President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with rivals sparked the market, yet subsequent Energy Department clarifications emphasized non-explosive simulations and stockpile stewardship rather than underground detonations. The United States has observed a moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, and technical preparations at the Nevada site would require 18–36 months even if authorized. New START’s February 2026 expiration removed one arms-control constraint, but proposed legislation would mandate congressional approval for any resumption. No explosive tests have occurred, and official assessments continue to affirm the stockpile’s safety without them. These factors sustain low trader-implied probabilities for a test by year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtThử nghiệm hạt nhân của Hoa Kỳ bởi...?
Thử nghiệm hạt nhân của Hoa Kỳ bởi...?
$667,628 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
30 tháng 6, 2026
2%
30 tháng 9, 2026
5%
31 tháng 12, 2026
9%
$667,628 KL.
30 tháng 6, 2026
$40,220 KL.
2%
30 tháng 9, 2026
$6,673 KL.
5%
31 tháng 12, 2026
$10,517 KL.
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with rivals sparked the market, yet subsequent Energy Department clarifications emphasized non-explosive simulations and stockpile stewardship rather than underground detonations. The United States has observed a moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, and technical preparations at the Nevada site would require 18–36 months even if authorized. New START’s February 2026 expiration removed one arms-control constraint, but proposed legislation would mandate congressional approval for any resumption. No explosive tests have occurred, and official assessments continue to affirm the stockpile’s safety without them. These factors sustain low trader-implied probabilities for a test by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Khối lượng
$667,628Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with rivals sparked the market, yet subsequent Energy Department clarifications emphasized non-explosive simulations and stockpile stewardship rather than underground detonations. The United States has observed a moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, and technical preparations at the Nevada site would require 18–36 months even if authorized. New START’s February 2026 expiration removed one arms-control constraint, but proposed legislation would mandate congressional approval for any resumption. No explosive tests have occurred, and official assessments continue to affirm the stockpile’s safety without them. These factors sustain low trader-implied probabilities for a test by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$667,628Ngày kết thúc
Mar 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume nuclear weapons testing “on an equal basis” with rivals sparked the market, yet subsequent Energy Department clarifications emphasized non-explosive simulations and stockpile stewardship rather than underground detonations. The United States has observed a moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, and technical preparations at the Nevada site would require 18–36 months even if authorized. New START’s February 2026 expiration removed one arms-control constraint, but proposed legislation would mandate congressional approval for any resumption. No explosive tests have occurred, and official assessments continue to affirm the stockpile’s safety without them. These factors sustain low trader-implied probabilities for a test by year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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