US policy has long opposed formal recognition of territorial changes achieved by force, a stance reflected in repeated references to the Welles Doctrine and evident in the absence of any official acknowledgment of Russian sovereignty over Ukrainian regions including Crimea or the Donbas. Recent US-mediated talks involving envoys in Moscow and Kyiv have highlighted territory as the central unresolved obstacle, with Ukrainian officials rejecting concessions and Russian demands for de jure recognition unmet. Trader consensus at 96% for no recognition before 2027 aligns with this continuity despite diplomatic activity through late 2026. A sudden trilateral agreement or executive decision formalizing acceptance of Russian control over occupied areas could still shift the outcome before year-end, though current positions show no such movement.