Recent de-escalation in the 2026 US-Iran conflict underpins the 87.5% "No" odds. Following February airstrikes and a spring ceasefire, US and Iranian officials finalized a memorandum of understanding in mid-June to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the US naval blockade, and address sanctions relief and reconstruction. The framework sets a 60-day window for further talks on Iran's nuclear program and highly enriched uranium stockpile, with formal signing expected imminently. These steps reflect sustained diplomatic momentum via Pakistani mediation, alongside US force posture adjustments in the region. Traders view a ground invasion as improbable before 2027 absent major new escalations, given the current trajectory toward phased agreements and the substantial military, political, and economic barriers to such an operation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiệu Mỹ có xâm lược Iran trước năm 2027?
Có
$37,783,440 KL.
$37,783,440 KL.
Có
$37,783,440 KL.
$37,783,440 KL.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Recent de-escalation in the 2026 US-Iran conflict underpins the 87.5% "No" odds. Following February airstrikes and a spring ceasefire, US and Iranian officials finalized a memorandum of understanding in mid-June to end hostilities, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, lift the US naval blockade, and address sanctions relief and reconstruction. The framework sets a 60-day window for further talks on Iran's nuclear program and highly enriched uranium stockpile, with formal signing expected imminently. These steps reflect sustained diplomatic momentum via Pakistani mediation, alongside US force posture adjustments in the region. Traders view a ground invasion as improbable before 2027 absent major new escalations, given the current trajectory toward phased agreements and the substantial military, political, and economic barriers to such an operation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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