Trader consensus favors seven countries at 31.6% implied probability, closely trailed by eight at 23.5%, reflecting six confirmed theaters of U.S. military action in 2026 so far—Iran amid the ongoing war sparked by February 28 joint strikes with Israel, Venezuela via the January special operations raid, Somalia with intensified AFRICOM airstrikes including April 6-7 operations against al-Shabaab and ISIS, plus counterterrorism strikes in Syria, militia targets in Iraq, and Houthi operations in Yemen. The tight race stems from debates over whether recent Eastern Pacific strikes against drug smuggling count as a seventh distinct country and uncertainty around proxy vs. direct actions. Escalation signals, such as continued CENTCOM strikes into Iran reported April 11 or potential new theaters in Africa or the Caribbean, could push toward eight or more by year-end, while de-escalation diplomacy might cap at six.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMỹ sẽ tiến hành hành động quân sự chống lại bao nhiêu quốc gia khác nhau vào năm 2026?
Mỹ sẽ tiến hành hành động quân sự chống lại bao nhiêu quốc gia khác nhau vào năm 2026?
7 31.6%
8 23.5%
9 14.4%
6 10.0%
$973,953 KL.
$973,953 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
6
10%
7
32%
8
24%
9
14%
10
9%
11
5%
12
3%
13
2%
14
1%
15+
1%
7 31.6%
8 23.5%
9 14.4%
6 10.0%
$973,953 KL.
$973,953 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
6
$423,302 KL.
10%
7
$6,863 KL.
32%
8
$105,384 KL.
24%
9
$11,435 KL.
14%
10
$11,969 KL.
9%
11
$17,452 KL.
5%
12
$28,463 KL.
3%
13
$47,269 KL.
2%
14
$42,131 KL.
1%
15+
$119,843 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors seven countries at 31.6% implied probability, closely trailed by eight at 23.5%, reflecting six confirmed theaters of U.S. military action in 2026 so far—Iran amid the ongoing war sparked by February 28 joint strikes with Israel, Venezuela via the January special operations raid, Somalia with intensified AFRICOM airstrikes including April 6-7 operations against al-Shabaab and ISIS, plus counterterrorism strikes in Syria, militia targets in Iraq, and Houthi operations in Yemen. The tight race stems from debates over whether recent Eastern Pacific strikes against drug smuggling count as a seventh distinct country and uncertainty around proxy vs. direct actions. Escalation signals, such as continued CENTCOM strikes into Iran reported April 11 or potential new theaters in Africa or the Caribbean, could push toward eight or more by year-end, while de-escalation diplomacy might cap at six.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
Khối lượng
$973,953Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors seven countries at 31.6% implied probability, closely trailed by eight at 23.5%, reflecting six confirmed theaters of U.S. military action in 2026 so far—Iran amid the ongoing war sparked by February 28 joint strikes with Israel, Venezuela via the January special operations raid, Somalia with intensified AFRICOM airstrikes including April 6-7 operations against al-Shabaab and ISIS, plus counterterrorism strikes in Syria, militia targets in Iraq, and Houthi operations in Yemen. The tight race stems from debates over whether recent Eastern Pacific strikes against drug smuggling count as a seventh distinct country and uncertainty around proxy vs. direct actions. Escalation signals, such as continued CENTCOM strikes into Iran reported April 11 or potential new theaters in Africa or the Caribbean, could push toward eight or more by year-end, while de-escalation diplomacy might cap at six.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$973,953Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors seven countries at 31.6% implied probability, closely trailed by eight at 23.5%, reflecting six confirmed theaters of U.S. military action in 2026 so far—Iran amid the ongoing war sparked by February 28 joint strikes with Israel, Venezuela via the January special operations raid, Somalia with intensified AFRICOM airstrikes including April 6-7 operations against al-Shabaab and ISIS, plus counterterrorism strikes in Syria, militia targets in Iraq, and Houthi operations in Yemen. The tight race stems from debates over whether recent Eastern Pacific strikes against drug smuggling count as a seventh distinct country and uncertainty around proxy vs. direct actions. Escalation signals, such as continued CENTCOM strikes into Iran reported April 11 or potential new theaters in Africa or the Caribbean, could push toward eight or more by year-end, while de-escalation diplomacy might cap at six.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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