Amid fragile truce efforts following the February 28 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that ignited the 2026 Iran war, traders price a 73.5% chance against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027, reflecting de-escalation signals like Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefires and upcoming Islamabad talks potentially resuming this weekend. Recent naval escalations—including U.S. blockades of Iranian ports, Iranian gunboats firing on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, and over 10,000 additional troops plus carriers deploying—have spiked invasion speculation, yet official emphasis on diplomacy, high risks of ground operations amid public war fatigue (60% viewing actions as excessive), and Tehran's nuclear restraint pledges sustain skepticism. Ceasefire deadlines and Hormuz maritime status remain pivotal catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiệu Mỹ có xâm lược Iran trước năm 2027?
Liệu Mỹ có xâm lược Iran trước năm 2027?
Có
$12,078,974 KL.
$12,078,974 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
$12,078,974 KL.
$12,078,974 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Amid fragile truce efforts following the February 28 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that ignited the 2026 Iran war, traders price a 73.5% chance against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027, reflecting de-escalation signals like Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefires and upcoming Islamabad talks potentially resuming this weekend. Recent naval escalations—including U.S. blockades of Iranian ports, Iranian gunboats firing on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, and over 10,000 additional troops plus carriers deploying—have spiked invasion speculation, yet official emphasis on diplomacy, high risks of ground operations amid public war fatigue (60% viewing actions as excessive), and Tehran's nuclear restraint pledges sustain skepticism. Ceasefire deadlines and Hormuz maritime status remain pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$12,078,974Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Amid fragile truce efforts following the February 28 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that ignited the 2026 Iran war, traders price a 73.5% chance against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027, reflecting de-escalation signals like Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefires and upcoming Islamabad talks potentially resuming this weekend. Recent naval escalations—including U.S. blockades of Iranian ports, Iranian gunboats firing on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, and over 10,000 additional troops plus carriers deploying—have spiked invasion speculation, yet official emphasis on diplomacy, high risks of ground operations amid public war fatigue (60% viewing actions as excessive), and Tehran's nuclear restraint pledges sustain skepticism. Ceasefire deadlines and Hormuz maritime status remain pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Khối lượng
$12,081,236Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid fragile truce efforts following the February 28 U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that ignited the 2026 Iran war, traders price a 73.5% chance against a U.S. ground invasion before 2027, reflecting de-escalation signals like Pakistan-brokered two-week ceasefires and upcoming Islamabad talks potentially resuming this weekend. Recent naval escalations—including U.S. blockades of Iranian ports, Iranian gunboats firing on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, and over 10,000 additional troops plus carriers deploying—have spiked invasion speculation, yet official emphasis on diplomacy, high risks of ground operations amid public war fatigue (60% viewing actions as excessive), and Tehran's nuclear restraint pledges sustain skepticism. Ceasefire deadlines and Hormuz maritime status remain pivotal catalysts.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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