Iran’s nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable with stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium buried under rubble. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding committed Tehran to maintaining the nuclear status quo and reaffirmed its NPT obligations, though follow-on talks have stalled without restoring full IAEA access to damaged locations. Satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction at peripheral sites such as Parchin and Pickaxe Mountain, yet no verified resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities. With roughly four months remaining before 2027 and the program described by officials and analysts as dormant, traders assess the barriers to conducting a nuclear test in the resolution window as substantial.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIran nuclear test before 2027?
Iran nuclear test before 2027?
6% khả năng
$251,515 KL.
$251,515 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
6% khả năng
$251,515 KL.
$251,515 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable with stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium buried under rubble. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding committed Tehran to maintaining the nuclear status quo and reaffirmed its NPT obligations, though follow-on talks have stalled without restoring full IAEA access to damaged locations. Satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction at peripheral sites such as Parchin and Pickaxe Mountain, yet no verified resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities. With roughly four months remaining before 2027 and the program described by officials and analysts as dormant, traders assess the barriers to conducting a nuclear test in the resolution window as substantial.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$251,515Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable with stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium buried under rubble. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding committed Tehran to maintaining the nuclear status quo and reaffirmed its NPT obligations, though follow-on talks have stalled without restoring full IAEA access to damaged locations. Satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction at peripheral sites such as Parchin and Pickaxe Mountain, yet no verified resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities. With roughly four months remaining before 2027 and the program described by officials and analysts as dormant, traders assess the barriers to conducting a nuclear test in the resolution window as substantial.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran conducts a nuclear test by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Iran that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Iran may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Iran. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Iran.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$251,515Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 2:43 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Iran’s nuclear facilities sustained extensive damage from U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026, leaving key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan largely inoperable with stockpiles of 60 percent enriched uranium buried under rubble. A June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding committed Tehran to maintaining the nuclear status quo and reaffirmed its NPT obligations, though follow-on talks have stalled without restoring full IAEA access to damaged locations. Satellite imagery shows limited reconstruction at peripheral sites such as Parchin and Pickaxe Mountain, yet no verified resumption of large-scale enrichment or weaponization activities. With roughly four months remaining before 2027 and the program described by officials and analysts as dormant, traders assess the barriers to conducting a nuclear test in the resolution window as substantial.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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