seize Donbas region by any means amid upcoming peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
On December 4, Putin publicly reaffirmed Russia's determination to seize the Donbas region by military or other means, signaling continued strong leadership and no indication of stepping down. This statement maintained market expectations of Putin's ongoing presidency.
Putin reiterates war aims and rejects compromise in India interview
In an interview ahead of his India visit, Putin emphasized that Russia will end the Ukraine war only after achieving his original goals, rejecting compromise and demanding NATO rollback. This reinforced expectations of Putin's continued leadership and reduced speculation about his removal.
Analysis highlights regime transition without clear successor for Putin
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Reports indicated that personnel changes and political restructuring in 2024-2025 marked the start of a regime transition concentrating authority in Putin's hands but delegating routine management, suggesting no imminent departure.
Putin's Scheduled December Q&A and India Visit Confirm Continued Leadership
Putin's planned annual Q&A session and state visit to India in December 2025 demonstrated his active role in governance and international diplomacy, reinforcing market confidence in his ongoing presidency and lowering chances of early departure.
Putin Declares Russia Ready for War if Europe Seeks It
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
Putin warned European leaders against sabotaging peace efforts and stated Russia was prepared for conflict if provoked, reinforcing his long-term grip on national defense.
Putin warns Europe: Russia ready for war if provoked
On the eve of peace talks, Putin publicly warned Europe that Russia was prepared for war, signaling a hardline stance and consolidating his authority. This assertiveness likely diminished market expectations of his stepping down or being removed soon.
Putin doubles down on threats toward Europe ahead of US peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 14%1%
Ahead of peace talks with the US, Putin declared Russia was ready for war with Europe, signaling a hardline stance and continued control over Russian policy. This reinforced expectations of his ongoing presidency and reduced market odds of his removal.
Putin rejects US-Ukrainian peace proposal in Moscow meeting
During a December 2 meeting with a US delegation, Putin rejected the 28-point peace plan, maintaining maximalist war goals and showing no sign of political transition. This rejection likely contributed to market stability in low probability of Putin's exit.
Putin meets US envoys to discuss revised Ukraine peace proposal
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%2%
On December 2, Putin met with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Moscow to discuss a revised 28-point peace plan for Ukraine. This high-profile diplomatic engagement underscored Putin's active leadership role, with no signs of resignation or removal, influencing market sentiment downward slightly.
Putin meets US envoys in Moscow, reiterates firm stance on Ukraine
Putin met with US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, reaffirming Russia's objectives in Ukraine and rejecting compromises on key demands, signaling his continued control and leadership role.
Putin meets US envoys, warns Russia ready for war with Europe
December 31, 2026 rises to 16%2%
On December 2, 2025, Putin met with US envoys and warned Europe of readiness for war, reinforcing his strongman image and signaling no intention to resign. This event likely sustained the market's low probability of his early exit.
Putin Affirms Readiness for War with Europe Ahead of Peace Talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Putin's public declaration of readiness for war with Europe ahead of peace talks signaled his unyielding stance and control over Russia's military and political direction, likely reducing market expectations of his imminent removal.
Resignation of Ukrainian presidential aide Andriy Yermak amid peace talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%1%
Andriy Yermak resigned as head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, signaling shifts in Ukraine's negotiating team during ongoing peace talks with Russia. This event affected market perceptions of the conflict's trajectory and Putin's political stability, influencing the December 31, 2026 outcome price.
Kremlin insider Dmitry Kozak resigns after criticizing war in letter to Putin
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Dmitry Kozak, a former deputy chief of staff and Kremlin insider, resigned after submitting a letter strongly criticizing the war in Ukraine. His departure removed a key figure who had influence and was seen as a moderate voice, potentially consolidating Putin's inner circle but also signaling internal dissent, which affected market perceptions of regime stability.
Zelenskyy's chief of staff resigns amid corruption investigations
December 31, 2026 dips to 15%2%
While significant for Ukraine, this event had no direct impact on Putin's presidency or indications of his removal. It likely had minimal or no effect on the market for Putin's exit.
Reports Reveal Dmitry Kozak Criticized Ukraine War in Letter to Putin Before Resigning
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Investigative reports detailed that former deputy chief of staff Dmitry Kozak strongly criticized the invasion of Ukraine in a letter to Putin before stepping down, highlighting the complete marginalization of critics within the regime.
Putin says US-backed peace plan as framework is OK ‘in general’
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Putin expressed conditional acceptance of the US-backed peace plan framework but insisted on Russia's territorial demands, signaling his continued control and unwillingness to compromise fully. This stance suggested stability in his presidency, contributing to a decline in market expectations of his removal.
Putin reaffirms readiness for war, rejects major concessions
At the CSTO summit, Putin declared Russia's readiness for war if Europe seeks it and rejected significant territorial concessions, signaling a continuation of his current policies. This stance likely decreased market expectations of his imminent departure, reflected in stable low prices for his removal.
Putin denies plans to attack Europe, offers written guarantee against invasion
December 31, 2026 rises to 16%2%
At the CSTO summit, Putin dismissed claims of Russian plans to invade Europe as lies and offered to guarantee in writing no attack on European nations, projecting confidence and stability in his leadership. This reassured markets about regime continuity.
Putin attends CSTO summit, endorses US peace plan framework with conditions
At the Collective Security Treaty Organization summit in Bishkek on November 27, 2025, Putin expressed conditional acceptance of the US-backed peace plan as a framework, showing diplomatic engagement but no sign of stepping down. This event sustained market expectations of Putin's continued presidency.
Putin Offers Written Guarantees of No Attack on Europe and Signals Openness to Peace Talks
Speaking at the CSTO summit in Bishkek, Putin dismissed fears of a Russian invasion of Europe as ridiculous and expressed willingness to document this guarantee, while projecting confidence in Russia's geopolitical position.
Putin doubles down on demands for Ukrainian territory ahead of US talks
Putin reiterated his core demands for Ukraine to withdraw from territories claimed by Russia, signaling no intention to compromise or step down. This hardened stance likely reinforced market views of Putin's continued presidency through 2026.
Putin Expresses Openness to US-Backed Peace Plan Framework
December 31, 2026 rises to 15%1%
At the CSTO summit, Putin stated that a leaked US-backed peace plan could serve as a basis for future agreements, though he maintained firm territorial demands.
Putin signs document to strengthen Russian identity in Ukraine
December 31, 2026 rises to 16%2%
Putin signed a document mandating increased efforts to promote Russian identity in annexed Ukrainian territories, demonstrating continued political control and no signs of stepping down, which maintained the market's low probability of his removal.
Release of 2026 Putin calendar highlights his continued public prominence
December 31, 2026 drops to 14%5%
The publication of a popular 2026 calendar featuring Putin in various active poses reinforced his image as a strong leader, supporting market sentiment of his ongoing presidency.
Putin visits military command post, asserts confidence in victory in Ukraine
Putin's public visit to a military command post and his confident messaging about battlefield advances reinforced his grip on power and diminished market expectations of his removal by end of 2026.
Putin watches as US-Russia peace plan leaks cause disarray among allies
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
The leaked 28-point US-Russia peace proposal created confusion among Washington, Kyiv, and European capitals, a situation Putin exploited to maintain leverage. His passive stance and control over negotiations indicated no sign of stepping down, further lowering market expectations of his removal.
Putin endorses US peace plan as basis for settlement but warns of continued fighting
December 31, 2026 dips to 15%2%
Putin indicated willingness to consider the US 28-point peace plan pending meaningful discussion, while also warning that Russia could continue military operations if negotiations fail. This stance suggested Putin's active leadership role and no sign of stepping down, influencing market sentiment downward.
Retired general calls for Putin resignation over Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, publicly called for Vladimir Putin to resign or be forced out by constitutional procedures, citing the Ukraine war as draining Russia's resources.
Putin delivers brief address at Moscow stadium amid ongoing war
On November 23, 2025, Putin gave a notably short speech to a large crowd in Moscow, reaffirming his leadership during a critical phase of the Ukraine conflict. This event underscored his continued control and presence, which likely tempered market expectations of his imminent departure.
Putin dismisses Ukraine peace plan, insists on maximalist demands
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%1%
Putin publicly rejected the US peace plan for Ukraine, emphasizing his maximalist territorial and security demands, signaling no intention to step down or compromise, which kept market confidence in his presidency stable but low.
Putin addresses Security Council on U.S. peace plan, signals continued leadership
On November 21, 2025, Putin chaired a Security Council meeting discussing the U.S.-proposed peace plan, reaffirming his leadership role and Russia's war aims. This reinforced market views that Putin would remain president through at least the end of 2026, contributing to the low probability of his early exit.
Putin says US peace plan could be basis for Ukraine peace but demands remain
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%1%
On November 21, 2025, Putin acknowledged the US peace proposal as a potential basis for settlement but insisted on key demands, showing no readiness to compromise or step down. This stance maintained market skepticism about his early departure.
Putin Backs U.S. 28-Point Peace Plan as Basis for Final Ukraine Settlement
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
Vladimir Putin cautiously welcomed a U.S.-proposed peace plan that aligned with many of Moscow's demands, demonstrating his strong diplomatic leverage and lowering the likelihood of his removal.
Putin cautiously endorses US peace plan as basis for settlement
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%2%
Putin publicly stated that the US-proposed peace plan could serve as a framework for ending the Ukraine conflict, showing diplomatic engagement without conceding key demands. This tempered market expectations of a sudden leadership change, contributing to a further decline in the probability of Putin's removal.
Kremlin states Putin does not personally use AI but officials do
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%1%
The Kremlin's statement that Putin himself does not use AI tools but officials do, alongside his call for a national AI task force, indicated ongoing active governance and no signs of stepping down, contributing to market decline in exit probability.
Putin meets Chinese Premier Li Qiang in Moscow
On November 19, Putin met with China’s Premier Li Qiang, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement and political stability, which likely contributed to the market settling at a lower probability of Putin’s exit by December 31, 2026.
Rising internal dissent and economic challenges in Russia raise questions about Putin's future
Reports highlighted growing dissatisfaction within Russia's political and military ranks and economic difficulties, fueling speculation about regime stability. However, no direct moves against Putin's presidency occurred, leading to minor market fluctuations but no significant price recovery.
Chinese Premier Li Qiang meets Putin in Moscow amid ongoing tensions
On November 18, 2025, Chinese Premier Li Qiang met with Putin in Moscow, signaling continued diplomatic support for Putin's regime. This meeting likely reinforced market perceptions of Putin's stability and reduced the probability of his removal by the end of 2026.
CNN reports rare Kremlin access showing Putin's active leadership
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
CNN's rare access inside the Kremlin and coverage of Putin's meetings reinforced his continued active role and control, reducing speculation about his imminent removal and contributing to a dip in market prices.
Kremlin Acknowledges Brief Hospitalization of Putin Amid Fresh Health Rumors
December 31, 2026 dips to 12%2%
Reports emerged detailing Putin's 'swollen and sore' hands at a public event, alongside a Kremlin acknowledgment of a brief hospitalization in Moscow following a prior two-week absence from public life.
Retired Russian General Calls for Putin's Resignation Over Ukraine War
December 31, 2026 drops to 12%8%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov publicly called for President Putin to resign or be constitutionally removed due to dissatisfaction with the Ukraine conflict, raising questions about Putin's leadership but without immediate impact on his presidency.
Putin approves sale of Citibank’s Russian operations amid Western sanctions
December 31, 2026 rises to 15%1%
On November 12, Putin authorized the sale of Citibank’s remaining Russian operations, demonstrating continued control over economic decisions despite sanctions, which did not increase market expectations of his exit, reflected in a price around 15-16%.
Putin reiterates commitment to constitutional term limits amid political challenges
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Putin emphasized maintaining the current two-term presidential limit despite political pressures, signaling no intention to extend or abruptly end his presidency. This reaffirmation contributed to a market price drop to 14% for the December 31, 2026 outcome, reflecting reduced expectations of his early departure.
Putin's swollen and sore hands spark health speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Public appearances showing Putin with visibly swollen and sore hands fueled widespread rumors about his health, raising questions about his ability to continue in office. This speculation increased uncertainty in the market about Putin's longevity as president, contributing to a decline in the probability of his remaining in office.
Retired Russian generals publicly call for Putin's resignation over Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%4%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov and other officers criticized Putin's Ukraine strategy and called for his resignation, increasing speculation about Putin's political future but without immediate effect on his presidency.
Putin publicly endorses U.S. peace plan as basis for Ukraine settlement
December 31, 2026 dips to 13%3%
On November 11, 2025, Putin cautiously welcomed a U.S. peace plan for Ukraine, indicating a potential shift toward negotiation but without signaling any intention to resign. This tempered market optimism slightly but did not increase expectations of Putin leaving office by December 31, 2026.
Kremlin denies reports of fallout between Putin and top diplomat Lavrov
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
On November 10, 2025, reports emerged of a possible rift between Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, but the Kremlin officially denied these claims. The denial likely reassured markets about Putin's grip on power, contributing to a stabilization of the market price.
Kremlin Denies Rumors of Fallout Between Vladimir Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
The Kremlin actively dismissed speculation that President Vladimir Putin had fallen out with his long-serving top diplomat, Sergei Lavrov, signaling internal stability and dampening rumors of high-level regime fractures.
Kremlin denies Putin and Lavrov fallout despite speculation
Despite reports of a rift between Putin and his top diplomat Sergei Lavrov, the Kremlin publicly denied any falling out, indicating the diplomatic tension was unconfirmed and potentially exaggerated.
Kremlin denies Putin and Lavrov fell out amid diplomatic tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
Despite rumors of a rift between Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov, the Kremlin downplayed the speculation, indicating potential internal power dynamics.
Kremlin Denies Reports of Rift Between Putin and Top Diplomat Lavrov
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%4%
Speculation about a falling out between Putin and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov circulated but was officially denied by the Kremlin. This denial reduced fears of immediate political instability, contributing to a further decline in the market price for Putin's exit by the end of 2026.
Putin's swollen and sore hands spark renewed health concerns
December 31, 2026 dips to 14%3%
New video footage showed Vladimir Putin with visibly swollen and sore hands with bulging veins, fueling renewed global speculation about his health and ability to govern. Despite Kremlin denials, this intensified uncertainty about Putin's future but did not trigger immediate market resolution.
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov absent from key Kremlin meetings amid speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%1%
Sergey Lavrov, Russia's long-serving foreign minister, was notably absent from a key Kremlin Security Council meeting and excluded from Russia's G20 delegation, sparking rumors of a fallout with Putin. The Kremlin denied these rumors, but the event highlighted possible internal political instability, affecting market perceptions of Putin's tenure.
Russian forces continue offensive near Pokrovsk amid economic pressures
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%3%
Despite economic challenges and sanctions, Putin's forces pressed advances near Pokrovsk, showing his continued command and no signs of political instability, which contributed to a decline in market probability of his removal.
Putin blames Lavrov for angering Trump administration
Putin reportedly blamed foreign minister Sergei Lavrov for angering the Trump administration during a phone call, leading to Lavrov being sent into 'disgrace' by Putin. This diplomatic fallout increased speculation about internal Kremlin tensions.
Putin orders proposals for nuclear weapons tests amid Ukraine war
Putin instructed multiple Russian agencies to prepare proposals for nuclear weapons testing, signaling a hardening of military posture and resolve to continue the conflict, which diminished market expectations of his stepping down soon.
Putin orders proposals on resuming nuclear tests in response to US actions
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
On November 5, Putin instructed Russian ministries to prepare proposals for resuming nuclear weapons tests, a direct response to US nuclear testing plans. This assertive stance indicated Putin's firm grip on power and strategic decision-making, reducing market speculation about his removal.
Putin orders proposals on preparing for nuclear weapons tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On November 5, 2025, Putin instructed various ministries to prepare proposals for nuclear weapons tests, emphasizing Russia's military strength and signaling no intention to relinquish power amid international pressure. This assertive posture likely decreased market expectations of his resignation.
Putin orders proposals for possible nuclear weapons tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
Putin instructed multiple ministries to prepare proposals for nuclear weapons testing, demonstrating a hardline posture and consolidating his control, which likely decreased market expectations of his stepping down.
Putin Instructs Agencies to Prepare for Potential Nuclear Weapons Tests
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%3%
Following US statements on nuclear testing, Putin ordered Russian ministries and intelligence services to submit proposals for preparing nuclear tests, signaling a strong military posture.
Putin orders preparations for possible nuclear weapons tests amid escalating tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 17%3%
Putin's directive to prepare for nuclear weapons tests signaled a hardening stance and an attempt to project strength amid international pressure, reinforcing his control and reducing market expectations of his imminent removal, causing a price decline.
Putin Orders Officials to Prepare for Possible Resumption of Nuclear Testing
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
In response to statements from US President Donald Trump, Putin instructed Russian ministries and intelligence agencies to submit proposals for preparing nuclear weapons tests, reinforcing his grip on state security.
Putin signs law moving Russia to year-round military draft
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%4%
Putin's signing of a law for year-round conscription indicated continued focus on military efforts and regime stability, with no indication of imminent presidential departure, contributing to a slight market decline in exit probability.
Putin awards developers of Burevestnik and Poseidon missile systems
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Putin publicly recognized missile developers, emphasizing nuclear capabilities as a strategic priority amid growing international tensions.
Putin praises new Russian nuclear weapons capabilities
December 31, 2026 dips to 16%1%
On November 4, 2025, Putin publicly praised Russia's successful testing of advanced nuclear-capable missiles, reinforcing his image as a strong leader committed to Russia's military power. This likely further diminished market expectations of his removal by the end of 2026.
Ukraine reports heavy Russian troop deployment in Donetsk amid ongoing conflict
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%2%
On October 31, 2025, Ukraine announced that Russia had deployed 170,000 troops in Donetsk, highlighting the ongoing war and Putin's commitment to military objectives. This sustained conflict under Putin's leadership diminished market expectations of his imminent exit by the end of 2026.
US cancels Trump-Putin summit after Russia's hardline Ukraine demands
The cancellation of the planned summit between Trump and Putin on October 31, 2025, following Russia's firm demands on Ukraine, indicated ongoing tensions and no sign of Putin stepping down. This event likely contributed to market doubts about a leadership change by the end of 2026.
Ukraine Increases Drone Attacks on Russian Oil Refineries, Causing Fuel Shortages
Ukraine's intensified drone strikes on Russian oil refineries led to fuel shortages and economic strain in Russia, exacerbating challenges for Putin's administration. Despite these pressures, no direct indication of Putin's removal emerged, reflected in stable market pricing.
Putin Announces Successful Test of Tsunami-Making Poseidon Nuclear Weapon
Putin announced the successful test of the nuclear-powered underwater drone Poseidon, projecting military strength and deterrence amid geopolitical tensions.
Putin holds government meeting via videoconference amid ongoing military operations
On October 29, Vladimir Putin conducted a government meeting via videoconference, reaffirming his active role in governance and military strategy, signaling no indication of stepping down or removal. This reinforced market confidence in Putin's continued presidency, contributing to price stability.
Putin Boasts of Successful Poseidon Nuclear Torpedo Test
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%1%
Putin announced the successful test of the Poseidon nuclear-propelled underwater drone, continuing aggressive nuclear saber-rattling to project authority and deter Western pressure.
Putin and Foreign Minister Lavrov show contradictory positions on Ukraine war negotiations
December 31, 2026 rises to 23%4%
Conflicting statements from Putin and Lavrov about potential understandings with US President Trump on ending the Ukraine war created uncertainty about Russia's war strategy and Putin's political stability, leading to market volatility and a peak in perceived removal probability.
Putin showcases new nuclear missile amid escalating Ukraine conflict
On October 26, 2025, Putin publicly displayed a new nuclear-powered missile and reiterated Russia's hardline stance on Ukraine, signaling no intention to concede or step down. This demonstration of strength likely reduced market expectations of Putin's imminent removal, as it underscored his resolve to maintain power.
Putin’s investment envoy continues talks with US officials amid sanctions
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
On October 26, Putin’s special envoy Kirill Dmitriev engaged in talks with US representatives despite recent sanctions on Russian oil companies, signaling Putin’s intent to maintain international economic ties and political control, which tempered market expectations of his imminent exit.
Putin appears unsteady and sways during speech, fueling health speculation
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
Vladimir Putin was observed continuously swaying during a public appearance, reigniting widespread rumors about his health, including possible neurological conditions. This increased uncertainty about his ability to continue in office but did not lead to immediate market resolution.
Putin vows Russia will not cave under US sanctions
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
On October 23, 2025, Putin publicly rejected US and Western sanctions as ineffective and warned of an overwhelming response to any military strikes, signaling his intent to maintain power and resist external pressures. This reinforced market confidence in his continued presidency, contributing to a price decline in the likelihood of his early exit.
Putin oversees large-scale nuclear forces readiness test amid rising tensions
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
On October 22, 2025, Putin directed a major test of Russia's nuclear forces, signaling his continued control and resolve amid geopolitical tensions. This demonstration of military strength reinforced perceptions of Putin's firm grip on power, reducing market expectations of his early departure by December 31, 2026.
Putin Directs Major Strategic Nuclear Forces Exercise Amid Collapsed US Summit
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
Vladimir Putin personally oversaw a massive strategic nuclear triad exercise involving land, sea, and air components, projecting military strength and control after a planned summit with US President Donald Trump fell apart.
Putin oversees nuclear forces exercise amid war tensions
On October 22, 2025, Putin inspected a military exercise of Russia's nuclear forces, signaling continued control and authority. This display of power amidst ongoing conflict reassured markets of his maintained presidency.
Putin oversees strategic nuclear forces readiness test
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
Putin directed drills of Russia's nuclear forces, demonstrating his active leadership and control over the country's strategic military assets, which likely reassured the market about his continued presidency.
Putin oversees Russian nuclear forces readiness test
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
On October 22, 2025, Putin directed drills of Russia's strategic nuclear forces, demonstrating his continued control over the military and state affairs. This event reinforced perceptions of his stable grip on power, contributing to the market's steady pricing on his presidency lasting beyond 2026.
Trump cancels planned Putin summit, imposes sanctions on Russian oil firms
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%3%
U.S. President Donald Trump canceled a planned summit with Vladimir Putin citing lack of progress in peace talks and announced new sanctions targeting Russia's largest oil companies. This indicated deteriorating diplomatic relations and reduced expectations for a near-term political transition in Russia, causing a slight market price decline for Putin's exit by December 31, 2026.
Heightened geopolitical tensions as Putin and Trump prepare for summit amid nuclear saber-rattling
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
On October 21, 2025, media discussed a potential meeting between Putin and Trump, alongside Putin's public emphasis on new nuclear weapons capabilities, increasing geopolitical tensions. This raised market speculation about Putin's political stability, temporarily boosting the probability of his exit by December 31, 2026.
Putin reiterates war aims and rejects ceasefire without Ukrainian concessions
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
On October 21, 2025, Putin and Kremlin officials stated Russia would not agree to a ceasefire until Ukraine met demands including neutrality and government change, signaling no political retreat or leadership change. This stance likely maintained market skepticism about Putin's imminent exit.
Russian government resigns amid constitutional reform proposals
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%1%
The Russian government resigned, and President Putin proposed constitutional changes to shift power dynamics, potentially allowing him to retain influence post-presidency. This event initially raised speculation about Putin's future but did not signal his immediate removal, causing a slight market price decrease for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin faces most consequential crisis of presidency as Ukraine war drags on
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
A Defense.info report detailed how the Ukraine war had become a military, economic, and strategic quagmire for Putin, marking the most precarious moment of his presidency.
Russia Conducts Successful Test of Burevestnik Nuclear-Powered Cruise Missile
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
Russia successfully tested its pioneering atomic-powered cruise missile, signaling military strength and defiance against Western pressure, which reinforced Putin's domestic stability.
Russian government resigns amid constitutional reform proposals
The Russian government resigned following President Putin's announcement of constitutional changes to shift power towards the prime minister and reshape governance, signaling attempts to maintain influence beyond his presidential term. This political restructuring suggested Putin's intent to remain central to power, reducing market expectations of his imminent departure.
Putin Plays to Trump’s Ego as U.S. Wavers on Ukraine Aid
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
Following a phone call with Putin, U.S. President Trump expressed doubts about supplying Ukraine with more powerful weapons, indicating potential shifts in international pressure on Putin. This diplomatic development slightly influenced market perceptions but did not suggest imminent regime change.
Trump meets Zelensky; no immediate plans for Putin summit
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
US President Trump's meeting with Ukraine's Zelensky and the absence of a planned summit with Putin signaled ongoing geopolitical tensions without direct engagement, maintaining Putin's position and lowering chances of his removal.
Putin plans meeting with Trump in Hungary amid ICC arrest warrant concerns
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%1%
Putin's planned meeting with Donald Trump in Budapest raised questions about his ability to travel freely due to the ICC arrest warrant and EU sanctions. Despite these legal challenges and Poland's warning about possible arrest if Putin's plane enters its airspace, the event underscored Putin's continued active role, supporting market stability.
Trump announces plan for second summit with Putin to end Ukraine war
US President Trump declared intentions for another meeting with Putin aiming to negotiate an end to the Ukraine conflict. This diplomatic engagement suggested Putin's ongoing leadership and influence, reducing market odds of his departure.
PACE votes to create dialogue platform with exiled Putin opponents; Russia opens criminal probe
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%3%
The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe initiated a platform for dialogue with exiled opponents of Putin, prompting Russia's FSB to open a criminal investigation accusing dissidents of plotting to seize power. This heightened political tensions but did not indicate imminent leadership change, causing a moderate market uptick.
Russian government resigns amid constitutional reform proposals
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
The Russian government resigned, and Putin proposed constitutional changes to shift power towards the prime minister and reshape governance, signaling a potential post-presidential role for Putin and reducing chances of his immediate departure.
Trump Warns of Supplying Long-Range Tomahawk Missiles to Ukraine if War Is Not Settled
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%2%
U.S. President Donald Trump stated he might supply Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles if the conflict is not resolved, briefly raising geopolitical tensions and causing a minor upward fluctuation in the market.
Retired Russian General Publicly Calls for Putin's Resignation
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%3%
Retired Colonel-General Leonid Ivashov, head of the All-Russian Officers Assembly, publicly demanded that Vladimir Putin resign or be constitutionally removed due to the ongoing Ukraine conflict. This rare open dissent from a high-ranking military figure increased market speculation about Putin's political stability, causing a price rise in the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin announces upcoming introduction of new weapons amid military tensions
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
Putin's announcement of new strategic weapons and military footage release reinforced his image as a strong leader committed to Russia's military capabilities, reducing market expectations of his imminent departure.
Putin holds press conference in Dushanbe, affirming leadership role
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
Putin held a press conference on October 10, 2025, in Dushanbe, discussing bilateral relations and regional cooperation. His public engagement and absence of resignation signals maintained market confidence in his presidency continuing through 2026.
Putin visits Tajikistan despite ICC arrest warrant
On October 9, 2025, Vladimir Putin traveled to Tajikistan for a Russia-Central Asia summit despite an active International Criminal Court arrest warrant. Tajikistan, a Rome Statute member, failed to arrest him, drawing international criticism but not affecting Putin's presidential status, thus having limited impact on the market.
Putin attends Russia-Central Asia summit in Tajikistan despite ICC arrest warrant
On October 9, 2025, Vladimir Putin traveled to Tajikistan for a regional summit despite an outstanding International Criminal Court arrest warrant. Tajikistan's failure to arrest him highlighted the limits of international legal pressure but did not affect Putin's hold on power, keeping market prices steady.
Putin turns 73, continues active presidential duties
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
On October 7, 2025, Putin celebrated his 73rd birthday while continuing to chair Security Council meetings and engage in official duties, signaling no intention to step down and maintaining market confidence in his presidency.
Putin claims Russian forces captured nearly 5,000 sq km in Ukraine in 2025
Putin's announcement of territorial gains in Ukraine reinforced his control and strategic initiative, bolstering perceptions of his grip on power and reducing immediate expectations of his removal. This contributed to a stable market price around 18%.
Putin Spends Subdued 73rd Birthday at Work
Putin marked his 73rd birthday by continuing official duties and engaging with foreign leaders, demonstrating ongoing active leadership and no signs of stepping down, which maintained market skepticism about his near-term departure.
Putin announces Russian forces captured nearly 5,000 sq km in Ukraine in 2025
Putin's statement about territorial gains in Ukraine demonstrated his ongoing command and control over military operations, reinforcing perceptions of his stable hold on power and contributing to market confidence in his presidency lasting through 2026.
Putin Celebrates 73rd Birthday Amid Speculation on Succession
Putin's 73rd birthday highlighted his longevity in power and absence of a clear successor, reinforcing market views that he remains firmly in control despite his age, contributing to stable but low probabilities of his early exit.
Putin highlights historic significance of new nuclear missile systems
On November 4, 2025, Putin praised the development of nuclear-powered cruise missiles as historically significant for Russia, signaling his continued leadership and resolve amid ongoing conflict. This reinforced perceptions of his strong grip on power, contributing to market stability.
Putin warns US Tomahawk missile supply to Ukraine would destroy relations
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
Putin warned that supplying long-range Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine would escalate tensions and damage Russia-US relations, signaling his continued active leadership in foreign policy and military matters, supporting market confidence in his presidency.
Putin Announces Constitutional Changes for Future Referendum
Putin announced proposed constitutional changes to be placed before the people in a future referendum, which may have been a response to governance challenges and internal dissent.
Putin Declares He Is No Tsar and Was Elected by the Russian People
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Speaking at the Valdai Discussion Club, Vladimir Putin rejected the 'tsar' label, emphasizing his constitutional mandate and electoral support, reinforcing his political legitimacy.
Putin Rejects 'Tsar' Label at Valdai Conference, Emphasizes Elected Term
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
During the Valdai Discussion Club meeting in Sochi, Putin rejected comparisons to historical emperors, asserting his status as an elected president serving a defined term, which reinforced his political narrative.
Putin asserts he is not a tsar, emphasizing elected presidency
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%2%
At the Valdai Discussion Club, Putin stated he is an elected president serving a term, rejecting autocratic labels. This reinforced market confidence in his continued presidency, contributing to a price rise for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Putin denies being a tsar, emphasizes elected presidency
On October 2, 2025, Putin publicly stated he is not a tsar but an elected president serving a term, countering autocracy accusations and reinforcing his legitimacy, which helped maintain market stability regarding his tenure.
Putin states he is not a tsar but an elected president with a fixed term
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%1%
At the Valdai Discussion Club, Putin emphasized he was elected by the people for a certain term and denied being an autocrat or tsar, signaling his intent to remain in office and countering narratives of imminent removal. This likely supported market confidence in his continued presidency.
Putin Orders Highest Fall Conscription Target in Nine Years
December 31, 2026 rises to 19%1%
Putin signed a decree authorizing the conscription of 135,000 Russian citizens for the Fall 2025 cycle, demonstrating his ongoing commitment to maintaining military readiness and state control.
Putin ally Dmitry Kozak resigns as Kremlin Deputy Chief of Staff
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Dmitry Kozak, a longtime close collaborator of Putin who had privately opposed the Ukraine invasion, resigned from his deputy chief of staff role. This event suggested possible cracks within Putin's inner circle, briefly increasing market speculation about Putin's potential removal.
Meduza reports on fall of 'Putin's point man' Dmitry Kozak
Dmitry Kozak, the only senior Russian official believed to have opposed the war against Ukraine, resigned as Deputy Chief of Staff. His departure was relatively mild and did not indicate any threat to Putin's presidency.
Putin Announces Russia Will Adhere to New START Nuclear Limits for One More Year
President Vladimir Putin announced that Russia would voluntarily stick to the strategic nuclear warhead limits of the New START treaty for an additional year after its expiration in February 2026, signaling a calculated diplomatic posture.
Putin commits to adhering to nuclear arms limits for one more year
Putin's announcement to abide by the New START treaty for an additional year suggested a desire for stability and continuity in international relations, reducing speculation about abrupt political upheaval.
Putin Announces Russia Will Stick to Nuclear Arms Limits for One More Year
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
Putin declared Russia would maintain the New START nuclear arms treaty for another year, signaling a desire for stability amid ongoing conflict. This statement reinforced Putin's control and strategic positioning, slightly reducing market expectations of his early exit.
Putin Commits to Extending Russia's Nuclear Arms Limits for One More Year
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%2%
Putin announced Russia would stick to nuclear arms limits for another year, signaling a continued strategic posture and stability in his leadership approach, which likely reassured markets about regime continuity.
Putin Declares Russia Will Adhere to Nuclear Arms Limits for One More Year
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Putin announced that Russia will continue to abide by the New START treaty limits for a year after its February 2026 expiration, projecting stability and long-term strategic planning.
Russian General Alexander Lapin Dismissed From Military Service
Putin formalized Lapin's dismissal, a move that may reflect broader military leadership changes and further signals instability within the Russian military establishment.
Putin orders stepped-up attacks on Ukraine, confident Trump won’t intervene
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%2%
Putin decided to escalate military operations in Ukraine, believing US President Trump would not significantly support Kyiv. This military escalation indicated Putin's continued hold on power and strategic control, dampening market speculation about his removal.
Kremlin confirms resignation of Dmitry Kozak, Putin aide critical of Ukraine war
Dmitri N. Kozak, a long-serving aide to Vladimir Putin who had expressed opposition to the Ukraine invasion, resigned from his position. This was one of the few known dissenting voices within Putin's inner circle, potentially signaling internal tensions but not affecting Putin's presidency.
Longtime Putin aide Dmitry Kozak resigns amid Ukraine war dissent
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%1%
Dmitry Kozak, a senior Kremlin aide who opposed the war in Ukraine, resigned, highlighting internal Kremlin tensions. This event slightly increased uncertainty about Putin's position but did not lead to immediate expectations of his removal, reflected in stable market prices around 19-20%.
Putin orders succession plan emphasizing veterans of Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Putin stated that the next generation of Russian leadership must be veterans of the Ukraine war, signaling a managed transition but no immediate exit, which maintained market skepticism about his near-term departure.
Longtime Putin aide Dmitri N. Kozak resigns after opposing Ukraine war
Kozak, a trusted aide who privately believed the Ukraine invasion was a mistake, resigned his post, signaling growing internal dissent within Putin's inner circle about the war strategy.
Putin Aide Dmitri Kozak Resigns Over Ukraine War Opposition
Kozak, a long-serving aide who believed the Ukraine invasion was a mistake, resigned, signaling growing dissent within Putin's inner circle and raising concerns about potential instability in the Kremlin.
Putin Orders Succession Plan Sourcing Next Leaders from Ukraine War Veterans
President Putin announced that the next generation of Russia's political leadership must be veterans of the Ukraine war, entrenching hard-line nationalism and securing a loyal future political class.
Dmitry Kozak Resigns as Kremlin Deputy Chief of Staff
Dmitry Kozak, a long-serving aide to President Putin who was critical of the invasion of Ukraine, resigned from his post. This departure removed a potential internal dissenting voice, further consolidating Putin's control.
Putin Ally Dmitry Kozak Resigns as Kremlin Deputy Chief of Staff
December 31, 2026 rises to 20%1%
Dmitry Kozak, a longtime close associate of Putin who had privately opposed the Ukraine invasion, resigned from his deputy chief of staff position. This event introduced some uncertainty about Putin's inner circle stability, briefly impacting market perceptions of Putin's hold on power.
Putin Removes Kozak, Deputy Head of Presidential Administration
Dmitry Kozak, a longtime aide to Putin who reportedly opposed the Ukraine invasion, resigned from his position. This was one of the few known internal dissenters in Putin's circle, signaling potential instability within the Kremlin leadership.
Putin publicly muses on immortality and succession challenges
Putin's comments on prolonging life and the lack of a hand-picked successor highlighted the regime's succession dilemma, increasing market uncertainty about his potential departure timing.
Putin signals determination to dictate Ukraine war terms amid military escalation
Putin held a lengthy news conference emphasizing Russia's military upper hand and escalated airstrikes in Ukraine, reinforcing his intent to continue the conflict on his terms. This assertive stance reduced market expectations of his imminent removal, as he appeared firmly in control.
Putin delivers message to Ukraine, Europe and Trump amid intensified airstrikes
Putin reaffirmed Russia's aggressive stance in Ukraine, demonstrating continued commitment to the war effort despite mounting criticism and potential internal dissent.
Experts affirm Putin's position secure despite coup speculation
Analyses reiterated that the only plausible way for Putin to leave office would be a coup, which remains highly unlikely due to his regime's strong control. This reinforced market confidence in Putin's continued presidency, maintaining low probability of removal.
Trump Considers Legislative Pressure to Force Putin Back to Negotiations
Reports emerged that Trump had a bill ready to pressure Putin to return to peace talks, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but no immediate change in Putin’s status. This maintained market skepticism about Putin’s removal within the timeframe.
Plans for Putin-Zelensky meeting underway after Trump summit
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Following the Trump-Putin summit, the White House announced plans for a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelensky, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts but no immediate change in Putin's presidency, maintaining market skepticism.
White House announces plans for Putin-Zelensky meeting following Trump talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
Following Trump’s meetings with Putin and Zelensky, plans for a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelensky were announced, indicating ongoing diplomatic engagement but no indication of Putin stepping down, keeping market probabilities low.
Trump Pivots on Need for Immediate Ukraine Ceasefire After Meeting Putin
Following his face-to-face talks with Putin, Trump reversed his stance, aligning with Russia's preference to bypass an immediate ceasefire in favor of direct, lengthy peace negotiations.
Analysis: Trump summit in Alaska grants Putin more time to continue Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
The Alaska summit between Trump and Putin was widely seen as giving Putin additional time to sustain his war efforts, reducing market expectations of his near-term removal. This diplomatic event contributed to the market's continued decline in the probability of Putin leaving office by the end of 2026.
Putin meets Trump in Alaska for high-stakes summit on Ukraine
Putin met with US President Donald Trump in Alaska to discuss the Ukraine war. Despite hopes, no ceasefire or peace deal was reached, and Putin's position remained secure, leading to no increase in market probability of his removal.
Putin’s Health Concerns Raised After Limping During Meeting with Trump
Vladimir Putin was observed limping and showing signs of physical distress during a meeting with Donald Trump in Alaska, fueling speculation about his health. Despite these concerns, no official indication of resignation or removal emerged, and the market remained cautious.
Trump-Putin summit in Alaska ends without peace deal or Putin concessions
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
The summit concluded with no agreement to end the war or pressure on Putin to step down, reinforcing Putin's position and leading to a market reassessment of the likelihood of his early departure.
Trump and Putin Hold Alaska Summit
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
The Alaska summit with Trump, which failed to achieve a ceasefire, created renewed uncertainty about Russia's war strategy and Putin's leadership, influencing market sentiment.
Trump and Putin Meet in Alaska Without Reaching Ukraine Peace Deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
The summit between Trump and Putin ended without a ceasefire or peace agreement on Ukraine, with Putin maintaining his position on territorial demands. The lack of breakthrough reinforced perceptions of Putin’s continued control, slightly lowering the market’s probability of his removal.
Putin and Trump meet in Alaska for summit on Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
The high-profile summit between Putin and Trump aimed at negotiating an end to the Ukraine war ended without a ceasefire deal, demonstrating Putin's continued hold on power and reducing market expectations of his early exit.
Trump-Putin Alaska Summit Ends Without Ceasefire Deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
The highly anticipated summit in Anchorage, Alaska, ended without a concrete ceasefire agreement, but the meeting's optics treated Putin as an equal, stabilizing his domestic standing.
Trump-Putin Alaska Summit Concludes Without Ceasefire Deal
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
The highly anticipated bilateral summit in Anchorage, Alaska, ended with no concrete agreement or ceasefire. However, the warm reception and red-carpet treatment of Putin on US soil was widely viewed as a major political and reputational victory for the Russian leader, reinforcing his stability.
Trump and Putin agree to meet amid ongoing Ukraine conflict
Reports on August 6 indicated an upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin, suggesting diplomatic engagement but no immediate threat to Putin's presidency, thus having minimal impact on market expectations for his removal.
Trump announces planned summit with Putin in Alaska on August 15
On August 6, Trump announced a planned meeting with Putin in Alaska, signaling ongoing diplomatic engagement rather than a move toward Putin's removal. This maintained market expectations that Putin would remain in power through the near term.
No change in Putin's position despite US sanctions and diplomatic pressure
Despite ongoing US sanctions and diplomatic efforts, Putin remained firmly in power with no announcements of resignation or removal, maintaining market skepticism about his departure within the timeframe.
Kremlin confirms upcoming Putin-Trump meeting amid stalled peace talks
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
On August 6, Kremlin officials announced an agreed meeting between Putin and Trump, raising hopes for diplomatic progress but no indication of Putin stepping down. This maintained the market's low probability for Putin's exit by the end of 2026.
Putin unlikely to yield to US sanctions ultimatum, aims to capture Ukrainian regions
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
On August 5, sources close to the Kremlin indicated Putin's determination to continue military objectives despite looming US sanctions, signaling no intention to resign or step down, which kept market probabilities for his exit low.
Putin doubts effectiveness of Trump's sanctions ultimatum
December 31, 2026 dips to 18%1%
On August 5, sources reported Putin's skepticism about the potency of US sanctions threats, indicating his resolve to continue the war and maintain power, which contributed to market confidence in his staying in office.
Putin signals no change in Russia's stance on Ukraine despite sanctions deadline
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%2%
Putin stated that Moscow hopes for future peace talks but affirmed that the momentum of the war was in Russia's favor, indicating no intention to step down or change course. This reinforced market expectations that Putin would remain president through 2026.
Putin signals no change in Russia's stance on Ukraine despite Trump deadline
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
Putin stated that Moscow hoped for more peace talks but that the momentum of the war was in Russia's favor, indicating no shift in policy and reducing market expectations of his early removal.
Putin claims Russian army advancing along entire line of contact in Ukraine
On August 1, Putin publicly asserted military progress in Ukraine, reflecting his ongoing leadership and control over Russian military strategy. This public engagement indicated no change in his presidential status, maintaining market stability.
Putin signs law criminalizing access to 'extremist' online content
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On July 31, Putin signed amendments introducing misdemeanor penalties for intentionally searching banned online materials, demonstrating continued tightening of control and no sign of political weakening, which likely lowered market chances of his removal.
Unverified Reports of Coup Planning Within Russia’s General Staff Emerge
Reports surfaced alleging that some officers in Russia's General Staff were considering a coup due to fears of repression if the Ukraine war ends unfavorably. These rumors increased uncertainty but lacked confirmation, limiting market impact.
President Trump issues ultimatum to Putin to end Ukraine war within 10-12 days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
President Trump publicly demanded that Putin cease hostilities in Ukraine within a short deadline, increasing diplomatic pressure on Russia. However, Putin's response and continued military actions suggested no immediate change in leadership, leading to market uncertainty and a slight price decline.
Trump sets August 8 deadline for Putin to engage in peace talks or face sanctions
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
US President Donald Trump announced a deadline for Putin to begin meaningful negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, increasing pressure on Putin but with no immediate sign of compliance, leading to a slight market decline in Putin's early exit probability.
Trump Shortens Ukraine Ceasefire Ultimatum for Putin to 10-12 Days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
U.S. President Donald Trump dramatically shortened his previous 50-day deadline for Russia to agree to a ceasefire to just 10 to 12 days, threatening severe secondary tariffs and sanctions.
Trump announces new peace deadline for Putin: 10-12 days to negotiate Ukraine ceasefire
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%3%
President Trump announced a new deadline for Putin to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine, reducing his previous 50-day deadline by 38 days. This intensified pressure on Putin and raised concerns about his ability to maintain control.
Trump Cuts 50-Day Deadline for Putin to Reach Ukraine Peace Deal in Half
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
President Donald Trump reduced the deadline for Putin to reach a peace deal on Ukraine from 50 days to less than two weeks, signaling increased pressure on Putin. This political pressure did not translate into expectations of Putin leaving office, reflected in stable market prices.
Donald Trump shortens deadline for Putin to stop Ukraine war killings
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On July 28, US President Donald Trump gave Putin a 10-12 day deadline to halt killings in Ukraine, increasing international pressure on Putin. Despite this, Putin remained defiant, which maintained market skepticism about any imminent change in his presidency.
Trump shortens ultimatum for Putin to negotiate peace to 10-12 days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On July 28, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a reduced deadline for Putin to agree to peace negotiations, reflecting increased international pressure on Putin. Despite this, no indication emerged that Putin would step down, and the market price remained stable or slightly declined.
Trump Shortens Russia's Peace Deal Deadline to 10 to 12 Days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
US President Donald Trump accelerated his ultimatum to Russia, shortening the deadline to agree to a ceasefire from 50 days to just 10 to 12 days under threat of severe tariffs. This escalation increased geopolitical tension but ultimately highlighted Putin's refusal to back down under Western pressure.
Trump shortens deadline for Putin to end Ukraine war
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
Trump publicly reduced the deadline for Putin to reach a peace deal in Ukraine to 10-12 days, signaling increased pressure but no indication of Putin stepping down, which kept market confidence low.
Putin attends funeral of Supreme Court Chief Justice Irina Podnosova
Putin's public attendance at the funeral of a top judicial figure on July 24 demonstrated his continued active role in state affairs, signaling no signs of stepping down or incapacitation, which supported market confidence in his presidency.
Expert analysis confirms coup against Putin remains highly unlikely
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
Security experts reiterated that Putin's regime is heavily 'coup-proofed' with loyal security forces, making any forced removal improbable. This assessment dampened market speculation about an early exit, supporting the downward price trend for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
Kremlin states Putin ready for Ukraine peace talks but prioritizes goals
On July 20, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced Putin's willingness to discuss peace in Ukraine while emphasizing Russia's main objectives. This reinforced Putin's control and strategic focus, reducing market expectations of his early exit.
Russian Military Faces Heavy Casualties and Economic Strain
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%1%
Reports indicated that Russian forces suffered heavy casualties and the economy was under strain, with reluctance from Putin to mobilize reserves. This military and economic pressure contributed to market uncertainty about Putin’s political future but did not signal immediate removal.
Zelenskyy appoints Yulia Svyrydenko as new prime minister for war-weary Ukraine
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy appointed Yulia Svyrydenko as Ukraine's new prime minister following Shmyhal's resignation. This leadership change in Ukraine may have affected market perceptions of stability and the ongoing conflict with Russia.
Putin and Trump hold joint appearance discussing Ukraine ceasefire
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held a joint appearance in Alaska discussing a ceasefire in Ukraine, but no agreement was reached. This diplomatic failure may have contributed to market volatility.
Russian drone attack on Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%2%
A Russian drone attack hit Kharkiv, damaging infrastructure and killing civilians. This military escalation increased instability and raised concerns about Putin's control over the war effort.
Putin unfazed by Trump's sanctions threats, vows to continue Ukraine offensive
On July 15, sources close to the Kremlin reported Putin's determination to continue the war in Ukraine despite threats of tougher sanctions from the US. This reinforced expectations that Putin would remain in power to pursue his military objectives, contributing to stable market pricing.
Ukrainian PM Denys Shmyhal resigns amid major government reshuffle
Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal tendered his resignation as part of a major government reshuffle, leading to a cabinet dissolution. This political change in Ukraine may have influenced market sentiment regarding the stability of the Ukraine-Russia relationship.
Putin vows to continue Ukraine war despite Western sanctions threats
December 31, 2026 rises to 21%1%
On July 15, sources close to the Kremlin reported Putin's determination to keep fighting in Ukraine until his terms for peace are met, showing no sign of stepping down. This reinforced market sentiment that Putin would remain in power, stabilizing the price around 20-21%.
Putin signals intent to continue Ukraine war until goals met
Putin declared his intention to keep fighting in Ukraine until Russia's objectives are achieved, showing no signs of stepping down. This reinforced market skepticism about his imminent removal, contributing to a price decline.
Putin signals no change in war stance despite Trump sanctions threat
Putin stated Russia's economy and military could withstand further Western sanctions and intended to continue fighting in Ukraine, signaling no intention to resign or change course, which dampened market optimism about his departure.
Putin vows to continue fighting in Ukraine despite Trump's threats
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
Putin publicly rejected US President Trump's sanctions threats and affirmed his commitment to the Ukraine conflict, signaling regime stability and no indication of stepping down, which likely suppressed market expectations of his removal.
Ukraine's Prime Minister resigns amid major government reshuffle
December 31, 2026 rises to 22%2%
While not directly related to Putin's presidency, the resignation of Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal on July 15 amid wartime reshuffling reflected ongoing regional instability, indirectly influencing perceptions of Putin's regime stability and the market's outlook.
Trump threatens severe tariffs on Russia if no Ukraine ceasefire in 50 days
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
US President Donald Trump announced a 50-day deadline for Putin to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine, threatening very severe secondary tariffs starting at 100%. This increased international pressure on Putin but did not lead to any immediate change in his presidency, maintaining market skepticism.
Putin Announces Leadership Term Ends in 2030
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
Vladimir Putin stated his leadership term would end in 2030, signaling potential resignation and affecting market confidence in his continued presidency.
Trump claims Putin wanted peace in Ukraine, a reversal of stance
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
President Trump stated that Putin had previously expressed interest in peace in Ukraine, a significant shift from his earlier criticism of Putin. This created uncertainty about Putin's intentions and stability.
Trump sharply criticizes Putin over Ukraine war
US President Donald Trump increased his criticism of Vladimir Putin following unsuccessful calls to end the war in Ukraine, signaling continued US pressure but no immediate political change in Russia. This maintained market skepticism about Putin's removal.
Starovoyt Found Dead After Putin's Dismissal
Starovoyt died in apparent suicide hours after being fired, confirming the abrupt nature of the dismissal and adding to concerns about political instability within Russia.
Putin Fires Transport Minister Roman Starovoyt
Putin dismissed Starovoyt without stated reason, a move that raised questions about internal Kremlin dynamics and Putin's leadership stability, contributing to market uncertainty.
US Senators Propose Sanctions Targeting Russia’s Energy Sector
December 31, 2026 dips to 21%2%
US senators Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal proposed the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, aiming to impose broad tariffs and secondary sanctions on Russia’s energy sector to increase economic pressure on Putin’s regime. This heightened economic pressure was expected to challenge Putin’s hold on power but did not immediately affect his presidency.
Former Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit fired and found dead
Putin removed Roman Starovoit from his ministerial post on July 7; hours later, Starovoit was found dead, reportedly by suicide. This event underscored elite instability but did not indicate any change in Putin's presidency, contributing to market uncertainty.
Russian transport minister dismissed by Putin found dead
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
Roman Starovoit, dismissed by Putin earlier that day, was found dead from an apparent self-inflicted gunshot wound. This event highlighted internal turmoil but did not indicate any change in Putin's position, leading to a slight market reaction.
Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit Found Dead Hours After Being Fired by Putin
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
Russian Transport Minister Roman Starovoit was found dead from an apparent suicide shortly after being dismissed by President Vladimir Putin, signaling tightening control and high stakes within the Kremlin elite.
Roman Starovoit found dead hours after dismissal
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%2%
Roman Starovoit was found dead in an apparent suicide shortly after being fired by Putin. This event raised concerns about instability within the Russian government but did not directly implicate Putin's position, resulting in a slight market decline.
US proposes sanctions package targeting Russia's energy sector
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
The US proposed a sanctions package under the Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, aiming to broadly target Russia's energy sector and impose secondary sanctions. This increased pressure on Russia's economy but did not directly threaten Putin's presidency, contributing to a slight market dip.
Putin removes Roman Starovoit from Transport Minister post
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
On July 7, 2025, Vladimir Putin dismissed Roman Starovoit from his position as Minister of Transport, signaling internal government reshuffles but not indicating any threat to Putin's presidency. This event had limited impact on the market's outlook for Putin's removal.
Detention of Russian elite figures signals Kremlin tightening control
December 31, 2026 dips to 19%1%
On July 7, two major Russian figures, Konstantin Strukov and Viktor Strigunov, were detained on corruption charges, indicating a crackdown within the elite. This suggested internal instability but no direct threat to Putin's presidency, contributing to market uncertainty and a slight price decline.
Roman Starovoit dismissed as Russian Transport Minister by Putin
December 31, 2026 dips to 22%1%
President Vladimir Putin dismissed Roman Starovoit as Minister of Transport, a decision confirmed by Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov. This event reflected internal government changes but did not indicate any threat to Putin's presidency, causing minor market impact.
Putin participates in BRICS summit via videolink from Moscow
Putin's active participation in the BRICS summit signaled his continued control and leadership, reinforcing market confidence in his presidency and contributing to the initial market price of 23%.
Putin attends pro-war 'Everything for Victory' forum amid recruitment push
December 31, 2026 drops to 18%5%
On July 6, Putin attended a major pro-Kremlin event aimed at boosting volunteer recruitment for the war effort, signaling his intent to continue the conflict and maintain power. This reinforced market expectations that Putin would remain president, contributing to a price drop from 23% to 18% for his departure by December 31, 2026.
Putin pushes for increased volunteer recruitment amid waning domestic support
On July 6, Putin attended a forum aimed at boosting volunteer recruitment, signaling concerns about domestic support for the war effort. This indicated Putin's intent to maintain his grip on power and continue the conflict, which likely kept market confidence in his presidency stable.
Trump signals possible meeting with Putin amid Ukraine war talks
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
Reports emerged that US President Donald Trump might meet Russian President Vladimir Putin soon to discuss Ukraine peace efforts, raising some market speculation about political shifts but no direct indication of Putin leaving office.
Putin attends pro-Kremlin 'Everything for Victory' forum amid elite detentions
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
On July 6, Putin attended a major pro-Kremlin forum promoting victory over Ukraine, coinciding with the Kremlin's crackdown on elites, including detentions of major business and security figures. This reinforced Putin's control but highlighted internal tensions, slightly affecting market confidence in his continued presidency.
Putin attends 'Everything for Victory' forum amid efforts to boost volunteer recruitment
December 31, 2026 dips to 20%3%
On July 6, Putin participated in a pro-war forum aimed at increasing volunteer recruitment, signaling his intent to maintain power and continue the war effort despite domestic challenges. This reinforced market skepticism about his imminent departure, contributing to a price drop from 23% to 20% for the December 31, 2026 outcome.
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