Recent U.S.-China trade developments center on the 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement and subsequent extensions, which reduced certain tariffs, suspended heightened reciprocal duties until November 10, 2026, and prolonged Section 301 exclusions and China's market-based exclusion process. Ongoing bilateral discussions, including agricultural purchase commitments and framework talks on reciprocal reductions, have produced technical confirmations through mid-2026 without major escalations. The existing truce structure and scheduled review ahead of the November 2026 expiration create a narrow window for further formalization. Trader consensus at 88.6% Yes reflects these procedural extensions and negotiation continuity as the dominant factors shaping the probability of an agreement by December 31, 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
$216,989 KL.
$216,989 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$216,989 KL.
$216,989 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China trade developments center on the 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement and subsequent extensions, which reduced certain tariffs, suspended heightened reciprocal duties until November 10, 2026, and prolonged Section 301 exclusions and China's market-based exclusion process. Ongoing bilateral discussions, including agricultural purchase commitments and framework talks on reciprocal reductions, have produced technical confirmations through mid-2026 without major escalations. The existing truce structure and scheduled review ahead of the November 2026 expiration create a narrow window for further formalization. Trader consensus at 88.6% Yes reflects these procedural extensions and negotiation continuity as the dominant factors shaping the probability of an agreement by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Thị trường mở: May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ET
Khối lượng
$216,989Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Recent U.S.-China trade developments center on the 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement and subsequent extensions, which reduced certain tariffs, suspended heightened reciprocal duties until November 10, 2026, and prolonged Section 301 exclusions and China's market-based exclusion process. Ongoing bilateral discussions, including agricultural purchase commitments and framework talks on reciprocal reductions, have produced technical confirmations through mid-2026 without major escalations. The existing truce structure and scheduled review ahead of the November 2026 expiration create a narrow window for further formalization. Trader consensus at 88.6% Yes reflects these procedural extensions and negotiation continuity as the dominant factors shaping the probability of an agreement by December 31, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Khối lượng
$216,989Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 29, 2026, 9:10 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S.-China trade developments center on the 2025 Kuala Lumpur arrangement and subsequent extensions, which reduced certain tariffs, suspended heightened reciprocal duties until November 10, 2026, and prolonged Section 301 exclusions and China's market-based exclusion process. Ongoing bilateral discussions, including agricultural purchase commitments and framework talks on reciprocal reductions, have produced technical confirmations through mid-2026 without major escalations. The existing truce structure and scheduled review ahead of the November 2026 expiration create a narrow window for further formalization. Trader consensus at 88.6% Yes reflects these procedural extensions and negotiation continuity as the dominant factors shaping the probability of an agreement by December 31, 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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