Recent U.S.-Iran hostilities, including the February–May 2026 Operation Epic Fury airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Iranian missile retaliation plus Strait of Hormuz disruptions, have centered on air, missile, and naval actions rather than ground forces. Ceasefire negotiations and a July memorandum of understanding collapsed amid renewed strikes, yet U.S. officials and analysts continue to highlight prohibitive risks, casualties, and lack of political support for any large-scale invasion or occupation of Iranian territory. With the 2026 election cycle approaching and emphasis on limited pressure tactics over regime-change ground campaigns, trader consensus assigns roughly three-quarters probability that no U.S. invasion occurs before 2027.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiệu Mỹ có xâm lược Iran trước năm 2027?
Liệu Mỹ có xâm lược Iran trước năm 2027?
Có
$51,853,399 KL.
$51,853,399 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
$51,853,399 KL.
$51,853,399 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S.-Iran hostilities, including the February–May 2026 Operation Epic Fury airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Iranian missile retaliation plus Strait of Hormuz disruptions, have centered on air, missile, and naval actions rather than ground forces. Ceasefire negotiations and a July memorandum of understanding collapsed amid renewed strikes, yet U.S. officials and analysts continue to highlight prohibitive risks, casualties, and lack of political support for any large-scale invasion or occupation of Iranian territory. With the 2026 election cycle approaching and emphasis on limited pressure tactics over regime-change ground campaigns, trader consensus assigns roughly three-quarters probability that no U.S. invasion occurs before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$51,853,399Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent U.S.-Iran hostilities, including the February–May 2026 Operation Epic Fury airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Iranian missile retaliation plus Strait of Hormuz disruptions, have centered on air, missile, and naval actions rather than ground forces. Ceasefire negotiations and a July memorandum of understanding collapsed amid renewed strikes, yet U.S. officials and analysts continue to highlight prohibitive risks, casualties, and lack of political support for any large-scale invasion or occupation of Iranian territory. With the 2026 election cycle approaching and emphasis on limited pressure tactics over regime-change ground campaigns, trader consensus assigns roughly three-quarters probability that no U.S. invasion occurs before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Khối lượng
$51,853,399Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-Iran hostilities, including the February–May 2026 Operation Epic Fury airstrikes that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and prompted Iranian missile retaliation plus Strait of Hormuz disruptions, have centered on air, missile, and naval actions rather than ground forces. Ceasefire negotiations and a July memorandum of understanding collapsed amid renewed strikes, yet U.S. officials and analysts continue to highlight prohibitive risks, casualties, and lack of political support for any large-scale invasion or occupation of Iranian territory. With the 2026 election cycle approaching and emphasis on limited pressure tactics over regime-change ground campaigns, trader consensus assigns roughly three-quarters probability that no U.S. invasion occurs before 2027.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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