US-Mexico security cooperation on drug trafficking and border enforcement has continued under the Trump administration despite periodic diplomatic frictions, including disputes over visa actions and incidents involving Mexican nationals in US custody. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly ruled out any US military presence on Mexican soil, while bilateral efforts have focused on intelligence sharing, Mexican-led operations against cartels designated as foreign terrorist organizations, and reduced migrant crossings. US military activity remains confined to its own territory and maritime interdictions, with congressional measures like the No Unauthorized War in Mexico Act reinforcing institutional limits on escalation. Trader consensus at 97.4% for no invasion reflects these structural barriers and the absence of any authorizing conditions or large-scale triggers in 2026. A sudden, unprecedented cartel attack on US soil or a sharp reversal in Mexican policy could still introduce volatility, though full-scale invasion would face steep legal, logistical, and diplomatic hurdles.