**Recent talks between Benny Gantz’s Blue and White and Gilad Erdan’s Unity party have not produced an agreement to run jointly, supporting the 72% “No” probability on Polymarket.** Unity, a new right-wing party launched in early August 2026 by Likud defectors Erdan and Yuli Edelstein, emphasizes universal military service and a broad Zionist government excluding both extremes. Blue and White, led by Gantz, has suffered multiple defections and consistently polls below the 3.25% electoral threshold ahead of the October 27 election. Reports from late August confirm meetings and ongoing discussions, including a lengthy conversation on August 26 and public confirmation by both leaders on August 28, yet both sides stress that no pact exists and further talks are needed before the September 8 slate-submission deadline. Polls underscore the parties’ weakness when running separately—Unity and Blue and White each receive under 2%—while broader center-right fragmentation and competing merger efforts (such as Gantz’s existing alliance with Dedi Simchi) reduce the immediate incentive or feasibility of a Unity–Blue and White joint list. Traders appear to view the conversations as exploratory rather than conclusive, given the short timeline, differing party origins, and absence of any formal commitment. Late-stage negotiations could still shift the outlook, but current evidence points to separate candidacies as the more probable outcome.