Diplomatic channels, sanctions enforcement, and support for regional allies continue to define U.S. policy toward Iran, with no verified announcements or troop movements signaling preparation for direct invasion before 2027. Recent proxy conflicts have produced targeted U.S. responses rather than escalation to full-scale operations. Congressional oversight and executive statements prioritize containment and nuclear negotiations over military intervention. This environment supports the current trader consensus reflected in the 75.5% implied probability for no invasion, though rapid shifts could occur if new diplomatic breakdowns or attacks alter the trajectory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiệu Mỹ có xâm lược Iran trước năm 2027?
Liệu Mỹ có xâm lược Iran trước năm 2027?
Có
$51,517,210 KL.
$51,517,210 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
$51,517,210 KL.
$51,517,210 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Diplomatic channels, sanctions enforcement, and support for regional allies continue to define U.S. policy toward Iran, with no verified announcements or troop movements signaling preparation for direct invasion before 2027. Recent proxy conflicts have produced targeted U.S. responses rather than escalation to full-scale operations. Congressional oversight and executive statements prioritize containment and nuclear negotiations over military intervention. This environment supports the current trader consensus reflected in the 75.5% implied probability for no invasion, though rapid shifts could occur if new diplomatic breakdowns or attacks alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$51,517,210Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.Diplomatic channels, sanctions enforcement, and support for regional allies continue to define U.S. policy toward Iran, with no verified announcements or troop movements signaling preparation for direct invasion before 2027. Recent proxy conflicts have produced targeted U.S. responses rather than escalation to full-scale operations. Congressional oversight and executive statements prioritize containment and nuclear negotiations over military intervention. This environment supports the current trader consensus reflected in the 75.5% implied probability for no invasion, though rapid shifts could occur if new diplomatic breakdowns or attacks alter the trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Khối lượng
$51,517,210Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 12:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic channels, sanctions enforcement, and support for regional allies continue to define U.S. policy toward Iran, with no verified announcements or troop movements signaling preparation for direct invasion before 2027. Recent proxy conflicts have produced targeted U.S. responses rather than escalation to full-scale operations. Congressional oversight and executive statements prioritize containment and nuclear negotiations over military intervention. This environment supports the current trader consensus reflected in the 75.5% implied probability for no invasion, though rapid shifts could occur if new diplomatic breakdowns or attacks alter the trajectory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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