Putin maintains firm control through loyal security services, expanded emergency powers, and consolidation of United Russia as the dominant pro-war political force, with no verified coordinated elite or military plot advancing in 2026. Despite documented strains—including declining approval ratings in state polls, economic pressures from Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure, fuel shortages, and recruitment shortfalls—the regime has responded with heightened internal surveillance, arrests of suspected agents, and tightened National Guard deployments without triggering open factional revolt. European intelligence reports from earlier in the year flagged potential concerns around figures like Sergei Shoigu but produced no subsequent actions, while analysts emphasize the security apparatus's effectiveness in suppressing dissent. Traders price the low probability of an attempt accordingly, reflecting the high barriers posed by entrenched elite incentives and repression.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật6% khả năng
$128,143 KL.
$128,143 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
6% khả năng
$128,143 KL.
$128,143 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains firm control through loyal security services, expanded emergency powers, and consolidation of United Russia as the dominant pro-war political force, with no verified coordinated elite or military plot advancing in 2026. Despite documented strains—including declining approval ratings in state polls, economic pressures from Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure, fuel shortages, and recruitment shortfalls—the regime has responded with heightened internal surveillance, arrests of suspected agents, and tightened National Guard deployments without triggering open factional revolt. European intelligence reports from earlier in the year flagged potential concerns around figures like Sergei Shoigu but produced no subsequent actions, while analysts emphasize the security apparatus's effectiveness in suppressing dissent. Traders price the low probability of an attempt accordingly, reflecting the high barriers posed by entrenched elite incentives and repression.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Khối lượng
$128,143Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Putin maintains firm control through loyal security services, expanded emergency powers, and consolidation of United Russia as the dominant pro-war political force, with no verified coordinated elite or military plot advancing in 2026. Despite documented strains—including declining approval ratings in state polls, economic pressures from Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure, fuel shortages, and recruitment shortfalls—the regime has responded with heightened internal surveillance, arrests of suspected agents, and tightened National Guard deployments without triggering open factional revolt. European intelligence reports from earlier in the year flagged potential concerns around figures like Sergei Shoigu but produced no subsequent actions, while analysts emphasize the security apparatus's effectiveness in suppressing dissent. Traders price the low probability of an attempt accordingly, reflecting the high barriers posed by entrenched elite incentives and repression.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$128,143Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Putin maintains firm control through loyal security services, expanded emergency powers, and consolidation of United Russia as the dominant pro-war political force, with no verified coordinated elite or military plot advancing in 2026. Despite documented strains—including declining approval ratings in state polls, economic pressures from Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure, fuel shortages, and recruitment shortfalls—the regime has responded with heightened internal surveillance, arrests of suspected agents, and tightened National Guard deployments without triggering open factional revolt. European intelligence reports from earlier in the year flagged potential concerns around figures like Sergei Shoigu but produced no subsequent actions, while analysts emphasize the security apparatus's effectiveness in suppressing dissent. Traders price the low probability of an attempt accordingly, reflecting the high barriers posed by entrenched elite incentives and repression.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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