Recent US and Israeli military strikes have significantly damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, leaving its roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium stockpiles inaccessible or buried and halting active production. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations under a June 2026 memorandum of understanding emphasize IAEA-monitored down-blending and verification, with the agency reporting no solid evidence of rebuilding or resumed enrichment through late August. Trader consensus on "No" reflects these setbacks, extended breakout timelines, and sustained diplomatic and sanctions pressure that have kept the program dormant. Even with near-certain odds, unresolved access disputes or a collapse in talks could allow Iran to attempt reconstitution or clandestine use of existing material before 2027.