Traders assign a 92.8% probability against NATO invoking Article 5 before 2027 because Russia remains heavily committed in Ukraine and lacks the capacity for a major armed attack on alliance territory without risking direct confrontation. Recent U.S. intelligence assessments highlight possible Russian hybrid probes or limited incursions on the eastern flank as soon as fall 2026, yet these fall short of the threshold for collective defense and have prompted only Article 4 consultations, as seen with drone incursions over Poland and Estonia. The July 2026 Ankara summit produced an explicit reaffirmation of the “ironclad” Article 5 commitment by all members, including the United States, alongside sustained European defense spending increases and aid pledges to Ukraine. These developments reinforce deterrence and make a qualifying trigger event before the end of 2026 appear remote to market participants.