**Ongoing diplomatic engagement and prior framework extensions underpin the elevated trader consensus for a US-China tariff agreement by December 31, 2026.** Following the November 2025 Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement and subsequent Trump-Xi meetings in 2026, including the May Beijing summit, the two sides have maintained suspended heightened reciprocal tariffs, extended Section 301 exclusions, and implemented targeted concessions on agricultural purchases, rare earth controls, and market access. US actions have included phased reductions and continued pauses, while China has suspended retaliatory duties on US goods and extended exclusion processes, with several measures explicitly running through November or December 2026. Recent July 2026 tariff adjustments applied moderated rates to Chinese imports alongside dozens of other partners, without triggering escalation or collapse of talks. Administration statements indicate intent to stabilize around levels consistent with the prior truce rather than revert to peak rates. These developments—coupled with scheduled bilateral channels and the approaching expiration windows for existing suspensions—align with the market's implied probability, reflecting trader assessment of continued negotiation momentum over the remainder of the year.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
$216,997 KL.
$216,997 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$216,997 KL.
$216,997 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**Ongoing diplomatic engagement and prior framework extensions underpin the elevated trader consensus for a US-China tariff agreement by December 31, 2026.**
Following the November 2025 Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement and subsequent Trump-Xi meetings in 2026, including the May Beijing summit, the two sides have maintained suspended heightened reciprocal tariffs, extended Section 301 exclusions, and implemented targeted concessions on agricultural purchases, rare earth controls, and market access. US actions have included phased reductions and continued pauses, while China has suspended retaliatory duties on US goods and extended exclusion processes, with several measures explicitly running through November or December 2026.
Recent July 2026 tariff adjustments applied moderated rates to Chinese imports alongside dozens of other partners, without triggering escalation or collapse of talks. Administration statements indicate intent to stabilize around levels consistent with the prior truce rather than revert to peak rates. These developments—coupled with scheduled bilateral channels and the approaching expiration windows for existing suspensions—align with the market's implied probability, reflecting trader assessment of continued negotiation momentum over the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Thị trường mở: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Khối lượng
$216,997Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.**Ongoing diplomatic engagement and prior framework extensions underpin the elevated trader consensus for a US-China tariff agreement by December 31, 2026.**
Following the November 2025 Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement and subsequent Trump-Xi meetings in 2026, including the May Beijing summit, the two sides have maintained suspended heightened reciprocal tariffs, extended Section 301 exclusions, and implemented targeted concessions on agricultural purchases, rare earth controls, and market access. US actions have included phased reductions and continued pauses, while China has suspended retaliatory duties on US goods and extended exclusion processes, with several measures explicitly running through November or December 2026.
Recent July 2026 tariff adjustments applied moderated rates to Chinese imports alongside dozens of other partners, without triggering escalation or collapse of talks. Administration statements indicate intent to stabilize around levels consistent with the prior truce rather than revert to peak rates. These developments—coupled with scheduled bilateral channels and the approaching expiration windows for existing suspensions—align with the market's implied probability, reflecting trader assessment of continued negotiation momentum over the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Khối lượng
$216,997Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ongoing diplomatic engagement and prior framework extensions underpin the elevated trader consensus for a US-China tariff agreement by December 31, 2026.** Following the November 2025 Kuala Lumpur Joint Arrangement and subsequent Trump-Xi meetings in 2026, including the May Beijing summit, the two sides have maintained suspended heightened reciprocal tariffs, extended Section 301 exclusions, and implemented targeted concessions on agricultural purchases, rare earth controls, and market access. US actions have included phased reductions and continued pauses, while China has suspended retaliatory duties on US goods and extended exclusion processes, with several measures explicitly running through November or December 2026. Recent July 2026 tariff adjustments applied moderated rates to Chinese imports alongside dozens of other partners, without triggering escalation or collapse of talks. Administration statements indicate intent to stabilize around levels consistent with the prior truce rather than revert to peak rates. These developments—coupled with scheduled bilateral channels and the approaching expiration windows for existing suspensions—align with the market's implied probability, reflecting trader assessment of continued negotiation momentum over the remainder of the year.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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