The compressed timeline until December 31, 2026, combined with technical, legal, and political barriers, underpins trader consensus against any US ally acquiring an independent nuclear weapon. South Korea and Japan continue public debates over latency or sharing options amid North Korean advances, yet their governments have explicitly ruled out independent arsenals, reprocessing rights, or NPT withdrawal in recent statements. Saudi Arabia’s July 2026 US nuclear cooperation agreements emphasize peaceful uses and nonproliferation safeguards without granting enrichment consent. NATO allies focus on existing US extended deterrence and nuclear-sharing arrangements rather than new programs, with Poland rejecting forward deployment. No ally has initiated a breakout effort that could yield a tested or operational weapon in the remaining months.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật5% khả năng
$212,871 KL.
$212,871 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
5% khả năng
$212,871 KL.
$212,871 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The compressed timeline until December 31, 2026, combined with technical, legal, and political barriers, underpins trader consensus against any US ally acquiring an independent nuclear weapon. South Korea and Japan continue public debates over latency or sharing options amid North Korean advances, yet their governments have explicitly ruled out independent arsenals, reprocessing rights, or NPT withdrawal in recent statements. Saudi Arabia’s July 2026 US nuclear cooperation agreements emphasize peaceful uses and nonproliferation safeguards without granting enrichment consent. NATO allies focus on existing US extended deterrence and nuclear-sharing arrangements rather than new programs, with Poland rejecting forward deployment. No ally has initiated a breakout effort that could yield a tested or operational weapon in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Thị trường mở: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Khối lượng
$212,871Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The compressed timeline until December 31, 2026, combined with technical, legal, and political barriers, underpins trader consensus against any US ally acquiring an independent nuclear weapon. South Korea and Japan continue public debates over latency or sharing options amid North Korean advances, yet their governments have explicitly ruled out independent arsenals, reprocessing rights, or NPT withdrawal in recent statements. Saudi Arabia’s July 2026 US nuclear cooperation agreements emphasize peaceful uses and nonproliferation safeguards without granting enrichment consent. NATO allies focus on existing US extended deterrence and nuclear-sharing arrangements rather than new programs, with Poland rejecting forward deployment. No ally has initiated a breakout effort that could yield a tested or operational weapon in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Khối lượng
$212,871Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The compressed timeline until December 31, 2026, combined with technical, legal, and political barriers, underpins trader consensus against any US ally acquiring an independent nuclear weapon. South Korea and Japan continue public debates over latency or sharing options amid North Korean advances, yet their governments have explicitly ruled out independent arsenals, reprocessing rights, or NPT withdrawal in recent statements. Saudi Arabia’s July 2026 US nuclear cooperation agreements emphasize peaceful uses and nonproliferation safeguards without granting enrichment consent. NATO allies focus on existing US extended deterrence and nuclear-sharing arrangements rather than new programs, with Poland rejecting forward deployment. No ally has initiated a breakout effort that could yield a tested or operational weapon in the remaining months.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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