President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations, initially raised prospects for activity at the Nevada National Security Site. Subsequent administration statements have clarified that planned efforts center on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and system validation rather than full-yield explosive detonations, consistent with the ongoing Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program that has certified the arsenal without underground tests since 1992. Congressional measures requiring prior approval, combined with repeated certifications from lab directors and U.S. Strategic Command that explosive testing is unnecessary, have reinforced procedural and political constraints. With no such test conducted through mid-2026 and markets reflecting trader consensus on these barriers, near-term resolution hinges on any presidential follow-through or legislative shifts before year-end deadlines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtThử nghiệm hạt nhân của Hoa Kỳ bởi...?
Thử nghiệm hạt nhân của Hoa Kỳ bởi...?
$794,203 KL.
Sep 30, 2026
30 tháng 9, 2026
1%
31 tháng 12, 2026
5%
$794,203 KL.
30 tháng 9, 2026
$57,435 KL.
1%
31 tháng 12, 2026
$75,957 KL.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations, initially raised prospects for activity at the Nevada National Security Site. Subsequent administration statements have clarified that planned efforts center on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and system validation rather than full-yield explosive detonations, consistent with the ongoing Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program that has certified the arsenal without underground tests since 1992. Congressional measures requiring prior approval, combined with repeated certifications from lab directors and U.S. Strategic Command that explosive testing is unnecessary, have reinforced procedural and political constraints. With no such test conducted through mid-2026 and markets reflecting trader consensus on these barriers, near-term resolution hinges on any presidential follow-through or legislative shifts before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Khối lượng
$794,203Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations, initially raised prospects for activity at the Nevada National Security Site. Subsequent administration statements have clarified that planned efforts center on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and system validation rather than full-yield explosive detonations, consistent with the ongoing Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program that has certified the arsenal without underground tests since 1992. Congressional measures requiring prior approval, combined with repeated certifications from lab directors and U.S. Strategic Command that explosive testing is unnecessary, have reinforced procedural and political constraints. With no such test conducted through mid-2026 and markets reflecting trader consensus on these barriers, near-term resolution hinges on any presidential follow-through or legislative shifts before year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$794,203Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China, citing alleged low-yield violations, initially raised prospects for activity at the Nevada National Security Site. Subsequent administration statements have clarified that planned efforts center on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and system validation rather than full-yield explosive detonations, consistent with the ongoing Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program that has certified the arsenal without underground tests since 1992. Congressional measures requiring prior approval, combined with repeated certifications from lab directors and U.S. Strategic Command that explosive testing is unnecessary, have reinforced procedural and political constraints. With no such test conducted through mid-2026 and markets reflecting trader consensus on these barriers, near-term resolution hinges on any presidential follow-through or legislative shifts before year-end deadlines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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