Traders assign a 99.6% implied probability that China will not invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026, driven mainly by the extremely limited time remaining for the planning, mobilization, and execution of a major amphibious assault. Cross-strait military postures show continued exercises and surveillance but no verified surge in invasion-ready forces or logistics over the past month. Diplomatic engagement and intelligence assessments reflect no acute crisis triggering immediate action. Historical patterns indicate that such operations require extended preparation periods far exceeding the current window. Unlikely late developments, including an unforeseen escalation or miscalculation by either side, remain the only realistic variables that could alter the outcome before resolution.