**Recent diplomatic signals have not shifted trader expectations that a new country will formalize ties with Israel under the Abraham Accords framework before 2027.** Israeli Ambassador to the UAE Yossi Shelley stated in mid-September 2026 that another signatory—possibly Kuwait—could emerge within four to six months, citing shifting regional dynamics. However, Kuwait faces entrenched parliamentary opposition from Islamist and nationalist factions, and no confirmed negotiations or commitments have surfaced. Saudi Arabia, long viewed as the pivotal candidate, continues to condition normalization on concrete progress toward Palestinian statehood, a stance reinforced amid ongoing regional tensions. U.S. efforts, including conditioning a civilian nuclear agreement on accession, have not produced movement, while Riyadh advances alternative security alignments with Turkey and Pakistan. Upgrades such as Israel-Morocco embassy exchanges deepen existing ties but do not add new members. With roughly three months remaining and no verified breakthroughs, the 90.8% implied probability for “No” reflects the significant procedural, political, and diplomatic hurdles that have stalled expansion since 2020.