Russia has not conducted a nuclear explosion test since 1990, despite President Putin's November 2025 order directing officials to prepare proposals for potential resumption in response to perceived U.S. intentions. Late 2025 flights of the nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile and Poseidon torpedo were confirmed as non-nuclear by the Kremlin. The New START treaty's February 2026 expiration spurred U.S.-Russia talks on interim arms limits, tempering escalation signals. With no major diplomatic or military developments in the past 30 days and Novaya Zemlya test site at sustained readiness, trader consensus reflects low near-term probability amid ongoing Ukraine conflict and global nonproliferation pressures, though late-breaking U.S. policy shifts could alter dynamics.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$1,342,606 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
30 tháng 6, 2026
2%
Ngày 30 tháng 9 năm 2026
9%
31 tháng 12, 2026
12%
$1,342,606 KL.
30 tháng 6, 2026
$4,474 KL.
2%
Ngày 30 tháng 9 năm 2026
$1,400 KL.
9%
31 tháng 12, 2026
$12,159 KL.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has not conducted a nuclear explosion test since 1990, despite President Putin's November 2025 order directing officials to prepare proposals for potential resumption in response to perceived U.S. intentions. Late 2025 flights of the nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile and Poseidon torpedo were confirmed as non-nuclear by the Kremlin. The New START treaty's February 2026 expiration spurred U.S.-Russia talks on interim arms limits, tempering escalation signals. With no major diplomatic or military developments in the past 30 days and Novaya Zemlya test site at sustained readiness, trader consensus reflects low near-term probability amid ongoing Ukraine conflict and global nonproliferation pressures, though late-breaking U.S. policy shifts could alter dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,342,606Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Russia has not conducted a nuclear explosion test since 1990, despite President Putin's November 2025 order directing officials to prepare proposals for potential resumption in response to perceived U.S. intentions. Late 2025 flights of the nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile and Poseidon torpedo were confirmed as non-nuclear by the Kremlin. The New START treaty's February 2026 expiration spurred U.S.-Russia talks on interim arms limits, tempering escalation signals. With no major diplomatic or military developments in the past 30 days and Novaya Zemlya test site at sustained readiness, trader consensus reflects low near-term probability amid ongoing Ukraine conflict and global nonproliferation pressures, though late-breaking U.S. policy shifts could alter dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$1,342,606Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia has not conducted a nuclear explosion test since 1990, despite President Putin's November 2025 order directing officials to prepare proposals for potential resumption in response to perceived U.S. intentions. Late 2025 flights of the nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile and Poseidon torpedo were confirmed as non-nuclear by the Kremlin. The New START treaty's February 2026 expiration spurred U.S.-Russia talks on interim arms limits, tempering escalation signals. With no major diplomatic or military developments in the past 30 days and Novaya Zemlya test site at sustained readiness, trader consensus reflects low near-term probability amid ongoing Ukraine conflict and global nonproliferation pressures, though late-breaking U.S. policy shifts could alter dynamics.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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