Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense 2026 report, released in late August, assessed that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the amphibious lift, sustained logistics, and joint control capabilities required for a full-scale invasion, though gray-zone patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea activity around the island continue at elevated levels. Taiwan has responded with record defense budgets, expanded drone integration in live-fire drills, and modernization of anti-ship systems, while U.S. arms support remains a variable ahead of the planned Trump-Xi summit. These factors, alongside the high operational risks and costs of any cross-strait operation, underpin the market’s strong consensus against an invasion occurring by the end of 2027, though analysts note that capability gaps could narrow later in the decade.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
12% khả năng
$3,225,429 KL.
$3,225,429 KL.
Dec 31, 2027
Kiếm 3.25%
12% khả năng
$3,225,429 KL.
$3,225,429 KL.
Dec 31, 2027
Kiếm 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense 2026 report, released in late August, assessed that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the amphibious lift, sustained logistics, and joint control capabilities required for a full-scale invasion, though gray-zone patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea activity around the island continue at elevated levels. Taiwan has responded with record defense budgets, expanded drone integration in live-fire drills, and modernization of anti-ship systems, while U.S. arms support remains a variable ahead of the planned Trump-Xi summit. These factors, alongside the high operational risks and costs of any cross-strait operation, underpin the market’s strong consensus against an invasion occurring by the end of 2027, though analysts note that capability gaps could narrow later in the decade.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,225,429Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2028Thị trường mở
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense 2026 report, released in late August, assessed that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the amphibious lift, sustained logistics, and joint control capabilities required for a full-scale invasion, though gray-zone patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea activity around the island continue at elevated levels. Taiwan has responded with record defense budgets, expanded drone integration in live-fire drills, and modernization of anti-ship systems, while U.S. arms support remains a variable ahead of the planned Trump-Xi summit. These factors, alongside the high operational risks and costs of any cross-strait operation, underpin the market’s strong consensus against an invasion occurring by the end of 2027, though analysts note that capability gaps could narrow later in the decade.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$3,225,429Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2028Thị trường mở
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense 2026 report, released in late August, assessed that the People’s Liberation Army still lacks the amphibious lift, sustained logistics, and joint control capabilities required for a full-scale invasion, though gray-zone patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea activity around the island continue at elevated levels. Taiwan has responded with record defense budgets, expanded drone integration in live-fire drills, and modernization of anti-ship systems, while U.S. arms support remains a variable ahead of the planned Trump-Xi summit. These factors, alongside the high operational risks and costs of any cross-strait operation, underpin the market’s strong consensus against an invasion occurring by the end of 2027, though analysts note that capability gaps could narrow later in the decade.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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