Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability to no Chinese invasion of Taiwan by September 30, 2026, reflecting the absence of mobilization, amphibious preparations, or command readiness indicators within the remaining two-week window. Beijing continues gray-zone pressure through coast guard patrols, maritime surveys east of the island, and exercises emphasizing blockade or quarantine operations rather than joint landings, consistent with assessments that military purges have constrained PLA command capacity for complex cross-strait operations. Taiwan has responded with supplementary defense budgets for munitions and unmanned systems while monitoring routine air and naval activity. The only plausible shifts in this short horizon would require an abrupt, unforeseen escalation from miscalculation or external trigger, though no such developments have materialized in recent diplomatic or military reporting.