Ongoing diplomatic channels and military posturing short of direct confrontation have sustained trader consensus against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by late 2027. No major escalatory military actions or official declarations signaling imminent conflict have emerged in recent weeks, keeping focus on gray-zone activities such as air and naval incursions around the island rather than invasion preparations. U.S. arms commitments, alliance coordination with partners, and Taiwan's defensive enhancements continue to shape risk assessments. With resolution still more than a year away, these steady deterrence factors underpin the elevated probability assigned to no invasion occurring within the timeframe.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
$2,527,762 KL.
$2,527,762 KL.
Dec 31, 2027
Kiếm 3.25%
$2,527,762 KL.
$2,527,762 KL.
Dec 31, 2027
Kiếm 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing diplomatic channels and military posturing short of direct confrontation have sustained trader consensus against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by late 2027. No major escalatory military actions or official declarations signaling imminent conflict have emerged in recent weeks, keeping focus on gray-zone activities such as air and naval incursions around the island rather than invasion preparations. U.S. arms commitments, alliance coordination with partners, and Taiwan's defensive enhancements continue to shape risk assessments. With resolution still more than a year away, these steady deterrence factors underpin the elevated probability assigned to no invasion occurring within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,527,762Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Ongoing diplomatic channels and military posturing short of direct confrontation have sustained trader consensus against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by late 2027. No major escalatory military actions or official declarations signaling imminent conflict have emerged in recent weeks, keeping focus on gray-zone activities such as air and naval incursions around the island rather than invasion preparations. U.S. arms commitments, alliance coordination with partners, and Taiwan's defensive enhancements continue to shape risk assessments. With resolution still more than a year away, these steady deterrence factors underpin the elevated probability assigned to no invasion occurring within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$2,527,762Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2027Thị trường mở
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Ongoing diplomatic channels and military posturing short of direct confrontation have sustained trader consensus against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan by late 2027. No major escalatory military actions or official declarations signaling imminent conflict have emerged in recent weeks, keeping focus on gray-zone activities such as air and naval incursions around the island rather than invasion preparations. U.S. arms commitments, alliance coordination with partners, and Taiwan's defensive enhancements continue to shape risk assessments. With resolution still more than a year away, these steady deterrence factors underpin the elevated probability assigned to no invasion occurring within the timeframe.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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