US-Israeli airstrikes since June 2025 have destroyed critical Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and parts of Isfahan, significantly delaying enrichment capabilities and weaponization efforts, per IAEA reports and US intelligence assessments as of early 2026. The IAEA's February 27, 2026, safeguards update noted Iran's 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium stored underground but verified no diversion to military use amid limited inspections of damaged sites; Director General Grossi emphasized in March that strikes cannot fully eliminate the program but have created verification gaps without signs of testing. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations in Pakistan further signal restraint. Trader consensus reflects these setbacks, pricing a nuclear test before 2027 as unlikely barring undetected advances or escalation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
$170,707 KL.
$170,707 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$170,707 KL.
$170,707 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes since June 2025 have destroyed critical Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and parts of Isfahan, significantly delaying enrichment capabilities and weaponization efforts, per IAEA reports and US intelligence assessments as of early 2026. The IAEA's February 27, 2026, safeguards update noted Iran's 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium stored underground but verified no diversion to military use amid limited inspections of damaged sites; Director General Grossi emphasized in March that strikes cannot fully eliminate the program but have created verification gaps without signs of testing. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations in Pakistan further signal restraint. Trader consensus reflects these setbacks, pricing a nuclear test before 2027 as unlikely barring undetected advances or escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$170,707Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.US-Israeli airstrikes since June 2025 have destroyed critical Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and parts of Isfahan, significantly delaying enrichment capabilities and weaponization efforts, per IAEA reports and US intelligence assessments as of early 2026. The IAEA's February 27, 2026, safeguards update noted Iran's 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium stored underground but verified no diversion to military use amid limited inspections of damaged sites; Director General Grossi emphasized in March that strikes cannot fully eliminate the program but have created verification gaps without signs of testing. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations in Pakistan further signal restraint. Trader consensus reflects these setbacks, pricing a nuclear test before 2027 as unlikely barring undetected advances or escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$170,707Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Israeli airstrikes since June 2025 have destroyed critical Iranian nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and parts of Isfahan, significantly delaying enrichment capabilities and weaponization efforts, per IAEA reports and US intelligence assessments as of early 2026. The IAEA's February 27, 2026, safeguards update noted Iran's 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium stored underground but verified no diversion to military use amid limited inspections of damaged sites; Director General Grossi emphasized in March that strikes cannot fully eliminate the program but have created verification gaps without signs of testing. Ongoing US-Iran negotiations in Pakistan further signal restraint. Trader consensus reflects these setbacks, pricing a nuclear test before 2027 as unlikely barring undetected advances or escalation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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