The short remaining timeline to 2027, combined with sustained US extended deterrence commitments to allies such as Japan, South Korea, and NATO members, underpins the strong trader consensus against a new nuclear acquisition. These security guarantees, reaffirmed through joint statements and military cooperation, continue to limit incentives for independent programs. No ally has launched a declared weapons effort capable of reaching operational status within the window, while NPT obligations, IAEA monitoring, and technical hurdles like fissile material production impose substantial delays. Recent diplomatic engagements have focused on non-proliferation rather than proliferation pathways, reinforcing the low implied probability of an outcome before the deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$143,611 KL.
$143,611 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$143,611 KL.
$143,611 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The short remaining timeline to 2027, combined with sustained US extended deterrence commitments to allies such as Japan, South Korea, and NATO members, underpins the strong trader consensus against a new nuclear acquisition. These security guarantees, reaffirmed through joint statements and military cooperation, continue to limit incentives for independent programs. No ally has launched a declared weapons effort capable of reaching operational status within the window, while NPT obligations, IAEA monitoring, and technical hurdles like fissile material production impose substantial delays. Recent diplomatic engagements have focused on non-proliferation rather than proliferation pathways, reinforcing the low implied probability of an outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Thị trường mở: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Khối lượng
$143,611Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The short remaining timeline to 2027, combined with sustained US extended deterrence commitments to allies such as Japan, South Korea, and NATO members, underpins the strong trader consensus against a new nuclear acquisition. These security guarantees, reaffirmed through joint statements and military cooperation, continue to limit incentives for independent programs. No ally has launched a declared weapons effort capable of reaching operational status within the window, while NPT obligations, IAEA monitoring, and technical hurdles like fissile material production impose substantial delays. Recent diplomatic engagements have focused on non-proliferation rather than proliferation pathways, reinforcing the low implied probability of an outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Khối lượng
$143,611Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The short remaining timeline to 2027, combined with sustained US extended deterrence commitments to allies such as Japan, South Korea, and NATO members, underpins the strong trader consensus against a new nuclear acquisition. These security guarantees, reaffirmed through joint statements and military cooperation, continue to limit incentives for independent programs. No ally has launched a declared weapons effort capable of reaching operational status within the window, while NPT obligations, IAEA monitoring, and technical hurdles like fissile material production impose substantial delays. Recent diplomatic engagements have focused on non-proliferation rather than proliferation pathways, reinforcing the low implied probability of an outcome before the deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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