Traders assign China only a roughly 4% chance of launching an invasion of Taiwan by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics surges, or force posture shifts that would signal an imminent cross-strait campaign. Beijing continues gray-zone pressure through air and naval incursions, live-fire drills in the Strait, and maritime enforcement, while Taiwan’s recently concluded Han Kuang exercises emphasized reservist mobilization, anti-blockade drills, drone integration, and electronic warfare resilience. Economic interdependence, sanctions risks, and U.S. security commitments raise the costs of kinetic action. With limited time remaining, any shift would require rapid, observable changes that have not materialized. Sudden diplomatic rupture or internal PRC decisions remain low-probability variables that could still alter the trajectory.