Recent diplomatic efforts and the pattern of limited U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, rather than ground operations, underpin the 75.5% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding mediated by Pakistan halted major hostilities from the February 2026 campaign, though July incidents involving Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz triggered renewed U.S. strikes and temporary pauses for talks. Official statements emphasize containment of missile and naval targets without plans for territorial control. Ongoing negotiations on nuclear issues and sanctions relief, alongside historical reluctance for large-scale ground commitments in the region, further shape market pricing ahead of the December 2026 resolution window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiệu Mỹ có xâm lược Iran trước năm 2027?
Liệu Mỹ có xâm lược Iran trước năm 2027?
Có
$51,530,245 KL.
$51,530,245 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
$51,530,245 KL.
$51,530,245 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent diplomatic efforts and the pattern of limited U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, rather than ground operations, underpin the 75.5% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding mediated by Pakistan halted major hostilities from the February 2026 campaign, though July incidents involving Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz triggered renewed U.S. strikes and temporary pauses for talks. Official statements emphasize containment of missile and naval targets without plans for territorial control. Ongoing negotiations on nuclear issues and sanctions relief, alongside historical reluctance for large-scale ground commitments in the region, further shape market pricing ahead of the December 2026 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$51,530,245Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Recent diplomatic efforts and the pattern of limited U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, rather than ground operations, underpin the 75.5% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding mediated by Pakistan halted major hostilities from the February 2026 campaign, though July incidents involving Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz triggered renewed U.S. strikes and temporary pauses for talks. Official statements emphasize containment of missile and naval targets without plans for territorial control. Ongoing negotiations on nuclear issues and sanctions relief, alongside historical reluctance for large-scale ground commitments in the region, further shape market pricing ahead of the December 2026 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Khối lượng
$51,530,245Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent diplomatic efforts and the pattern of limited U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, rather than ground operations, underpin the 75.5% trader consensus against a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding mediated by Pakistan halted major hostilities from the February 2026 campaign, though July incidents involving Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz triggered renewed U.S. strikes and temporary pauses for talks. Official statements emphasize containment of missile and naval targets without plans for territorial control. Ongoing negotiations on nuclear issues and sanctions relief, alongside historical reluctance for large-scale ground commitments in the region, further shape market pricing ahead of the December 2026 resolution window.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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