US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA inspectors withdrawn and no verified resumption of uranium enrichment as of March 2026 assessments. Iranian officials have stated their enriched uranium stockpiles remain under rubble with no recovery plans, while intelligence reports indicate no structured weapons program or active weaponization efforts. Satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain and Taleghan 2, focused on concealment rather than testing infrastructure. These verified setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic pressures and lack of detectable preparations for a nuclear explosion, underpin trader consensus that no test will occur before 2027, though undetected advances or shifts in Iranian policy remain potential variables.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$200,361 KL.
$200,361 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$200,361 KL.
$200,361 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA inspectors withdrawn and no verified resumption of uranium enrichment as of March 2026 assessments. Iranian officials have stated their enriched uranium stockpiles remain under rubble with no recovery plans, while intelligence reports indicate no structured weapons program or active weaponization efforts. Satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain and Taleghan 2, focused on concealment rather than testing infrastructure. These verified setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic pressures and lack of detectable preparations for a nuclear explosion, underpin trader consensus that no test will occur before 2027, though undetected advances or shifts in Iranian policy remain potential variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$200,361Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA inspectors withdrawn and no verified resumption of uranium enrichment as of March 2026 assessments. Iranian officials have stated their enriched uranium stockpiles remain under rubble with no recovery plans, while intelligence reports indicate no structured weapons program or active weaponization efforts. Satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain and Taleghan 2, focused on concealment rather than testing infrastructure. These verified setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic pressures and lack of detectable preparations for a nuclear explosion, underpin trader consensus that no test will occur before 2027, though undetected advances or shifts in Iranian policy remain potential variables.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$200,361Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli airstrikes in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged or destroyed key Iranian enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA inspectors withdrawn and no verified resumption of uranium enrichment as of March 2026 assessments. Iranian officials have stated their enriched uranium stockpiles remain under rubble with no recovery plans, while intelligence reports indicate no structured weapons program or active weaponization efforts. Satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction at sites like Pickaxe Mountain and Taleghan 2, focused on concealment rather than testing infrastructure. These verified setbacks, combined with ongoing diplomatic pressures and lack of detectable preparations for a nuclear explosion, underpin trader consensus that no test will occur before 2027, though undetected advances or shifts in Iranian policy remain potential variables.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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