The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program for annual assessments confirming the arsenal remains safe and effective without yield-producing detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with other nations prompted immediate clarification from administration officials that implementation remains under review, with no decision on full-scale underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Technical readiness timelines of 24–36 months, Senate oversight of related programs, and the February 2026 expiration of New START have kept near-term probabilities low in trader consensus. Ongoing diplomatic signals, suspected low-yield activities by China, and continued emphasis on subcritical experiments or delivery-system tests shape the current positioning, with any shift dependent on presidential direction and congressional funding decisions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtThử nghiệm hạt nhân của Hoa Kỳ bởi...?
Thử nghiệm hạt nhân của Hoa Kỳ bởi...?
$667,628 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
30 tháng 6, 2026
2%
30 tháng 9, 2026
5%
31 tháng 12, 2026
9%
$667,628 KL.
30 tháng 6, 2026
$40,220 KL.
2%
30 tháng 9, 2026
$6,673 KL.
5%
31 tháng 12, 2026
$10,517 KL.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program for annual assessments confirming the arsenal remains safe and effective without yield-producing detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with other nations prompted immediate clarification from administration officials that implementation remains under review, with no decision on full-scale underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Technical readiness timelines of 24–36 months, Senate oversight of related programs, and the February 2026 expiration of New START have kept near-term probabilities low in trader consensus. Ongoing diplomatic signals, suspected low-yield activities by China, and continued emphasis on subcritical experiments or delivery-system tests shape the current positioning, with any shift dependent on presidential direction and congressional funding decisions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Khối lượng
$667,628Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program for annual assessments confirming the arsenal remains safe and effective without yield-producing detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with other nations prompted immediate clarification from administration officials that implementation remains under review, with no decision on full-scale underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Technical readiness timelines of 24–36 months, Senate oversight of related programs, and the February 2026 expiration of New START have kept near-term probabilities low in trader consensus. Ongoing diplomatic signals, suspected low-yield activities by China, and continued emphasis on subcritical experiments or delivery-system tests shape the current positioning, with any shift dependent on presidential direction and congressional funding decisions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$667,628Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear weapons testing since 1992, relying instead on the Stockpile Stewardship Program for annual assessments confirming the arsenal remains safe and effective without yield-producing detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with other nations prompted immediate clarification from administration officials that implementation remains under review, with no decision on full-scale underground explosive tests at the Nevada National Security Site. Technical readiness timelines of 24–36 months, Senate oversight of related programs, and the February 2026 expiration of New START have kept near-term probabilities low in trader consensus. Ongoing diplomatic signals, suspected low-yield activities by China, and continued emphasis on subcritical experiments or delivery-system tests shape the current positioning, with any shift dependent on presidential direction and congressional funding decisions.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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