Russia’s ongoing military operations in Ukraine continue to consume substantial resources amid intensified Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure and command targets in September 2026. Recent Russian statements, including Foreign Minister Lavrov’s warnings against Western troop deployments and threats directed at Poland, reflect efforts to deter escalation rather than signal preparations for new territorial advances. A Russian drone incursion into Lithuanian airspace in mid-September and limited cross-border incidents have prompted NATO vigilance but no indications of force concentrations or planning for invasions of additional states. Traders assign the “No” outcome a 94.5% implied probability, consistent with Russia’s stretched logistics, high casualties, and the prohibitive risks of opening a second front against NATO-backed neighbors before year-end.