Russia's ongoing military commitment to its campaign in Ukraine, now in its fifth year as of early 2026, continues to anchor trader expectations against a new conventional invasion elsewhere this year. Prolonged resource strains, including manpower shortages and equipment demands from that theater, have limited Moscow's capacity for additional large-scale operations, while diplomatic signals around potential ceasefires and postwar security arrangements have further reduced near-term escalation risks. Recent assessments highlight a shift toward hybrid measures rather than fresh kinetic advances against neighboring states, consistent with the 91.5% implied probability on "No." No verified military movements or official statements in the past month indicate preparations targeting additional countries within the resolution window.