Recent diplomatic progress between the United States and Iran, including a June 14 memorandum of understanding set for formal signing on June 19, has reinforced trader expectations against a U.S. invasion before 2027. The agreement addresses the Strait of Hormuz blockade, sanctions relief, reduced regional military presence, and a 60-day window for nuclear program talks, following months of U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, Iranian missile and drone retaliation, and a fragile April ceasefire. Ongoing mediation by Pakistan and direct high-level contacts, such as those in Islamabad, signal preference for negotiated outcomes over ground operations. While sporadic exchanges and Israeli concerns over proxies and missiles persist, the trajectory favors de-escalation through diplomacy rather than expanded U.S. troop commitments in Iran.