Escalating military tensions between Israel and Iran, including the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, represent the primary driver of trader assessments for potential Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary shutdowns occurred between February and July 2026 amid US-Israeli operations and Iranian missile or drone responses, with additional short-notice restrictions in June following a Yemen-launched projectile. As of mid-August, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open, though EASA and other regulators maintain elevated risk advisories citing threats from Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah. International carriers continue to limit operations, reflecting persistent volatility that could trigger further restrictions depending on diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$27,300,755 KL.
Jul 14, 2026
August 31
3%
September 30
10%
$27,300,755 KL.
August 31
$1,268,290 KL.
3%
September 30
$585 KL.
10%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Escalating military tensions between Israel and Iran, including the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, represent the primary driver of trader assessments for potential Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary shutdowns occurred between February and July 2026 amid US-Israeli operations and Iranian missile or drone responses, with additional short-notice restrictions in June following a Yemen-launched projectile. As of mid-August, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open, though EASA and other regulators maintain elevated risk advisories citing threats from Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah. International carriers continue to limit operations, reflecting persistent volatility that could trigger further restrictions depending on diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Khối lượng
$27,300,755Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Escalating military tensions between Israel and Iran, including the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, represent the primary driver of trader assessments for potential Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary shutdowns occurred between February and July 2026 amid US-Israeli operations and Iranian missile or drone responses, with additional short-notice restrictions in June following a Yemen-launched projectile. As of mid-August, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open, though EASA and other regulators maintain elevated risk advisories citing threats from Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah. International carriers continue to limit operations, reflecting persistent volatility that could trigger further restrictions depending on diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$27,300,755Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating military tensions between Israel and Iran, including the July 2026 breakdown of the US-Iran ceasefire and renewed strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, represent the primary driver of trader assessments for potential Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary shutdowns occurred between February and July 2026 amid US-Israeli operations and Iranian missile or drone responses, with additional short-notice restrictions in June following a Yemen-launched projectile. As of mid-August, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open, though EASA and other regulators maintain elevated risk advisories citing threats from Iranian proxies such as Hezbollah. International carriers continue to limit operations, reflecting persistent volatility that could trigger further restrictions depending on diplomatic or military developments in the coming weeks.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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