Recent US diplomatic efforts, including envoys' early September visits to Moscow and Kyiv, have revived signals of possible trilateral talks in October while Putin acknowledged a chance for settlement and Zelenskyy expressed conditional openness to direct engagement if it yields concrete advances and security guarantees. However, the Kremlin continues to reject bilateral meetings outside Moscow or without prior expert-level agreements, dismissing Zelenskyy's G20 proposal and accusing Kyiv of undermining negotiations. Ongoing battlefield dynamics, Russian parliamentary elections, and Ukrainian long-range strikes reinforce these positions, with traders viewing any handshake as dependent on resolution of territorial and security disputes that remain unresolved despite mediation.