Russia’s sustained military operations in Ukraine, including recent drone and missile strikes on Ukrainian cities and incremental advances in areas such as Sumy Oblast and near Pokrovsk through mid-2026, continue to consume substantial personnel, equipment, and industrial resources. High casualty rates and recruitment shortfalls have left Russian forces focused on consolidating gains in the existing theater rather than opening additional fronts. Analyses from defense assessments note that reconstitution of capabilities for broader offensive actions would require several years, aligning with the current absence of verified preparations or movements toward other neighbors. Trader consensus reflected in the 91.5% probability for “No” incorporates these constraints alongside the lack of new escalatory signals in the first seven months of the year.