**Trader consensus on no U.S. ground invasion of Iran before 2027 reflects the pattern of the 2026 conflict, which featured extensive U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on nuclear, military, and leadership targets beginning February 28 but stopped short of large-scale troop deployments on the Iranian mainland.** A June 17 memorandum of understanding established a ceasefire framework, reopened the Strait of Hormuz under conditions, and launched follow-on negotiations, though sporadic strikes and violations have persisted into September. Recent developments include intermittent exchanges near the strait, U.S. economic pressure, and statements from President Trump prioritizing diplomatic off-ramps and post-midterm de-escalation. Analysts note that full-scale ground operations would require substantial additional forces and carry high risks of escalation and casualties, consistent with the limited scope of operations to date. With less than four months remaining in 2026 and active talks underway, the market pricing aligns with the absence of confirmed plans or preparations for an invasion.